Why Buffalo Bills Will Compete for AFC East Title in 2012

Buffalo Bills fans have been waiting 17 years to read that headline. 

It’s been a long time coming for Buffalo, who hasn’t won a division title since 1995. In fact, even the Indianapolis Colts, who moved to the AFC South in 2002, have a more recent AFC East division crown than the Bills.

I should admit, though, I’ve felt that the Bills could compete for a title prior to this upcoming season, and my friends and family will tell you it’s the same story with me every season. “This is the year” has become my catchphrase.

But the eternal hope and optimism I hold for the Bills each offseason has never been more legitimate or believable than it is right now.

Buffalo is coming off yet another disappointing season, finishing the 2011-12 campaign by losing eight of its last nine games. Not exactly the most convincing start to this argument of mine. A few of those games were close contests, but ultimately, injuries to key players proved to be too costly for a young team without much depth, trying to establish an identity.

Such a poor finish to the season makes it easy to forget just how hot Buffalo started out, though. After finally ending their 15-game losing streak to the New England Patriots in Week 3, the Bills gave away a win against the Bengals before beating Philadelphia and barely coming up short against the New York Giants.

If not for a few missed opportunities against the Bengals and Giants, the Bills were on track to be 6-0 before the bye week.

And that’s the kind of optimism I have coursing through me heading into 2012.

One of the Bills’ biggest weaknesses last year was putting pressure on the quarterback. After experimenting with a transition to a 3-4 base defense, the Bills struggled to make things work up front. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kyle Williams’ season-ending injury didn’t help, but ultimately the Bills just didn’t have the right personnel.

The defense finished the season with a meager 29 sacks, 10 of which came in one game during a Week 8 smashing of the Washington Redskins. That means Buffalo recorded only 19 sacks in the other 15 games.

Yikes.

Defensive coordinator George Edwards was relieved of his duties at season’s end, and head coach Chan Gailey appointed longtime friend Dave Wannstedt to take over the defense. With Wannstedt’s experience and success in the 4-3, Buffalo smartly decided to make a switch back to a four-man front and let Wanny do what he does best.

Still, the Bills needed to upgrade their personnel if they were to really improve their pass rush heading into 2012. And they did just that with a couple of big free-agent acquisitions.

Mario Williams and Mark Anderson were inked to long-term deals, and they carry with them the pressure of giving the Bills a much-needed boost in the sack department; or if nothing else, putting a little pressure on opposing quarterbacks to disrupt the passing game.

With Kyle Williams on schedule to return at full health and second-year pro Marcell Dareus already a force, it shouldn’t be a problem.

The improved pass rush will directly help the Bills secondary as well, which already features a talented core of key players. Veteran corner Terrence McGee sensed a good recipe brewing in town and decided to restructure his contract, providing the front office with a little extra wiggle room for free agency.

McGee is a solid corner when healthy, and his new contract is a fair one considering the amount of time he’s missed over the past few seasons.

Second-year corners Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers will look to improve on strong rookie campaigns, while former first-round pick Leodis McKelvin will do his best to shake that bust label off his back.

Drayton Florence is a physical corner who matches up well in the slot. And at safety, George Wilson, Jairus Byrd, Bryan Scott and Da’Norris Searcy are high-quality players finally discovering their respective niches. 

Buffalo finished sixth in the NFL last year with 20 interceptions, and that was without putting any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Having real talent now up front to crash the edges while Williams and Dareus push the pocket inside should enable the secondary to make even more plays in 2012.

While the Bills defense was putrid in the sack department last season, the offensive line was ironically superb. The big men up front gave up only 23 sacks all of last year, good enough for tops in the league in that category.

Of course, part of that ranking can be credited to Gailey’s spread system and Ryan Fitzpatrick's ability to make reads and get the ball out of his hands at a gunslinger’s pace. But the blockers have to get some credit too.

Starting left tackle Demetrius Bell is likely to move on in free agency, so the Bills will need to figure out what to do to fill his position.

Last year’s fourth-round draft choice Chris Hairston looked good in Bell’s absence while getting some valuable game experience, and he may very well be the leading candidate to take over the blind side. Look for Buffalo to find another quality tackle in the draft, as it continues to establish depth and unity across all five O-line positions.

The interior offensive line is one of the better groups in the league with center Eric Wood and left guard Andy Levitre anchoring things down.

Meanwhile, journeyman Erik Pears stepped up big time last year at right tackle. He even earned himself a long-term contract extension in the middle of the season.

As a whole, the group should be effective again in 2012 and continue to enable Fitzpatrick to make plays.

Fans can also rightfully expect the offensive skill players to be clicking on all cylinders the way they were last year prior to the injury bug hitting town.

Before injuries to starters Fred Jackson, Eric Wood, Demetrius Bell and Donald Jones, the offense was rolling. But with those guys going down, along with wide receivers Marcus Easley and Roscoe Parrish early in the season, the offense lost its rhythm.

Recent news has also emerged from Fox Sports' Alex Marvez regarding Fitzpatrick and a severe rib injury he suffered during the season. It’s hard enough to play quarterback in the NFL, but it’s even harder when a quarterback’s supporting cast is out, and his ribs are badly hurt.

Despite suffering so many setbacks, though, Buffalo’s offense still managed to finish 14th in the league in points scored.

Tight end Scott Chandler had a breakout season and scored six touchdowns. No. 1 wideout Steve Johnson went for over 1,000 yards receiving. Fred Jackson was having an MVP-like season before going down. And C.J. Spiller finally emerged in FredEx’s absence. 

More importantly, in Fitzpatrick’s first career 16-game season, he attempted the most passes of his career (569), while also completing his highest career completion percentage (62 percent). Fitz set other career highs by throwing for 3,832 passing yards and 24 touchdowns.

Although he tossed 23 interceptions to pair with those scores, Fitz will be working with new quarterbacks coach David Lee this offseason to correct some of those mistakes.

With two dynamic running backs, a premier No. 1 wideout, a capable starting quarterback and an increasingly effective offensive line, Buffalo is in great position to make a big jump next season.

Ultimately, my optimism for the Bills comes down to two things.

First, their defense as a whole is sure to improve next year simply by getting more pressure up front. Second, their offense has already begun to take major steps forward and should continue to do so based on the progress they’ve made over the past two years.

For example, despite back-to-back losing seasons under Gailey, it’s evident that the Bills have vastly improved offensively and are on pace to get over the hump next year:

In 2010, the Bills ranked 24th in the NFL in passing yards. In 2011, they ranked 15th.

In 2010, the Bills ranked 18th in the NFL in rushing yards. In 2011, they ranked 13th.

In 2010, the Bills ranked 23rd in the NFL in offensive touchdowns. In 2011, they ranked 11th.

What this data suggests is that in year three under Chan Gailey, the Bills’ offense has the potential to be a top 10 unit.

The Bills stumbled against Miami last year, but they should be able to do a better job against their rushing attack with better personnel.

They proved they could beat New England, which has finally established a new level of confidence in the locker room.

As for the Jets? They can have Tim Tebow. When he came to Buffalo as a Denver Bronco last year, the Bills effectively shut him down.

With Buffalo’s defense set to be a major upgrade and its offense trending in the right direction, it’s safe to say that the other teams in the AFC East are going to have their hands full with the Bills in 2012.