Bold Predictions for Jeremy Lin, Carmelo Anthony and Knicks During Playoff Push

The New York Knicks have been about as confusing a team as exists this year. Every time you think they're going to gain traction they go into a tailspin, and every time they look like they're going to crash and burn they look like they pull out of their tailspin. 

The Knicks are the only team in the NBA with both a winning a streak and a losing streak of at least six games. They are the only team with at least two of each type of streak of at least four games. They are the only team with at least three such streaks of three games. 

The word you're looking for here is "roller coaster." Cheering for the Knicks this year can have you searching for you stomach. 

So having said that I'm going to take the unenviable task of trying to predict how the Knicks are going to play out during their playoff push. 

Carmelo Anthony will revert to the norm. Since the coaching change, Carmelo Anthony has taken 12.33 shots per game in the three games the Knicks have payed. Over the course of his career he's taken 19.2. On the season he's taken 17.8.

Part of the reason for the Knicks' woes before was a conflict between Anthony's desire and/or ability to score and Mike D'Antoni's egalitarian system. Now his penchant for the isolation play, along with new coach Mike Woodson's affection for the play, are inevitably going to result in an iso-heavy offense led by Carmelo Anthony. In his last season with Atlanta, Woodson's Hawks were the third most reliant team on iso plays. 

Whether it's a good thing or a bad thing is a matter of debate. Sometimes it will be one and at other times the other. Either way, he'll shoot more than 20 times a game for the remainder of the season. 

Jeremy Lin will prove himself. There are those that say that "Linsanity" is over, and perhaps the insanity part is, but Jeremy Lin's career is not. Minus the hyperbolic expectations, he's still playing solid NBA basketball.

To listen to some you'd think he disappeared, but over the last  10 games he's averaging 15.6 points and 7.4 assists per game. He's also cut down his turnovers, averaging just 3.5 per game as the offense is less reliant on him. 

Those numbers are realistic expectations for the rest of the season. Lin will average 15 and seven for the duration. 

Amar'e Stoudemire will finish strong. Stoudemire has shown signs of getting better as he's shed some weight. His overall numbers are slightly declined, but that has a lot to do with his minutes being down. What's compelling here is his field-goal percentage is way up, from .467 on the season to .533 over the last 10 games. 

Stoudemire will shoot better than .500 for the rest of the season and start showing signs of the "pre-Melo" Stoudemire that was in the MVP conversation. 

Baron Davis will be in and out. When you're at Davis' age and conditioning, the injuries come fast and furious. After he finally got into the lineup for 12 games, he is out again with a strained right hamstring. Davis will be inconsistent and in-and-out, which is going to force the team to rely on Lin. Baron Davis will not play in more than 25 games for the Knicks this season. 

The Knicks' defense is for real. One of my pet rants is the whole "narrative versus story" thing. What I mean by that is that I find it incredibly annoying when people set aside the actual story that is being written in favor of the preseason narrative. 

The narrative here is that the Knicks don't have a good defense. They've played good defense under Woodson, but this year they mostly played good defense under D'Antoni too. The Knicks are rated eighth in the NBA in defense, yielding just 101 points per 100 possessions. They will finish in the top 10 in defensive rating. 

The Knicks' offense is not for real. For all the talk about the Knicks' offense, it isn't as good as it seems. Woodson really isn't going to impact that very much. While the Knicks have plenty of players that can score the ball, they don't have players that move the ball or move without the ball very well. As a result, they don't do a very good job of spreading the court and creating shots through team offense. 

In the "four factors," the Knicks are in the bottom half of the NBA in three of them. They are 16th in effective field-goal percentage at .484, they are 29th in turnover percentage at .151 and they are 19th in offensive rebound percentage at .263. The only thing they do well is get to the stripe, where they are sixth in free throws per field-goal attempt. 

Most of their problems are roster related, not coaching related. They only have one good rebounder on the team, Tyson Chandler, so the offensive rebounding numbers aren't likely to change. The team's best scorers—J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire—aren't players noted for moving without the ball, cutting to the basket or coming off screens. They all score great with the ball, but the team is challenged for players that disrupt defenses by moving without it. 

Woodson's not going to change that with isolation plays. The Knicks will have some good games, but they'll have some bad ones too. They won't finish in the top 20 in offensive rating.

The Knicks will pass the Celtics for the No. 7 seed. Prior to the D'Antoni firing/resignation/departure-by-mutual-decision, I thought the Knicks were on their way out of the postseason. Now I expect them to finish strong and chase down Boston for the seventh seed in the playoffs. They will go 14-7 over their last 21 games and finish the season 35-31.