Chicago Bulls: Why Frontcourt Play Proves They Don't Need Dwight Howard

The Chicago Bulls' frontcourt of late has stepped up, showing that they don't need Dwight Howard to come and save the day for them to win a championship. If anything they've proven the contrary, that they, with no Howard, are the best hope for the Bulls to win a title. 

Let's take the best possible scenario for the Bulls, that all they have to send is Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and either Taj Gibson or Omer Asik for Howard and Hedo Turkoglu. Does that make them a better team?

Well first, let's look at what the frontcourts are producing right now. Right now, in terms of efficiency differential, the Bulls' frontcourt is playing the best in the NBA. Note that I'm not saying they are the best in the NBA. I'm saying they are playing the best in the NBA. 

Over the last five games, the Bulls' frontcourt has been amazing. Its efficiency differential is 24.8, best in the NBA. It is scoring 63.8 points per game, second-best in the NBA. It is only giving up 46.2 points per game, third-best in the NBA. The point differential is 17.6 points per game—best in the NBA. 

They are averaging 38.0 rebounds, second in the league. They are averaging 13.6 assists—best in the league. Their field goal percentage of .494 is fifth-best. Their three-point percentage of .458 is second-best. 

Over the course of the season, the Bulls are the best team in rebounding differential. 

So, what is it about this frontcourt that says it needs fixing? This is what things come down to, isn't it?

The conversation revolves around "getting past Miami," and what about this trade helps the Bulls accomplish that? If it goes through, then the Bulls sacrifice the advantage they have in depth to get more star power—but they'll still have less than the Heat. 

The combined PER of Howard and Turkoglu is 36.4 compared to Deng and Noah's 35.4. Defensively, the Magic pair have an oPER of 27.8 to the Bulls' pair of 26.7. That means the Bulls tandem has a net-1 difference of .1 better than the Magic pair.

The Bulls' pair costs less, too. Now, granted, you can say stay stats don't mean everything; but let's not use platitudes to gloss over what they do mean. What they do mean is that the conversation is a heck of a lot closer than it seems on the surface. 

Don't stop there, though. Look at what we're really concerned about. There needs to be a second scorer in crunch time. Is Howard the answer there?

Look who has been coming up big for the Bulls in clutch time with Derrick Rose out? Noah and Deng. In fact, Deng has been the Bulls' top scorer in the clutch this year, averaging 57.6 points per 36 minutes based on data from Stats Cube. 

That's better than Kobe Bryant (25.5), Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James (24.3), Dwyane Wade (20.0), or Kevin Durant (37.7). In fact, while that Stats Cube does not offer a sortable list, I cannot find a single player who averages more points per minute in clutch time scoring than Luol Deng does.

As for Howard—he averages 12.0 points. Why so few? Because, frankly, the man can't be relied on to make a free throw. The reality is that he does the exact opposite of resolving that problem. The issue becomes bigger when exchanging one of the best clutch scorers in the game for a player who can't even touch the ball in the clutch!

If you give Howard the ball, he'll get fouled and miss his free throws. 

It's not just that, either. It's where his scoring comes from. Howard does all his scoring from inside of eight feet. He has only made eight field goals this year form eight feet out, less than half of Noah's 19. Neither one is a great outside shooter, but Noah's shot is better.

Of course, Noah has taken far fewer shots overall than Howard. But if Howard were to be traded to the Bulls, and the Bulls keep Boozer, then Howard is going to be taking shots away from Boozer. 

Boozer has hit 103 shots form outside of seven feet. So why is it a big deal if that happens?

Boozer hitting those shots form outside unclogs the lane and opens up the way for Rose to get through the traffic. 

Getting Howard makes the Bulls less efficient on offense, because it takes away from the way the whole thing works. It's not merely an issue of just "adding" Howard. It's a matter of considering the way the offense works together. 

Those who are pushing for a Howard trade need to get past the distracting shimmer of star power and realize that Howard doesn't make them a contender, he makes them a pretender. He makes them a top-heavy team who solves no problems and creates more.