San Francisco Giants: 5 Reasons They Won't Win the World Series

For Major League Baseball, Opening Day has already come upon us, with two early games in the books in Tokyo, Japan. Two down, some 4,600 more to go.

For the majority of teams who have yet to begin their seasons, there is still time to clean up their rosters, devise lineups and straighten out their pitching rotations. The San Francisco Giants are no different.

And yet before they have even touched the field for their season opener, baseball prognosticators have already scripted their fate for the 2012 campaign. In fact, SportsIllustrated.com has gazed into their crystal ball and forecasted that by season’s end, the San Francisco Giants will not only have won the National League West division, but they’ll breeze through the postseason all the way toward a rematch of the 2002 World Series against the Los Angeles Angels.

No pressure.

While it’s always fun to look ahead and predict how the ensuing six-plus months will turn out, it also provides us some time to play devil’s advocate.

Here are five reasons why the Giants will not win the National League pennant and advance to the World Series in 2012.

Inability to Overcome Injuries

Last season, the Giants were significantly infected with the injury bug—big nasty bugs that fed upon the team’s superstars: Buster Posey, Freddy Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval and Brian Wilson, among others. As a result of their injuries, the Giants stumbled through the season, made a very feeble attempt at claiming a postseason berth and were, ultimately, unable to defend their championship title.

Several lessons were learned from last year’s club, the most important of which is the fact that based on the construct of the team, unfortunately they are unable to overcome such maladies within their lineup. Which only magnified how magical of a run they had in 2010. The 2011 rendition, simply could not make up for the loss of Posey’s bat, Sanchez’ veteran presence and Wilson’s imposing dominance both on and off the field.

Though Posey is deemed to be close to 100 percent, it’s not a sure thing that he’ll be able to be at full strength all of the time throughout the season. Manager Bruce Bochy has admitted that he’ll baby Posey a little bit, playing him at first base on occasion and also sitting him out of games more often in order to limit Posey from the rigors of everyday catching.

Clearly they are not certain of his durability at that position just yet. Even though he’ll likely play over 130 games or so, on the days when he is out of the lineup, the Giants will have to shuffle their lineup and batting order so that they can make up for Posey’s offense.

Which is not easy to do. Especially given the fact that Sanchez is still yet to fully recover from his own injury last year. After having surgery on his throwing shoulder, Sanchez was expected to be ready in time for Opening Day; but it’s looking a lot more likely that the Giants will place him on the disabled list to start the season.

Even though it’s only a short couple of weeks at the beginning of the year, Sanchez’ history in San Francisco should be a cause of worry and skepticism for the team. In his two-plus seasons as a Giant, Sanchez has missed nearly 200 games due to injuries. Will he be able to play at full strength this season? Especially given the fact that he’s 34 years old?

Despite the fact that the Giants are poised to be stronger and healthier, one can’t help but wonder what could happen should any member of the starting lineup be indisposed for lengthy periods of time. Yes, all teams will succumb to injuries and missed games. But is San Francisco capable of truly overcoming those obstacles? As last season demonstrated, the Giants need to be as close to running on all cylinders as possible, for as long as possible.

As it stands, the roster of inexperienced hitters and somewhat fragile pitching might signal that San Francisco will run out of steam come postseason. They’ll need to make sure that the exterminator comes through the clubhouse periodically to eradicate the injury bug.

No Offense

No offense, but the Giants have no offense.

One of the major problems from last year’s Giants squad was the dearth of production up and down the entire lineup. After the slew of injuries that devastated the Giants clubhouse, Aubrey Huff was the only player to have enough bats to qualify for the batting title. Thus, he led the team—with a .246 batting average.

Sadness.

San Francisco’s three best hitters, Pablo Sandoval, Freddy Sanchez and Buster Posey, missed a combined 264 games due to injuries. That left the team emaciated on offense. They wound up scoring the fewest runs in the National League, 23 runs fewer than the San Diego Padres. Which is astonishing considering that the Padres finished their season with 30 fewer home runs!

Certainly, the return of Posey and Sanchez will improve upon those numbers—and a healthy Sandoval can only make matters better for the Giants. But even with those three back in the lineup, it’s not a guarantee that San Francisco will be able to score runs.

Last year, in the months of April and May, when all three were healthy, the Giants had a hard time getting out of the gate. In April, the team batted .244, with 96 runs scored in 25 games; in May, they batted .239 with 90 runs in 28 games.

Who’s to say that a healthy Posey and Sandoval is the key to jump-starting the team’s offense?

The Giants hope that the key to the ignition will be new lead-off hitter Angel Pagan. Though he had a substandard 2011 with the New York Mets, Pagan is expected to set the table ahead of the big bats—Sandoval and Posey.

However, there are no clear indications that Pagan is the right man for the job. He is a career .279 hitter, which does bode well for him and the team; but career numbers mean nothing when playing in the vast expanse that is AT&T Park, where Pagan is a career .069 hitter—though the sample size is indeed small.

Additional questions loom above the Giants veterans. Huff is clearly on the downside of his career and can’t be expected to be major contributor to the offense. An additional offseason acquisition, Melky Cabrera is coming off a career year with the Kansas City Royals, but again, the issue of whether he can succeed in the National League will have to be played out.

On paper, the lineup doesn’t look terrible—if everybody is healthy. And yet, the lineup is not terribly imposing either. Aside from Sandoval and Posey, the Giants clearly lack power—and even those two players might not hit more than 25 home runs in a season. San Francisco will be focused on playing fundamental baseball, manufacturing enough runs to outscore the opposition behind their vaunted starting pitching staff.

But in the playoffs, they’ll need to be able to score runs and put up crooked numbers every once in a while. That is probably not going to happen with the roster the Giants currently have. Look for another trading deadline deal to try to bolster up the offense, just like they did last season.

Here’s hoping it works in 2012.

Instability at First Base

Though he was a catalyst to the team’s World Series run in 2010, Aubrey Huff seems to be running out of juice late in his career. The 35-year-old Huff had a rough go of it last season, batting a woeful .246, with 12 home runs, 59 runs batted in and 45 runs scored—his lowest marks since 2001.

Clearly he is in decline, and the Giants should not expect him to be a significant force in the lineup in 2012. Though he provides versatility by playing first base and right field, Huff may need to ultimately be replaced in the lineup by some younger legs. Especially given his waning productivity at the plate.

Last season, Huff batted .237 against right-handed pitching, which is not a good sign. His OPS was an abysmal .671 versus right-handers.

Surely the Giants can find suitable candidates to fulfill Huff’s spot at first base. Brett Pill showed signs last season that he could be a viable option to become the starting first baseman. And Brandon Belt is hoping to see playing time at first base sometime this season.

In the meantime, if the Giants want to continue trudging along with a pedestrian offense, they’ll keep Huff out there and hope that his hitting warms up this season. However, if San Francisco wants to make it to the World Series, it’s going to need some power hitting from the first base position. And unfortunately, Huff will not be able to provide that this year.

Barry Zito

Inevitably, the blame for any failures of a team can be placed on a scapegoat. And year in and year out, Giants fans can point their fingers at Barry Zito.

The 33-year-old lefty enters his sixth season with San Francisco, with each passing season seemingly getting worse and worse. In 2011, Zito went to the disabled list for the first time in his 12-year career—which probably was a good thing for Giants fans. Unfortunately for them, Zito is back and healthy. And the Giants have no choice but to throw him out there as their fifth starter.

This does not bode well for San Francisco’s dreams of making postseason. After all, if Zito is thrust to take the mound every five days, the Giants will undoubtedly lose 90 percent of those starts. If they somehow manage to win more often, it’ll cost the entire team in the long run.

The offense will feel pressure to score more than seven runs a game. The bullpen will have to be ready by the third inning. Which means more pinch-hitting situations earlier in the ball game. A true cataclysm of events every five days.

Not good.

Yes, the Giants went on to win the World Series in spite of Zito, but they left him off the playoff roster. That obviously says something about the Giants aspirations and how Zito fits into them. If San Francisco wants to make another appearance in the World Series, they’re going to have to sit Zito early and often.

Opposing Teams Are Better

There’s no doubt that the Giants are a talented team. With the offseason acquisitions, and the reemergence of Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Madison Bumgarner, the Giants can at least replicate how good the can be on paper.

But on the field is a different story. And San Francisco does not offer an daunting roster for teams like the Philadelphia Phillies or the new-look Miami Marlins. Even their inter-division rival Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the NL West last season, might not shake in their boots in the short shadow of the San Francisco Giants.

Yes, the Giants have two of the best starters in the game in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. But beyond that, it’s a toss-up as to whether they can string together long winning streaks and outscore the opposition. Certainly if they were to face the Phillies in a seven-game series in the postseason, Philadelphia’s offense would be more of a threat, and their pitching staff would be equally imposing.

San Francisco has a tidy mix of young prospects who are looking to break out of their shells in 2012 along with some salt-and-pepper veterans who might hobble their ways through the entire season. But they might just be green with youth and gray with age in the wrong places.

Lincecum will have a bounceback season, but Zito is likely to offset that with terribleness. Shortstop Brandon Crawford appears to be on the cusp of an impressive performance, but second baseman Freddy Sanchez is an oft-injured zombie. Melky Cabrera might have a decent season in his first year as a Giant, but veteran Nate Schierholtz might have a bad season, after years of not demonstrating significant prowess.

Who knows?

At the end of it all, San Francisco has a formidable squad, one that could win their fair share of games and take the NL West crown. But they’ll need to do a heck of a lot more in order to advance in the playoffs. Right now the chemistry is just not right. They need the type of chemistry that magically guided them during their 2010 run.

If they can re-harness that charm in order to advance to the World Series. Right now they’re just a good-looking team. Looks can get you only so far.

Follow me on Twitter: @nathanieljue