Minnesota Twins: Predicting the Opening Day Pitching Staff

There are plenty of things the Minnesota Twins couldn't do last season.

They couldn't stay healthy, hit, field, or make the right decisions late in games. In other words, the Twins were a mess in 2011.

However, the one thing most people point at is the pitching staff.

The Twins pitching staff was one that took a significant fall from grace as a unit last year. The starting rotation, known for their famed "pitch to contact" philosophy, often looked incapable of going deep into games leaving the team at the mercy of their bullpen.

Oh...their bullpen.

After letting long time Twins Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain leave through free agency after 2010, the Twins decided to rebuild from within.

That was a disaster as the Twins repeatedly let teams pile on throughout the season toward the end of games, and the result was one of the worst seasons in team history.

So after all of this the Twins made one significant move to address the pitching staff this offseason. While signing Jason Marquis doesn't sizzle the average Twin fan's bacon, it shows the faith that the front office has in possibly letting some of these guys rebound.

Here's a look at the pitching staff we could see when the Twins travel to Baltimore on April 6.

Starter #1: RHP Carl Pavano

In 2010, Carl Pavano was one of the best pitchers on the Twins staff.

Fueled by his Super Mario Bros. mustache, Pavano went 17-11 with a 3.75 earned run average in 221 innings pitched. Pavano even gave the New York Yankees a run for their money in Game 2 of the ALDS.

In 2011, the mustache came off along with the wheels on Pavano's bandwagon. Although Pavano did log 222 innings, his stats dropped going 9-13 with a 4.30 ERA.

Pavano is exactly what the Twins want in all of their pitchers.

Pavano knows how to throw into opponents bats without having them launched into orbit. He relies heavily on his defense to make sure games do not get out of hand.

That's what will be key with Pavano's performance one year after giving up a career-high (and league leading) 262 hits last season.

The Twins infield defense should be improved with the addition of Jamey Caroll at shortstop and Alexi Casilla back at second base. However, with Caroll entering next season at 37 years old (and limited shortstop experience) and Casilla being inconsistent, it's not a sure thing.

Pavano will be the opening day starter for the Twins in 2012. The only question is whether his defense will allow him to perform like one.

Starter #2: RHP Scott Baker

If it weren't for his elbow, Scott Baker was on pace to have a career season for the Twins last year. They weren't going to make the playoffs with Baker in the rotation, but they might have scratched together a few more victories.

Baker was progressing as a starter before his elbow shut him down in mid-August (he did make two relief appearances late in the season).

Over the course of his career, Baker was notorious for shutting himself down after 100 pitches. However, with the bullpen struggling, Baker turned it on last year and found himself going deeper into games.

Baker was also the catalyst for the Twins in the month of June, going 4-2 with a 2.45 ERA in six starts. It also shouldn't be ignored that Baker loves pitching at Target Field, going 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 2011.

While Baker's elbow is a definite cause of concern, the Twins could use the Scott Baker that showed up last year in their rotation.

If they get it, it could be a big year for Baker.

Starter #3: LHP Francisco Liriano

There are many inconsistencies when it comes to the performance of Francisco Liriano. He's been dominant at times (such as his 2006 campaign where he could have won Rookie of the Year if it weren't for his elbow exploding), while other times he's been the equivalent of "The Human Tee."

While it's almost impossible to predict Liriano's performance, there is one constant that the Twins can point to.

When it comes to the Twins in general, they seem to underachieve in odd numbered years and overachieve in even numbered years.

As fate would have it, Liriano's career has followed the same path. In odd numbered years, Liriano is 15-25 with an ERA of 5.53 (that does not include the 2007 season which Liriano missed with Tommy John surgery).

In even numbered years, Liriano has become a different pitcher.

He's posted a record of 32-17 with an ERA of 3.23. Liriano also won the American League Comeback Player of the Year award in 2010 going 14-10 with an ERA of 3.62 while starting Game 1 of the 2010 ALDS.

We could talk about Liriano's inconsistencies all day, but the Twins are pulling a risky gamble if they're using this as a measuring stick.

If Liriano proves them right, the Twins could be very lucky in 2012.

Starter #4: RHP Nick Blackburn

For as much as people jump on the lack of consistency of Francisco Liriano, the argument could be made that Nick Blackburn has been just as inconsistent as of late.

After his first two seasons in which Blackburn had eerily similar records of 11-11 (4.05 ERA in 2008 and 4.03 in 2009), he has gone 17-22 with a 4.98 ERA since.

Blackburn battled through injuries in 2010, and in 2011 he just kept hitting too many bats. It's possible that Blackburn could be another victim of the erosion of the Twins defense in 2011, but he needs to miss a couple more bats to return to his early career form.

Don't expect Nick Blackburn to suddenly morph into Roy Halladay. He is what he is and that's exactly what the Twins need Nick Blackburn to be.

Starter #5: RHP Jason Marquis

The Twins prized pitching acquisition of the offseason was veteran starter Jason Marquis. Marquis pitched for the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks in 2011 and put up respectable numbers before bombing in Arizona.

There are a couple of things that Marquis can do well to help the Twins rotation.

First, he can go deep into games. Marquis has thrown for at least 190 innings five times in his career and could help save the bullpen if it continues to be a weakness.

Marquis should also provide another veteran presence as the Twins will begin to turn to even younger starters past 2012. He's on a one year deal, but guys like Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn could use the advice of a battle tested veteran.

However, this doesn't mean that Marquis comes without risk. Marquis has not hit the 190 inning mark since throwing 216 in 2009 with the Colorado Rockies.

Marquis also is another pitch to contact pitcher which puts the spotlight back on the Twins infield defense.

If the Twins defense improves and Marquis still has a little bit of gas left in the tank at age 33, the Twins could find a diamond in the rough for the back of the rotation.

If that doesn't happen, Marquis will join the long list of Terry Ryan's bargain basement free agent pickups that have failed.

Long Reliever #1: RHP Anthony Swarzak

If somebody in the Twins rotation doesn't perform or gets injured, Anthony Swarzak will be the first replacement to get a shot in 2012.

Swarzak had a decent season for the Twins in 2011, but he still needs to develop as a pitcher in the majors before he can be declared a sure-fire starter.

What's holding Swarzak back is his ability to adapt which can be evidenced by his record in the first half compared to the second half of 2011.

Swarzak went 2-2 3.38 ERA in four starts for the Twins during the first half of the season including a near no-hitter against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at the end of May.

Then teams started to adjust to Swarzak and his record fell to 2-5 with an ERA of 4.94.

So which pitcher do the Twins have? That will be up to Swarzak who will be champing at the bit for an opportunity as 2012 progresses.

Long Reliever #2: RHP Terry Doyle

Terry Doyle presents an interesting decision for the Twins.

The good news is that Doyle is exactly what the Twins are looking for. He's a big right-handed pitcher that can pitch to contact, changes his speeds frequently, and does not walk many batters.

While Doyle may not be able to contribute in the Majors yet, it may be the best option to send him to Triple-A Rochester for a little bit of seasoning. However, that's where the problem lies.

The Twins selected Doyle with the 2nd pick in the 2011 Rule 5 draft. That means that the Twins can not send Doyle to the minors without offering him back to the organization he came from. In this case, that organization is the Chicago White Sox.

If Doyle struggles in spring training, there's probably a good chance that the Twins could send him back to the White Sox and sleep easy about it. However, if Doyle pitches halfway decent, the Twins will have to make a big decision.

It's very similar to the situation they found themselves in with Scott Diamond last season when he was taken from the Atlanta Braves. Diamond impressed enough that the Twins wanted to keep him, but not on their Major League roster. The Twins then worked out a trade with the Braves, and Diamond stayed with the team.

That might not be as easy this time around as Doyle would be returned to the Twins biggest rival.

The Rule-5 pick is somebody to watch as time goes on, but I have the feeling that the Twins will be impressed with the 6'5" 255-pound right-hander and keep him on the roster throughout the 2012 season.

Middle Reliever #1: LHP Brian Duensing

The Twins continue to flip Brian Duensing back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation as they'll once again put him in the bullpen to begin the 2012 season.

With the departure of Jose Mijares (who signed with the Kansas City Royals), Duensing will serve as the bullpen's left-handed specialist. The reason for this stems from what lead to his failure as a starter.

In his career, right-handed hitters have hit .300 off of Brian Duensing with an OPS of .836. His struggles against righties are documented in a May game against the Toronto Blue Jays where he served up three home runs to Jose Bautista.

However, when he faces a left-handed hitter, the numbers drop to a .203 average and a .511 OPS.

Mix in the fact that Duensing has performed better as a reliever during his career, and it makes sense to put Duensing in the bullpen and keep him there.

The only problem I can foresee is if the Twins rotation struggles badly enough that they toy with the idea of putting Duensing back into the rotation yet again.

Middle Reliever #2: RHP Joel Zumaya

It would be an interesting story line if Joel Zumaya made his return to Major League Baseball in the same stadium where his career came to a screeching halt two years ago.

I'm sure by now you know the story of Zumaya facing Delmon Young late in a June 2010 game against the Twins when he suffered a broken elbow while trying to throw one of his trademark 100 mile per hour fastballs.

After sitting out the entire 2011 season with the injury, Zumaya worked out for several scouts and the Twins gave him a one-year contract loaded with incentives.

This is where the comeback of Zumaya could go two different routes. The first option is to have Zumaya start with the major league club and be one of the premier relievers in a weak bullpen. This would put a lot of pressure on Zumaya, but he's said that he would be up for such a challenge.

The other option is to have Zumaya start at Triple-A Rochester for the first month of the season and then work his way back to pitching in the Majors.

The Twins took a similar approach with Dennys Reyes a couple years ago, and it worked brilliantly as he became a staple in the Twins bullpen for much of the 2000's.

Either approach should work, but it will be interesting to see if Zumaya can rebound to become one of the best relievers in baseball again.

(UPDATE: Joel Zumaya suffered a torn UCL in his pitching elbow and will require Tommy John surgery. He will miss the 2012 season.)

Middle Reliever #3: RHP Alex Burnett

Alex Burnett had gotten off to a decent start to his Major League career, but since then the wheels have seemingly fallen off.

The good news about this is that Burnett is only 24 years old and has a couple of years to adjust to Major League hitting. With this being his third year at the Major League level, he'll need to show improvement if he wants to stay on the 25-man roster.

He'll also have competition for this spot with Lester Oliveros (who came in the Delmon Young trade last year) and possibly Kyle Waldrop who has been patiently waiting for his opportunity in the minor leagues.

There's also the possibility that another player, such as Matt Maloney who was acquired from the Cincinnati Reds last offseason, could step up and take this spot.

This should be a fun battle to watch, but I'm giving the nod to Burnett because of the familiarity he has with the current Twins regime.

Set Up Reliever: LHP Glen Perkins

Glen Perkins found himself in a similar situation as the one Brian Duensing is in one year ago. Perkins had bounced around from being a starter and a reliever and even found himself in Rochester for several stretches before coming up to the Majors with a completely different attitude in 2011.

From there, Perkins became arguably the best reliever in the Twins bullpen with a 4-4 record and a 2.48 ERA in 65 games. He was able to get both right and left-handed batters out on a regular basis, and became the best option to get the ball to either Joe Nathan or Matt Capps.

Since the Twins no longer have the "double-barrel shotgun" approach to finishing games that they had last year, they will rely on Perkins to try and get the ball to Capps once again.

If Perkins can continue to perform like he did for most of 2011, it will be all up to Matt Capps to finish games for the Twins.

Closer: RHP Matt Capps

Matt Capps' second season with the Minnesota Twins could be summed up while I was driving by a church in Hastings, Minnesota last July.

The little church, which is located in the town southeast of the Twin Cities, had put on their bulletin board that "Jesus Saves and Matt Capps Doesn't." Ouch.

After compiling an All-Star season which became even better once he was traded to the Twins in 2010, Capps bombed in 2011. Capps was only able to register 15 saves and blew opportunities left and right. By the end of the season, it seemed like there was no way Capps would return in 2012.

Then, Joe Nathan left for the greener pastures of Texas which meant the Twins needed to search for a proven closer.

The Twins paid Capps $4.75 million for one year for him to return and by the Twins closer in 2012.

It wasn't a shocking move because the Twins went the cheap route with almost everything this offseason, but at the same time it's not like Capps is Mariano Rivera and had a fluke of a season.

Capps has been severely up and down, and the Twins will be taking a gamble that's similar to the one they've taken with Francisco Liriano. The fact of the matter is that even if the starters and other relievers perform in 2012, the weight of the Twins season (pitching wise) will fall onto Matt Capps in the ninth.

Bottom line: If he fails, the bullpen will fail.