Is This Tim Duncan's Last Shot at a Title?

Since Tim Duncan came into the league in 1997, the San Antonio Spurs have remained one of the most successful franchises in all of professional sports. Even as Duncan is set to turn 36 next month, the Spurs continue to contend in a Western Conference that is deep with talented clubs. 

The road to a fifth championship won't be easy. The Oklahoma City Thunder have quickly become the team to beat in the West, and the Los Angeles Lakers aren't going anywhere. Meanwhile, young squads like the Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets and even the Minnesota Timberwolves appear poised for a rise to prominence sooner rather than later.

The MVP discussions have long since passed Duncan by, but the NBA Finals discussions have not. Indeed, San Antonio's impressive play this season may reflect a renewed urgency to get Duncan one last ring.

It might just be his last chance. Beyond this season, Duncan's age may be the least of San Antonio's concerns. The Spurs' window of opportunity to win Duncan another championship is narrowing, and here are five challenges they must surmount to extend it beyond this season.

Inside Help

DeJuan Blair has proven that he can score. Thanks to his wide frame and energy, he can also fight for rebounds.

However, at 6' 7'', Blair won't intimidate many shots in the paint.

At 6' 11'', Tiago Splitter gives San Antonio a bigger option off the bench, but the jury is still out on his ability to play 30 or more minutes a night for a championship-caliber team. It's still unclear that he'll either diversify his offensive skills significantly or become an imposing defensive presence. 

The challenge for the Spurs is simple: Coach Gregg Popovich and general manager R.C. Buford need a long-term solution who will help Tim Duncan defend the paint.

The Lakers will continue to feature at least one All-Star seven-footer for the foreseeable future, and San Antonio will need the personnel to counter that size.

Perhaps more importantly, both the Thunder and Clippers have multiple guys who can play above the rim. Should San Antonio make it to the Finals, they'll face a similar dynamic in the Miami Heat. Sure, Popovich can coach first-rate defense against mere mortals, but the best anecdote for the alley-oop is sheer length and athleticism.

Without that length, the Spurs still have a good chance to win on any given night against any given team. But, their margin for error will be will be incredibly slim against the league's emerging elite unless they find an interior complement for Duncan in his twilight.

Splitter's development may be the most convenient solution, but acquiring a known defensive commodity from outside the organization would be the surest bet. Tiago may be a nice piece for the future, but San Antonio needs a short-term fix to start alongside Duncan.

Buford may not find that fix before the March 15th trade deadline. If the Spurs don't make a play for a rental like Chris Kaman, look for the organization to explore all options during the off-season. If Duncan doesn't retire, he'll need reinforcements. 

Fading Stars

Of course it would be a stretch to say Tony Parker is fading, but nor is he likely to have any more than five years playing at his current level. Still just shy of 30, Parker isn't old, and he's displayed a court IQ this season that suggests he could be effective well into his 30s even as some of his elite speed eludes him.

To contend for a championship in its current composition, this team will need Parker to be better than "effective," though. San Antonio will need Parker to score prolifically while orchestrating an offense with lots of moving parts. If Duncan's hopes at another ring hinged on Parker alone, fans would have good reason to be hopeful.

Unfortunately, the Spurs probably need Ginobili to be in top form as well. Yes, Popovich has worked wonders without Manu in the lineup for much of this season. In the playoffs, however, Ginobili's ability to single-handedly change games will be essential.

When the star shooting guard played with a fractured arm against the Memphis Grizzlies last year, the Spurs' fate was all but sealed in the first round. When he was out entirely in the 2009 postseason against Dallas, San Antonio lost the series 4-1.

The Western Conference playoffs haven't gotten any easier. Without a healthy Ginobili, we know that even 8th seeds can be deadly.

For all we know, Ginobili could play with a clean bill of health for the duration of next season, the last on his contract. Perhaps he will re-sign for another couple of seasons and even stay healthy and productive until he's 37.

History and logic suggest otherwise. Ginobili plays hard every night. He wouldn't be the same player if he didn't. Unfortunately, that means he'll always be at risk of injury, and all the more so with age.

The Next Generation

Popovich has done a masterful job of surrounding his stars with an essentially rebuilt roster (and a young one at that). 

To win a title before Duncan retires, some of that rebuilt roster will need to step up fast. Gary Neal and Tiago Splitter have both emerged as reliable rotation pieces in their second seasons, each averaging over nine points per game. They could serve as valuable trade assets, but if they remain with San Antonio, both will need to become more consistent and take on increased roles.

San Antonio will almost certainly be hanging on to Kawhi Leonard, however. His upside is unmatched by any other young Spur.

Tony Parker raised his scoring average over six points to 15.5 per contest in his sophomore campaign. Ginobili upped his production by over five points in his second season and then by another three (to 16 points a game) in his third year. Leonard is averaging over seven points as a rookie, and if his development mirrors Parker or Ginobili, he could instantly give Duncan additional shots at a title.

If Leonard takes a step back or otherwise fails to earn the trust of Coach Popovich, this season may be Duncan's last real chance. 

Acquiring New Talent

If Duncan has any chance of returning to the Finals after this season, his best hope may come from outside San Antonio's organization. Though no franchise has done a better job of developing internal talent, no one of Duncan or Ginobili's caliber is on the horizon.

Nor will the Spurs have any optimal draft picks in the near future.

Over the next week and a half, San Antonio will have an opportunity to trade some of its youth for more established contributors. Word is that second-year guard James Anderson would like to find his way to a team offering more playing time, and the Spurs have stockpiled a number of modestly-priced young assets.

It's not certain that the Spurs have the right mix of assets to acquire the sure-to-be-moved Chris Kaman, but there are certainly other big men available. The Kings are trying to move J.J. Hickson, and the Wizards are probably willing to give Andray Blatche away for pennies on the dollar.

Those kinds of moves might not make the Spurs significantly better, but you have to imagine San Antonio would appreciate the interior depth going into the postseason.

Realistically, this team won't make any dramatic additions via trade. The Spurs' key pieces wouldn't return equal value, and management isn't interested in trading away guys who already have seasons' worth of institutional knowledge under their belts.

Free agency may be a more fruitful pursuit, however. If San Antonio amnesties Richard Jefferson following the season, it could potentially create the cap room needed to acquire a top flight free agent. Though securing money from owner Peter Holt shouldn't be an issue, attracting the cream of the crop with that money is another story. With an aging core and a small market, the Spurs are never the most sought-after destination for most stars.

The Spurs may be best served by rolling the dice on an up-and-comer like Nic Batum. If San Antonio makes the soon-to-be restricted free agent a substantial offer, the Portland Trail Blazers might balk at matching it. After all, Portland failed to agree on an extension for the young Frenchman, so there reasons to be a decent chance it will limit its spending come the summer.

These are the kinds of "ifs" that Duncan's future championship odds may very well hinge upon.

Duncan

Of course, Duncan is the single greatest variable when calculating his future title chances. Assuming he doesn't retire after the season, he could remain a quality starter for another two or three seasons. 

Even if he no longer qualifies as an All-Star by the league's standards, there's no question for Spurs fans that Duncan continues to play All-Star basketball if only in more limited minutes.

Per 48 minutes of play, Duncan is 4th among NBA centers in scoring (at 24.3 per 48 minutes), and he defends and facilitates as well as any post presence in the game. If he can continue competing at this level, San Antonio should continue to contend even if it no longer features the dominant interior game that once defined the dynasty.

Duncan's bigger contribution to his title odds may come off the court, however. When his contract runs out after the season, $21.3 million will come off San Antonio's books. 

If Duncan re-signs at a significant discount, the Spurs could be $8 to $18 million under the salary cap depending on whether the team holds on to Richard Jefferson. The less Duncan takes, the more San Antonio will have to throw at prospective free agents.

If Duncan demands the money he probably deserves, he could be his own worst enemy. If he accepts a modest paycheck, San Antonio's chances of a significant roster upgrade are far better, and Duncan's window of opportunity may remain open just a little while longer.