The Next Mike Napoli: Five Players Who Will Star with New Teams in 2012

You hear it all the time. Sometimes, all a ballplayer needs is a change of scenery. Scouts like to use the axiom because it veers off the PECOTA grid. And it happens to be true often enough to deserve consideration. Last year, Mike Napoli certainly benefited from a move to Texas, Doug Fister lifted Detroit and his profile, and J.J. Hardy regained his stroke with the Orioles, even if no one outside Baltimore noticed. 

Then again, Dan Uggla and Mark Reynolds happened. But that makes the prognostication game all the more interesting. Here are five players who have the best chance of being this year's Mike Napoli. 

1. Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres

The Reds gave up the farm to land stud starter Mat Latos this offseason, and as an admitted Cincinnati-born Reds fan I love the bold move. Perhaps one day, however, I'll rue the day Alonso left town. Especially Joey Votto leaves in free agency and Alonso has blossomed into the stud hitter everyone assumes he'll become. 

Votto will be gone after 2013, but Alonso should start producing this year. Despite now playing his home games at a horrible hitter's park (Petco's .819 Park Factor was third lowest in the big leagues in '11), Alonso is a line drive hitter with pop who sprays ropes to all fields. In limited at bats last year, he hit balls mostly on the ground (at a 43.3 percent clip) and on a line (26.9), which is a good pattern for a spacious Petco Park.

Plus, he seems to understand his situation. Regarding Petco, he told the North County Times, "It's not so much the power game, but the simple game. It's something I feel like I can do. It makes you more of a hitter than a power guy."

I like his chances. 

2. A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates

Last week, I mentioned that Erik Bedard would probably benefit from pitching in the relative seclusion of PNC Park this year.

The same goes for Burnett, who wilted under the white-hot lights of Yankee Stadium in 2010 and 2011. 

“I’d have a bad game and reporters would be at my locker for the next four days wanting to know if I figured it out,” he told the Beaver County Times. “I’m putting enough pressure on myself trying to make every pitch the perfect pitch and the outside influences just made it worse."

Not only will he not have all those reporters bugging him every day, he goes to a park that is much more favorable to pitchers. He also gets to face pitchers instead of designated hitters for the first time since 2005. Not pitching in the AL East will help, too. 

3. Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics

Reddick filled in for J.D. Drew and Carl Crawford in Boston last year, shuttling between Pawtucket and Boston until he stuck and played almost every day for the final three months.

The Red Sox collapsed, but not because of him. Reddick played solid defense and hit seven homers in 254 big league at bats. He hit 14 more in AAA, but that's probably not why Billy Beane likes him. Reddick also showed improved plate discipline, walking nearly as often as he struck out in Pawtucket. 

Right now, he looks like he'll be platooning. But just wait. Newly acquired 29-year-old OF Seth Smith has a nasty tendency to struggle against lefties. And Smith doesn't have the luxury of hitting in Coors Field anymore. If he falters, Reddick should step in and do what he did in Boston last year. And he may may do even more. 

4. Mark Melancon, Boston Red Sox

This was the steal of the offseason. Don't get me wrong, new Astros GM Jeff Luhnow had to do something to add some depth to the organization. But Melancon was easily their best and most consistent pitcher last season.

Melancon's low to mid 90s fastball has good movement, and his plus-plus curveball induces ground balls. That's how he posted a sub-3.00 ERA pitching mostly in Minute Maid Park. Red Sox Nation will love this right-hander. 

5. Marco Scutaro, Colorado Rockies

Scutaro is a good big league shortstop who will fit in nicely at second in Denver (He's already played 324 games at second in his ten-year career). According to Baseball Prospectus, Scutaro's addition at second base gives the Rockies a 2.3 WARP improvement at the position.

Yes, he is 36, but Scutaro goes from playing in hitter-friendly Fenway Park to a ballpark that's even more hitter friendly. 

That's a good thing for the Rockies, considering Scutaro has already been one of the best hitting Major League shortstops over the past two years. His .284 average is fourth, his .401 slugging pct. is 12th, and his .744 OPS is ninth among all big league shortstops. If he can stay healthy this season, he should produce again.