Boston Red Sox: 10 Reasons Felix Doubront Deserves the No. 5 Spot

After the failures (and subsequent injuries) of John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, et al., the Boston Red Sox entered spring training in 2012 without a bona fide No. 5 starter. They have brought in a number of pitchers to compete for the rotation slot, with grizzled veterans and inexperienced rookies alike getting their shot at a major league job.

Although some candidates have already fallen out of contention, the competition is still in full swing as the Sox enter the stretch run of their Grapefruit League schedule. While several pitchers have pitched well enough to warrant consideration, one among them is especially deserving of a spot in the Sox’s rotation: Felix Doubront.

Doubront has spent his entire career climbing through the Sox organization, and he is now poised to take the next step in his career. Now is the perfect opportunity for the Sox to give him a chance to prove that he is a capable major league pitcher.

After being given a few small chances with the Sox in the previous two seasons, Doubront will likely get a chance to spend the full season with the club this year even if he is not chosen as the starter. He has proven everything he can in his 614.1 minor league innings, and the only logical place for him to spend this season is in Boston.

As a starter over the course of his entire career (he started 131 of his 134 minor league appearances), Doubront’s arm is best suited for the rotation rather than the bullpen. He has the pedigree (3.65 career ERA in the minors) deserving of an opportunity to flourish in that same role for the Red Sox.

There is a myriad of other reasons, too, that Doubront belongs in the Red Sox rotation on Opening Day. Here are 10.

Youth

At 24 years old, Felix Doubront likely has his best years ahead of him. And having started his minor league career with the Sox at age 17, he also has plenty of experience in spite of his youth.

As a whole, the Red Sox are a distinctly veteran team. While their starting pitching staff has gotten much younger (the average age of their top four starters is 28), adding Doubront to the mix would give them a player they could develop for the future.

Veterans like Vicente Padilla and Aaron Cook have value because they're known entities. However, when a team has a talented young player like Doubront available, the predictable contribution of these wily veterans loses much of its appeal.

He's a Lefty

As you can hopefully tell from the picture above, Felix Doubront is a lefty.

While the Red Sox already have one lefty starter (Jon Lester), adding another would further balance out their rotation and prevent other teams from getting in a groove over the course of a series.

Particularly in the AL East, most talented offensive clubs in baseball rely heavily on left-handed hitters. Having a left-handed starter like Doubront to throw at teams keeps hitters like Robinson Cano and Josh Hamilton off balance, which can be vital come playoff time.

Keeps Alfredo Aceves in Bullpen

Alfredo Aceves truly lived up to his nickname of “Ace” last year. The versatile right-hander was arguably the most valuable pitcher on the Red Sox staff, contributing as a starter, long reliever and setup man.

Aceves’ greatest success with the Sox last year was, undoubtedly, as a reliever. He finished with a 9-1 record and a 2.03 ERA as a reliever last year, compared to a 1-1 mark and a 5.14 ERA as a starter.

While a full spring of being stretched out as a starter might help Aceves improve upon those numbers, that is no certainty. By removing him from the bullpen, the Red Sox would not only be taking a huge gamble with their rotation, but also would be weakening a bullpen that could use Aceves’ reliable arm.

Spring Success

Felix Doubront has had an excellent spring, and although these starts have come partially against guys who will be playing in the minor leagues a couple of weeks from now, his success cannot be dismissed.

In his last two starts (a stretch of 8.2 innings), Doubront has allowed just two earned runs against the New York Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals. While has he has given up more hits than the Sox would like (10), he also has shown excellent control, walking only two batters.

Though spring success often does not correlate to regular-season dominance, Doubront’s excellent performance so far serves as a sign that he is taking this competition seriously and intends on proving that he belongs in the rotation.

Managerial Endorsement

It would be pretty tough for Felix Doubront to crack the rotation if his manager didn’t believe in him, but it seems that Bobby Valentine has become a fan.

Before Doubront’s last start, Valentine told reporters that Doubront “looks like what a big league pitcher should look like, so I wouldn't think that it would be out of the question for him to be a starter for our team.”

As a master of nebulous comments, Valentine certainly is not handing Doubront the job here. That he felt compelled to say it at all, though, indicates the legitimacy of Doubront’s campaign and also shows that Valentine is taking it very seriously.

Success in Minors

Having broken in with the Red Sox at age 17, Felix Doubront has experience at every level of their minor league system. He has, likewise, been excellent at each stop.

In two seasons with Double-A Portland, Doubront compiled a 13-6 record with a 3.09 ERA. After being promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket, he was able to maintain that pace, posting a 6-8 record with a 3.86 ERA over two seasons.

While there is obviously some difference in the numbers, the sample size of the Triple-A numbers is also smaller; Doubront threw only 107.1 innings for Pawtucket, compared to 169.0 for Portland.

No matter how you look at them, though, the numbers Doubront has posted warrant that he at least be given a chance to prove his mettle on the next level. 

AL Unfamiliar with Him

In 2007, a rookie pitcher for the Red Sox burst onto the scene in April and flummoxed teams all season long. His name? Daisuke Matsuzaka.

While the Matsuzaka years will likely not be remembered fondly in Boston, they do carry a relevant lesson regarding Felix Doubront. Matsuzaka’s success over the course of the 2007 season was due in large part to the fact that opposing hitters had never seen him before, which never allowed them to get comfortable facing him.

This type of inexperience could be helpful for Doubront as well. While he has never faced big league hitters before, so too have they never faced him. This lack of familiarity will help ease Doubront’s transition, and particularly earlier in the season, should help the Red Sox steal a few wins.

Gets Him Experience

The flip side of Felix Doubront having never faced major league hitters is that he has yet to fully experience just how difficult it is to get these guys out. He has pitched a grand total of 35.1 big league innings, with only 15.1 of those coming as a starter.

While this inexperience may be a bit of a drawback, it also represents an opportunity for the Sox to see what they have.

Over the last several years Doubront has often been mentioned as one of the organization’s better pitching prospects, and this is a perfect opportunity for the Sox to see if he will be a viable major league pitcher going forward.

Out of Minor League Options

From a purely practical standpoint, if the Sox want to keep Felix Doubront in the organization, he has to make the major league roster. His contract is out of minor league options, and if the Sox wanted to send him to Triple-A, then he’d have to clear waivers first.

There is no chance that one of the 29 other MLB teams wouldn’t give him a shot on a major league roster.

Even if the Sox feel that Doubront needs a little more seasoning as a starter before he is deemed ready, the lack of options force them into an uncomfortable decision. Doubront has struggled as a long reliever (5.40 ERA in 20.0 innings), and they don’t want to lose him to another team.

The logical answer, then, is that he must be given an opportunity to start.

Better Than Alternatives

Of the candidates the Sox have brought in to camp to compete for the spot, some (Carlos Silva) are already gone, while others (Ross Ohlendorf, Aaron Cook, Andrew Miller) are so far behind due to injury that they are no longer in the running.

The final three contenders appear to be Felix Doubront, Alfredo Aceves and Vicente Padilla.

Padilla’s age and injury history raise immediate red flags, especially given that he hasn’t worked a full season as a starter since 2008. It makes more sense for the Sox to use him in long relief, where his fragile right forearm will not be worked as much.

As has previously been discussed, Aceves belongs in the bullpen. He has far greater value to the Sox as a reliever (2.03 ERA) than as a starter (5.14 ERA), and given that he has only made eight total starts in his four-year career, he is no lock to be successful over the course of an entire season.

We are left with Doubront, who has managed to stay relatively healthy over the course of his career in addition to spending that entire time as a starter.