2012 NL Central: Predicting Where Each Team Will Finish

The National League Central never seems to get quite the recognition it deserves. Last season two teams from the division made the playoffs and one won the World Series. 

In 2012 it will be tough for two teams from the NL Central to return to the playoffs and I believe that unless they expand to two wild card teams, the NL Wild Card will come from the NL East.

With that said, here's how I think things will shape up in the Central from bottom to top.

Sixth Place: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates performance in the first half of 2011 was shocking to most.

The Pirates were one game out of first and appeared to be headed in the right direction. 2012 will prove that was a fluke. The lineup offers nobody who will likely hit over .300 and the pitching rotation is horrendous.

Even if the Pirates bring in AJ Burnett (which I believe they will), the rotation still lacks any clear leader (or ace), and I don't believe a single one of them will win 10 games.

Andrew McCutchen will continue to progress and I believe Pedro Alvarez will bounce back to true form.

However, as I mentioned earlier, the lineup doesn't have anybody who jumps out at me with their ability to hit the ball at a .300 clip and that will definitely hurt the Pirates, who posted a team batting average of just .244 last season. 

Their rotation may be worse than their lineup and has no clear 10 game winners and I can see the Pirates losing 100 games this season.

Offensive Top Performer: Andrew McCutchen .280/.377/.470 23 HRs, 87 RBIs, 98 Runs and 24 Stolen Bases

Pitching Top Performer: Joel Hanrahan 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 33 Saves, 67 Strikeouts

Record: 100-62

Fifth Place: Chicago Cubs

I believe the Cubs will contend for last place in the division in 2012.

The team is in the very capable hands of Theo Epstein but even he knows this team has a long way to go. They made a great move springing for Anthony Rizzo but he won't be a starter this year.

The biggest bright spot for this lineup will be Starlin Castro, he'll likely hit over .300 again and could crack double digit home runs.

The lineup though is still weak and the pitching rotation is even weaker.

After Matt Garza the drop off is relatively severe. Dempster is inconsistent at best and although I like Chris Volstad, he Paul Maholm and Randy Wells won't offer much in the way of wins. This year will not be good for the Cubs but if Theo knows anything, it's how to put together a good baseball team and I suspect the Cubs will be very much in contention within the next few years.

Top Offensive Performer: Starlin Castro .310/.352/.444 11 HRs, 76 RBIs and 93 Runs

Top Pitching Performer: Matt Garza 14-9 3.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 189 Strikeouts

Record: 67-95

Fourth Place: Houston Astros

Everyone seems to think that this Astros team will finish dead last in the division and contend for the league's worst record, not me though. 

The Astros have a semi-decent top of the rotation with Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and Brett Myers but after that it gets dicey with the young J.A. Happ (who could surprise people this year) and Livan Hernandez.

Their lineup is young, but with youth comes unreliability. The biggest threat in said lineup is still (after all these years) Carlos Lee. Lee is turning 36 this season and should be entering the twilight of his career.

As old as Lee is getting, the rest of the team is very young and has loads of potential.

Between Jordan Schafer (25), Jed Lowrie (27), J.D. Martinez (24), Chris Johnson (27), Jason Castro (24), and Jose Altuve (21), the offense is young and talented. However, I still feel they're two to three years away. The Astros have young pitching talent in the minors as well and you could see them come August or September.

My feeling though is that 2012 will be a depressing finale for the Astros in the National League.

Offensive Top Performer: Carlos Lee .273/.358/.455, 21 HRs and 85 RBIs

Pitching Top Performer: Wandy Rodriguez 12-11 3.66 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 176 Strikeouts

Record: 68-94

Third Place: Milwaukee Brewers

If Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder were on the Brewers active roster to start this season I would have to rank them ahead of the entire National League Central.

The fact of the matter though, is that this team will miss Fielder greatly and with no Ryan Bruan for the first 50 games they will have to rely very heavily on their pitching staff to stay afloat until Braun returns.

The addition of Aramis Ramirez will help and Mat Gamel could have a nice season after destroying opposing pitching at AAA Nashville last year.

Luckily, that pitching rotation the Brewers will rely upon is very good at the top with Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. After that though Randy Wolf is getting old and Chris Narveson is mediocre.

Gallardo, Greinke and Marcum could all win 15 games a piece but Wolf and Narveson will have to perform very well in order to pick up for an offense with injury prone Ramirez, aging Alex Gonzalez and brutal Carlos Gomez.

Top Offensive Performer: (Outside of Bruan) Corey Hart .273/.340/.490 23 HRs, 73 RBIs and 84 Runs

Top Pitching Performer: Zack Greinke 16-8 2.89 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 210 Strikeouts

Record: 83-79

Second Place: St. Louis Cardinals

Last year's World Series champions will finish in second, maybe even third this season.

The Cardinals corner outfielders are an injury waiting to happen, Rafael Furcal is getting old quickly and Lance Berkman can't possibly be expected to produce the way he did last year. These are big question marks for a team who just lost arguably the best position player in all of baseball.

All question marks aside, the team can still hit and should be expected to but an injury to Furcal, Beltran and/or Holliday would be devistating.

The Cardinals can flat out pitch, but like their lineup, the pitching rotation carries injury concerns.

Chris Carpenter is injury prone and there's no guarantee Adam Wainwright will be the same Adam Wainright pre-Tommy John surgery. If one or both of those two were to come down with injuries the effects could be disasterous.

With all that said, I still believe they will contend for the 2012 NL Central title.

Top Offensive Performer: Matt Holliday .299/.391/.520 26 HRs, 94 RBIs and 91 Runs

Top Pitching Performer: Jaime Garcia 16-9 3.24 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 160 Strikeouts

Record: 87-75

First Place: Cincinnati Reds

In my first article I predicted that the Cincinnati Reds will win the 2012 NL Central.

The Reds have improved more than any other team in the division. Their bullpen is arguably the best in all of baseball and their starting rotation is pretty solid with the only question mark being the fifth spot (Homer Bailey/Aroldis Chapman).

The Reds lineup has finished near the top of the NL leaderboards in most offensive statistics the last two seasons and this lineup is better than those two.

Like the Cardinals, the Reds do have injury concerns but they lie almost exclusively in Scott Rolen. The eight time gold glove winner will turn 37 this season and one has to wonder how much he can have left in the tank.

The Reds could surely benefit from him being in the lineup every day but I think they have the depth to cover his loss if he should go down.

Top Offensive Performer: Joey Votto .319/.417/.598, 33 HRs, 110 RBIs and 103 runs (NL MVP)

Top Pitching Performer: Johnny Cueto 20-5 2.75, 1.10 WHIP and 142 strikeouts

Record: 93-69

So There You Have It

So there you have it folks, my predictions for the NL Central from bottom to top.

Nobody can say for certain who will or won't perform up to their ability or outperform everyone's expectations but when looking at all six teams on paper this is how I see it. 

Let the arguing and finger pointing and correcting commence.