Houston Rockets: 5 Bold Predictions for the 2nd Half of the Season

We're nearly halfway through the lockout-shortened 2011-12 NBA season, and it hasn't disappointed, especially for fans of the Houston Rockets.

If the season ended right now, the Rockets would be the seventh seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.  While a No. 7 seed might not seem impressive,  it shows the depth and strength of the Western Conference, which subsequently displays how solid of a team the Rockets are.

The Rockets are a complete team, currently ranking in the top 15 in overall point production, rebounds per game and assists per game with 97.6, 43.0 and 20.9, respectively.

There's no doubting that the Rockets are a legitimate team in the Western Conference, but what does the second half of the season have in store for them?

Read on to see five bold predictions for the Houston Rockets in the second half of the 2011-12 NBA season.  

Rockets Will Finish the Season Above .500

One thing we've learned about the Rockets so far this season is that they are more than capable of competing with the best of the best in the Western Conference.

With wins over teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, the San Antonio Spurs and the Portland Trailblazers, just to name a few, it's clear that the Rockets will have no problem competing in the West throughout the second half of the season.

The only problem is that the Rockets aren't the most consistent team in the NBA, as evidenced by their defeating the Thunder, only to follow it up with a double-digit loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  One thing Houston will have to improve to end the season above .500 is their 20th-ranked defense, which allows an average of 96.6 points per game.

The Rockets don't have the kind of offensive power it takes to win shootouts night in and night out, and that's why improving their defensive focus will be the key to their success down the stretch.

If they can improve their defense, which I think they will as they continue to gel together, there's no reason to believe that they won't end the season above .500.

The second half of the schedule for the Rockets is a little more forgiving than the first half, which will help the Rockets win more games than they'll lose during the second half of the season.

Regular Season Record Prediction:  36 - 30

Kyle Lowry Continues to Be the NBA's Most Improved Player

The Houston Rockets success so far this season is in large part due to the emergence of point guard Kyle Lowry.

Lowry started off the season by averaging a double-double throughout the first ten or so games of the season.  While his production has tapered off a little, he's still playing at a much more dominant level than at any other point in his NBA career.

Lowry is currently averaging 14.8 points, 7.6 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game.  All of those averages are significant improvements over his career averages, and they are also the foundation of the Rockets' success so far this season.

If the season ended right now, Kyle Lowry would undoubtedly be in the running for the 2011-12 Most Improved Player Award, and rightfully so.

The only aspect of Lowry's game that must improve if he wants to help the Rockets become more legitimate contenders in the West is his shooting percentage, which is currently only 40.6 percent on the season.

The Rockets success this season relies heavily on Lowry's ability to continue to improve, and I expect him to do just that.  Lowry is the kind of player that thrives under pressure, as evidenced by his play at the University of Villanova.

Kyle Lowry will be hoisting the 2011-12 NBA Most Improved Player Trophy at the end of the regular season, and he'll undoubtedly deserve it.

Kyle Lowry Regular Season Stat Prediction:  16.8 ppg, 8.8 apg, 5.0 rpg and 1.8 spg.    

Houston's Bench Play Will Continue to Be One of the Best in the NBA

The Houston Rockets' bench ranks seventh in overall offensive production, with an average of 35.2 points per game.

When you combine that with their sixth-ranked efficiency rating of 40.1, you can understand why the Rockets' second unit is so good.

The Rockets are flying under the radar in the Western Conference, and their continued success throughout the second half of the season hinges on their second unit's ability to produce at consistent levels.

Chase Budinger, Goran Dragic and Courtney Lee have been doing a solid job of legitimizing the Rockets' bench so far this season, and as long as they continue to produce,  the Rockets will continue to win games.

Arguably the best player on the Rockets' bench is Chase Budinger, with his impressive 6'7'' frame that creates mismatches at the small forward position—mismatches that play a huge role in Budinger's production.

The Rockets rely on serious production coming from their bench, and lucky for them, their bench is one of the best in the entire NBA.

If the Rockets can manage to improve their second unit production at the center position, they will be able to contend with playoff teams that have legitimate centers like the Lakers, Spurs and Grizzlies.

At the end of the regular season, the Rockets' subsequent success will be attributed to the play of their second unit, which will continue to improve and gel together throughout the second half of the season.

Houston Won't Be Higher Than a No. 6 Seed in the 2012 NBA Playoffs

As I said before, the Houston Rockets will end the regular season above .500, with a record around 36-3. While that's a solid record, it won't get them any higher than the sixth seed in the playoffs.

With solid teams in the West like the Thunder, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trailblazers and the Dallas Mavericks, the Rockets need to play at a high level just to make it into the postseason.

If the season ended today, Houston would be on a collision course with the San Antonio Spurs, who would be the No. 2 seed in the West.

The Rockets are 2-2 against the Spurs this season, so it's realistic to think that a low seed in the West might not be all that bad for a young Rockets team that's played well against the top teams in the West so far this season.

There's a very high likelihood that the Rockets, who missed the playoffs last season, could miss the playoffs again this season, even with an above .500 record.

But realistically, if the Rockets can continue to play at the level they're currently at, with solid bench production and leadership from Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry, there's no reason why the Rockets can't make a return to the NBA Playoffs this season.

They'll have to be satisfied with at most a sixth seed though, because there's no way they will get a higher seed than that. 

Houston Won't Make It Past the First Round of the 2012 Playoffs

In six of their seven previous playoff appearance, the Houston Rockets have made first round exits, and unfortunately, the same will happen this year in the 2012 NBA Playoffs.

It’s not necessarily that the Rockets aren’t a good enough team to make it out of the first round, it’s just that the competition in the Western Conference is that much  better.

If the Rockets do indeed land in the sixth or seventh seed in the West, they will most likely matchup with a team like the Spurs, Mavericks or Clippers. 

While the Rockets are 2-2 against the San Antonio Spurs at this point in the season, the Rockets’ youth and lack of experience would put them at a serious disadvantage against a veteran Spurs team that is absolutely dangerous in the playoffs.

Because of the depth in the Western Conference, the Rockets, assuming they get a sixth or seventh seed, will have a pretty difficult time making it out of the first round of the playoffs.  They just don’t yet have the star power or experience that it takes to compete consistently throughout a seven game series in the West.

The Houston Rockets are a good team, with an above average bench, but they don’t have all the pieces in place yet to be a complete team that can compete with the elite in the NBA.

The Rockets need to get a more legitimate center than Samuel Dalembert and they need to improve defensively.  If they can manage to do those things this year, they could be a sleeper in the West.  But unfortunately I don’t see either of those things happening by the end of this season.

Rockets’ 1st Round Playoff Prediction:  Los Angeles Clippers 4  Houston Rockets 2

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