Boston Red Sox: Is This Lineup Good Enough to Compete in the AL East in 2012?

The last time the Boston Red Sox finished below third place in MLB’s American League East, Bill Clinton had just begun his second term as president, the only portable music player you could find was a Discman and Google was a word familiar only to mathematicians.

However, because of the emergence of the Tampa Bay Rays, consistent quality of the New York Yankees and wealth of talent of the upstart Toronto Blue Jays, the 2012 Red Sox hold a very tenuous position within their own division. This could finally be the year where the Sox stumble all the way back to 1997, when home-run/strikeout king Mo Vaughn and an energetic rookie named Nomar Garciaparra were the lone bright spots in an otherwise dismal 78-84 campaign.

For $170 million, fans expect better.

The team’s starting pitchers struggled last season, never really finding their groove. While top-three starters Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are as solid a trio as any in the AL, the questions about the back end of the rotation will not abate any time soon.

As has been the case in previous years, if the Red Sox hope to make the playoffs, their bats will need to carry the team for the bulk of the season.

Scoring was not a problem for the Red Sox in 2011; with 875 runs, the Sox were the No. 1 offense in all of Major League Baseball. Though many of the faces in the lineup will be the same this season, scoring that many runs again could be a challenge.

The departures of JD Drew, Josh Reddick and Marco Scutaro, though seemingly minor, could have a ripple effect across the entire lineup. Scutaro gave the Red Sox flexibility at the top of the lineup last season when Jacoby Ellsbury or Dustin Pedroia needed a break, and was one of the few players to elevate his game in September.

With Reddick and Drew, the Sox had (relatively) consistent production from right field. With those players gone, new players will need to step up and, at the very least, equal the output the Sox got from those two last year.

The question must be asked, then: Is this lineup, as presently constituted, good enough to remain competitive in the AL East? Let’s take a look at the presumed starting nine and see what each player will bring to the table.

No. 1: Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)

Ellsbury was the Red Sox’s most consistent run producer last season, posting career highs in nearly every offensive category. Finally healthy, he proved that he could be the top of the order force Red Sox fans hoped for after he burst onto the scene at the end of the 2007 season.

Can he do it again? Can he actually improve his numbers? As long as he remains healthy (and that is, admittedly, a big if), then Ellsbury should continue his upward trend from last season. Given that he is in a contract year, it would certainly be in his best interest.

No. 2: Dustin Pedroia (2B)

The one player on this team that fans will not need to worry about is Pedroia. As long as he is healthy, the diminutive second baseman gives the Red Sox something all teams value: consistency.

Every season, you can count on strong defense, a high batting average and decent power from the 2008 AL MVP. It also seems like every year, the Sox go through an injury-marred stretch where Pedroia carries the offense for an entire month.

As good a second baseman as there is in the game today, Pedroia represents what this team should hope to become: a grinding, hustle-machine that bleeds every single ounce of ability from themselves. If they follow his lead, the Red Sox will find success in 2012.

No. 3: Adrian Gonzalez (1B)

Gonzalez’s first season in Boston was a tale of two halves. In the first half of the season, he was an absolute force, a Triple Crown threat and prohibitive AL MVP favorite. He led the AL in most offensive categories, played excellent defense and looked every bit the part of the star the Red Sox hoped he’d be when inking him to a seven-year, $154 million contract extension.

In the second half of the season, however, the wheels came off. Due in part to a shoulder still recovering from offseason surgery, Gonzalez saw major dips in his home runs (17 to 10), RBI (77 to 40) and slugging percentage (.591 to .489) after the All-Star break.

Now fully healthy, Gonzalez must rediscover his MVP form if the Red Sox are to have any chance of competing in the division.

No. 4: David Ortiz (DH)

Despite lacking the 40-plus home run power he used to have, Big Papi had arguably his most complete offensive season last year. He posted his highest batting average and OPS since 2007 and tied for his second fewest strikeouts in his Red Sox career.

What should trouble fans is the team’s steadfast refusal to reward Ortiz’s consistency with a multi-year contract. This lack of commitment demonstrates a wariness that, at the tender age of 36, Ortiz can repeat this type of offensive output.

As the DH and clean-up hitter, Ortiz must produce in order for the Red Sox to match the firepower of teams like the Yankees. Big power hitters tend to not age particularly gracefully, and if Ortiz begins to show signs of decline, the Red Sox will be in serious trouble.

No. 5: Kevin Youkilis (3B)

The last two seasons have been difficult for Youkilis, as he has been slowed by injuries that have limited his effectiveness at the plate. Last year, the “Greek God of Walks” posted his lowest OBP since becoming an everyday player in 2006.

While part of his offensive woes and injury problems can be attributed to his move back to third base, with Gonzalez entrenched at first and Ortiz at DH, Youkilis’ position on the field is not going to change. How he continues to adapt to the rigors of playing third base every day will dictate his effectiveness this year.

No. 6: Carl Crawford (LF)

2012 is already off to a bad start for Crawford. Offseason wrist surgery will likely keep him out for the first couple weeks of the year, and he will then have to adjust on the fly when he rejoins the team.

Red Sox fans especially know that Crawford really is a good player. As a member of the Rays, he was a disruptive force at the plate, in the field and on the bases. He was clearly pressing last year after his tough start, and the fickle Boston fans never showed him the kind of support he deserved.

With a significant offensive drop-off after him, the Red Sox must ease Crawford’s transition back into the lineup as much as they can. A comfortable Crawford will be the game-changing force they envisioned when signing him to the now-infamous $142 million contract.

No. 7: Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C)

It will be a strange sight for Red Sox fans to not see Jason Varitek behind the plate at all this year. The starting catcher since 1999, Varitek began to turn the reins over to Saltalamacchia last season, and it appears that the transition will be complete in 2012.

“Salty” had a solid first full year with the Sox last season, showing good power at the plate with 23 doubles and 16 home runs in just 103 games played. While he struggles to get on base (a paltry .288 OBP last year), his primary responsibility will be the handling of the pitching staff.

If he can keep the pitchers working as effectively as they did under Varitek, any offense from Saltalamacchia will be a bonus.

No. 8: Cody Ross/Ryan Sweeney/Ryan Kalish (RF)

In spite of his heroics in the 2007 ALCS, JD Drew will not be remembered fondly in Boston. The abundance of called third strikes, injuries and general malaise over his five-year stay wore Red Sox fans down to the point of despair.

It seems now that the Sox will go with the “hot hand” approach in right field. Ross, the 2010 NLCS MVP with the San Francisco Giants, seems likely to have the inside track on the starting job. Sweeney, who spent last year with the Oakland A’s and came over in the deal for Andrew Bailey, projects as a fourth outfielder.

Red Sox fans will remember Kalish from 2010, where he burst onto the scene in August and looked like a solid everyday player. Injuries limited him to just 22 games at Triple-A Pawtucket last season, but he’ll have an opportunity this spring to earn a spot on the roster.

No. 9: Mike Aviles/Nick Punto (SS)

The biggest question mark in the lineup comes at the shortstop position. Aviles is the more accomplished of the two, having finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2008.

In 38 games with the Red Sox last year, Aviles batted .317 while playing five different positions, and the team’s confidence in his ability to sustain this pace over an entire season led to the departures of Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie.

Punto was brought in as insurance, but he is no sure thing either. He hasn’t been an everyday player since 2007 with the Minnesota Twins and struggled offensively in a part-time role with the St. Louis Cardinals last year.

A wildcard in the shortstop race is top prospect Jose Iglesias. If new manager Bobby Valentine doesn’t like what he sees out of Aviles and Punto this spring, the 22-year-old Iglesias may get a chance to win the starting job.