Boston Red Sox: Why Signing Ross Ohlendorf Is a Good Move

On January 9th, I suggested Ohlendorf could be a good signing for the Red Sox.

Peter Gammons has reported that's exactly what has happened; he is now in camp on a minor-league deal.

Princton grad Ohlendorf is one of the most intelligent players in MLB, and he helps run his family's longhorn cattle business during the offseason. "When he cannot be in Austin," the NY Times reported in 2008, "Ohlendorf runs the ranch’s Web site, posting photos and information about the herd. He gathers information about market prices and decides with his father which longhorns to breed or sell."

“I don’t know if people around him quite realize just how intelligent he is,”  Scott Bradley, the baseball coach at Princeton told Tyler Kepner of the NY Times in 2008. “This young man was one of the top students here.”

Ohlendorf majored in operations research and financial engineering and graduated with a 3.75 average. He wrote his thesis on the amateur baseball draft, and concluded that "even though many of the investments did not work out, the upside on those that did was so great, signing the high picks to large bonuses appears to have been a very smart investment.''

Ohlendorf now has the opportunity for a practical application of his studies. He needs a new contract with a new team after being released by the Pirates after the 2011 season, following an injury-ridden, below-par year in which he went 1-3 with an 8.15 ERA and 1.94 WHIP—the worst numbers of his five-year career. To be fair, he only pitched 38 innings and was shut down when back troubles that afflicted him earlier in his career acted up again.

Experts in Pittsburgh disagree about why he was released. Some say the Pirates were concerned about his shoulder injury, while others argue that it was because of his contract.

Despite 2010 numbers that looked pretty bad on the surface (1-11 record in 2010), Ohlendorf won a $2.025 million arbitration case before the 2011 season. He argued that he was the best pitcher in the Pirates' rotation, having posted an 11-10 record with 3.92 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2009. And despite the horrific 1-11 record in 2010, he incurred all those losses with an ERA of 4.07. Over his last 10 starts before he hurt his shoulder, he was lights out: 2.35 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP, numbers better than No. 1 starter on many other teams.

Bill Brink and Michael Sanserino of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote that the signing of  Erik Bedard was the key reason for Ohlendorf's release. A clause in his arbitration victory stipulated that he could not earn less than 80 percent of his previous salary, or about $1.62 million, making him too expensive for the penny-pinching Pirates.

As Marc Normandin effectively argues on Over the Monster, his injury issues may cause many teams to shy away, "in the same way Alfredo Aceves was scooped up late into last offseason's game due to a history of back trouble. That worked out well for Boston, as they were rewarded for their risk-taking with 90-plus innings and a player still under team control."

Ohlendorf, 25, was drafted in the fourth round by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2004. He came to the Yankees in the Randy Johnson trade. He appeared in six games in September 2007, posted a 2.84 earned-run average and made the postseason roster.

One reason the Red Sox may have been interested in Ohlendorf is because he fits the mold GM Ben Cherington seems to be seeking this offseason: pitchers with a high ground-ball rate. 

Kepner reported that his power sinker jumped to 97 miles an hour while he was with the Yankees, and that he tried to learn a splitter from Roger Clemens and Shelley Duncan.

Although there have been mixed results since, the Red Sox probably like his ability to induce ground balls, and they are hopeful his splitter will continue to improve.

The bottom line is that Ohlendorf has shown he can pitch if he is healthy.

This is another one of those low-risk deals that could produce Aceves-like dividends.