Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 2012 Position-by-Position Matchup

The New York Yankees will enter the 2012 season as relatively heavy favorites for the American League East title. Though second place is never the goal of any MLB organization, the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and Tampa Bay Rays, will likely be battling for precisely that.

The AL East has regularly produced two playoff teams in the last decade or so, and the addition of a fifth postseason spot to each league should allow that trend to continue. 

Here, we will examine who has the best chance of grabbing a playoff berth by matching up two of the AL East's contenders—the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox.

Each position of each team will be assessed, and matched up with its counterpart. The team that is deemed to have an edge in a position will be given a "slight," "moderate," "significant," or "extreme" advantage. If the teams are understood to be equal at a particular position, no advantage will be awarded.

The stats for batters read AVG/OBP/SLG, HR, RBI, SB for batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, runs batted in and stolen bases.

The stats for pitchers read W-L, ERA, SV/SVO for record, earned run average, saves and save opportunities.

Let's get started!

All stats are attributed to Baseball-Reference.com  

Catcher: JP Arencibia Versus Jarrod Saltalammachia

J.P. Arencibia (Blue Jays): 2011, .219/.282/.438, 23 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB

JPA's rookie campaign was a relatively successful endeavor. The Miami native slugged 23 home runs, setting the Blue Jays franchise record for slobber-knockers by a backstop. The young catcher also collected an impressive 78 runs batted in, mostly while batting in the nine hole. 

Arencibia's defensive performance was the target of ridicule at the outset of the season, but steady growth throughout the 162 game schedule whittled down the ammunition of critics, as Arencibia's play behind the dish improved considerably.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Red Sox): 2011, .235/.288/.450, 16 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB

Once considered a future star, Saltalamacchia failed to gain traction at the big league level and was never able hold down a starting role with any big league club prior to the 2011 season. Last year was the catcher's best, as he had stretches of offensive consistency, and slugged a career high 16 round-trippers. 

Defensively, Saltalamacchia is solid. Top-notch base thieves won't hesitate to run on him, but he did throw out 31 percent of those who made attempts.

Advantage: Blue Jays (Slight)

Though the two catchers put up similar numbers across the board, Arencibia's power and potential make him a better option behind the plate. The Blue Jay could increase his home run total from 2011.

If he can improve his batting average and on-base percentage, he will become a candidate to move into the middle third of the line up, where he could reach the 90 runs batted in plateau this season.

First Base: Adam Lind Versus Adrian Gonzalez

Adam Lind (Blue Jays): 2011, .251/.295/.439, 26 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB

Lind is a baseball player with very singular talent. The first baseman cranked 26 homers in 125 games last year, but failed to do anything particularly well aside from hitting the long ball.

He was able to pad his runs batted in total by hitting behind Jose Bautista, who got on base at a clip better than anyone else, but the first baseman still fell short of 90. Lind's sub-.300 on-base percentage must improve if he wants to stick at the clean-up spot in Toronto's line up.   

As a former outfielder, Lind has a quick first step, which he uses well in the infield. He also developed the ability to make nice picks when throws come to him in the dirt.

Adrian Gonzalez (Red Sox): 2011, .338/.410/.548, 27 HR, 117 RBI, 1 SB

Though his home run total dropped a bit in 2011 from 40 in 2009, and 31 in 2010, Gonzalez enjoyed his best all around season to date. As predicted by many, the former Padre made use of Fenway's short left field fence, frequently going opposite field for doubles off the Green Monster. Gonzalez placed second in the AL with a .338 batting average, and third in the AL with 117 runs batted in.

Gonzalez won his third Gold Glove (first AL) in his first season with the BoSox.

Maybe they should just keep moving him to where Kevin Youkilis plays until the they get the current third baseman to designated hitter, or back to first...

Advantage—Red Sox (Significant)

Gonzalez is one of the best players at a stacked position. He holds advantages over Lind in every conceivable way. What stands out most in this juxtaposition is the rate at which each player gets on base. If the teams faced off in a three-game series, Gonzalez would be statistically likely get on base two more times than Lind.

That really adds up over the course of a 162-game season.

Second Base: Kelly Johnson Versus Dustin Pedroia

Kelly Johnson (Blue Jays): 2011, .222/.304/.413, 21 HR, 58 RBI, 16 SB

There is reason for Blue Jays fans to be optimistic about what Johnson might bring to the table this year, as his career forms a pattern of good year, bad year, good year, bad year.

Last year was bad. 

Even so, Johnson did play better after Toronto acquired him from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Aaron Hill and John MacDonald, putting up a line of .270/.364/.417, in 33 games.

Defensively, Johnson is solid. You won't see him on too many highlight reels, but he gets to the balls that you would expect your second baseman to reach and has a good arm for the position.

Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox): 2011, .307/.387/.474, 21 HR, 91 RBI, 26 SB

Pedroia had a fantastic year in 2011, setting personal marks in homeruns, runs batted in, and stolen bases. His performance was on par with his MVP campaign back in 2008, but he didn't receive the same amount of attention because of the Sox's epic September collapse.

At 28, there is no reason to think Pedroia will fall very far short of the production he amassed last year, and he remains one of the top second basemen in Major League Baseball.

In addition to outstanding play at the dish, Pedroia is a preeminent fielder, possessing two Gold Gloves.

Advantage—Red Sox (Moderate)

While a case could easily be made that Pedroia deserves a "significant" edge here, Kelly Johnson is a lot better than his numbers from last season show. Toronto's slugging second baseman is capable of making this race more respectable, and he should do so given the opportunity to put a full season in at the Rogers Centre.

Third Base: Brett Lawrie Versus Kevin Youkilis

Brett Lawrie (Blue Jays): 2011 (43 games), .293/.373/.580, 9 HR, 25 RBI, 7 SB

Toronto's new favorite son, Brett Lawrie, made a splash with the Blue Jays after receiving a late-season call up in 2011. In 150 major-league at bats, the Canadian prospect amassed a ridiculous 21 extra-base hits. 

Lawrie will be an all-around force at the dish for years to come, but the lavish expectations he carries into the upcoming season may be excessive.

Lawrie was touted as a terrific batter, but a terrible defender. With the Blue Jays, he showed some sloppiness with the glove, but settled in nicely after a rough start, and could be a solid defender this season.

Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox): 2011, .258/.373/.459, 17 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB

Youkilis has suffered some nagging injuries over the past two seasons, and they may be catching up to him. Typically one of the most efficient batters in the league, "Youk" struggled last year, posting a line that was his all around worst since 2005.

Whether the 2011 season was an anomaly or the beginning of the end for the Cincinnati native should become more clear during the 2012 schedule.

The transition from first base to third was not kind to Youkilis, who was a butcher at the hot corner last season.

Advantage—Even

There are too many variables here. Is Lawrie ready to produce for 162 games? Will Youkilis bounce back or decline further? Will he get any tips from his new brother in-law, Tom Brady?

Both guys could be All-Stars, and both could struggle mightily in 2012.

Shortstop: Yunel Escobar Versus Mike Aviles

Yunel Escobar (Blue Jays): 2011, .290/.369/.413, 11/48/3

Escobar is solid at the dish, getting on base at a .369 clip. He has some pop, but a 20-home run season is likely unreachable. He doesn't possess ideal speed for a lead-off man and may be more suitable for the No. 2 spot, but he will begin the 2012 season at the top of the Blue Jays' order.

Yunel is a good defensive shortstop that falls just shy of being in the game's upper echelon. Still, any team would feel comfortable with him in the hole.

Mike Aviles (Red Sox): 2011 (91 games), .255/.289/.409, 7 HR, 39 RBI, 14 SB

I give the nod to Aviles over Nick Punto because he is the better offensive option at shortstop. A career .288 hitter, Aviles struggled last year with the Kansas City Royals before moving to Boston, where he hit .317 in his last 38 games of 2011.

Aviles is a versatile defender who can competently play nearly any position, but he won't blow you away at shortstop.

Advantage—Blue Jays (Moderate)

Since joining the Blue Jays in 2012, Yunel Escobar has been fantastic. He is a solid player and his production flies under the radar. He gets the nod at the moderate level here because of superior power, and an ability to get on base at a rate that Aviles just can't match.

Left Field: Eric Thames Versus Carl Crawford

Eric Thames (Blue Jays): 2011 (95 games), .262/.313/.456, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 2 SB

Thames gets the nod over Travis Snider because he so thoroughly outplayed Snider last season.

Thames could turn into a very good hitter for the Blue Jays. He possess the power to hit 25 home runs, and has the bat speed to hit at least .280. The question is whether he will learn some plate discipline.

Thames seemingly makes up his mind as to whether he will swing at a pitch long before the ball leaves the pitcher's hand. This led to far too many strikeouts and far too many shallow pop flies in 2011.

Thames will try to be better in the field this year. He wasn't terrible last season, but there is certainly room for improvement. 

Carl Crawford (Red Sox): 2011, .255/.289/.405, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 18 SB

Crawford's first year with the Red Sox was flat out ugly. He rarely reached base, and when he did, he only stole bases at a 66.66 percent success rate. 

Crawford is a better player than he showed last year, and Red Sox fans are hoping his initial go-round in Beantown proves to be an aberration.

Unfortunately, the short fence in Fenway's left field nullifies Crawford's speed a bit, and he struggled there last year, looking lost at times when he approached the warning track. He seemed to figure it out a bit as the year went on, but needs to be better in 2012. 

Advantage—Red Sox (Slight)

Though Thames was the better player in 2011, and could be again in 2012, Crawford's long-term track record garners him too much respect than to be written off so easily. 

Center Field: Colby Rasmus Versus Jacoby Ellsbury

Colby Rasmus (Blue Jays): 2011, .225/.298/.391, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 5 SB

2012 will be the decisive year in the career of Colby Rasmus. Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos acquired Rasmus last summer with the idea that he could pay for a struggling outcast, and receive an All-Star caliber outfielder. This will be Rasmus' final chance to vindicate AA, as well as the many scouts and fans that have been singing his praises for the past three years.

Though he doesn't have the hardware to back it up, Rasmus is an elite defensive center fielder.   

Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox): 2011, .321/.376/.552, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 39 SB

Wow, who saw that coming? Ellsbury has always been highly regarded as a good hitter and base-stealing threat, but never a power hitter. Ellsbury's breakout season in 2011 netted him a second place finish in MVP voting, and raised eyebrows all over the league.

Oh, and the centerfielder also won himself a Gold Glove last year. 

Advantage—Red Sox (Significant)

A statistical comparison of last year's numbers would suggest that the Red Sox own an "extreme" advantage here, but assuming that Ellsbury will crack 30 home runs next season is very optimistic, although stranger things have happened (see: Bautista, Jose). 

Conversely, assuming that Rasmus won't improve on last year's dismal campaign is pretty pessimistic.

Right Field: Jose Bautista Versus Cody Ross

Jose Bautista (Blue Jays): 2011, .302/.447/.608, 43 HR, 103 RBI, 9 SB

Bautista's meteoric ascendance over the past two years has been well documented. He's the game's most feared power hitter, and he has learned to exercise wonderful plate discipline, which helped him raise his batting average by 42 points from 2010 to 2011. He also drew a league-high 132 base on balls.

Bautista is an above average right fielder. He has a strong, accurate arm, and he is solid at patrolling the Rogers Centre outfield.

Cody Ross (Red Sox): 2011, .240/.325/.405, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB

The most likely scenario is that Ross platoons with Ryan Sweeney and/or Darnell McDonald in right field, but he gets the start here.

Ross is coming over from the San Francisco Giants and will look to resurrect his career with the Red Sox. He is serviceable at the plate and possesses mediocre power.

Ross is a steady, if unspectacular, corner outfielder.

Advantage—Blue Jays (Extreme)

While Boston may struggle to get offense out of whoever they end up plugging into right field, the Blue Jays will not. There is no reason to think Bautista will not turn in another MVP-caliber season in 2012.

Designated Hitter: Edwin Encarnacion Versus David Ortiz

Edwin Encarnacion (Blue Jays): 2011, .272/.334/.453, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 8 SB

Encarnacion struggled at the outset of the 2011 season, but bounced back with a strong second half. The feeling in Toronto is that the 29-year-old will have a productive season in 2012.

Encarnacion will top the Blue Jays' depth chart at designated hitter, but he played 61 games in the field last year and may spell starters at first and third, as well as in left field this coming season.

David Ortiz (Red Sox): 2011, .309/.398/.554, 29 HR, 96 RBI, 1 SB

Ortiz continued to put up impressive power numbers in 2011, and hit over .300 for the first time since 2007. Though Red Sox fans are optimistic that playing in a contract year had nothing to do with Ortiz's production last year, it is difficult to imagine him breaking .300 again this season.

That said, Ortiz should remain a legitimate power threat for a year or two to come.

Advantage—Red Sox (Slight)

That the advantage is only "slight" is based more on projection than fact. Encarnacion is poised for a career year, while Ortiz will enter the season as a 36-year-old. I anticipate Ortiz's biggest victory over Encarnacion to come via the on-base percentage department, but the latter's ability to play various positions in the field make this one close.

Starting Rotation: Blue Jays Versus Red Sox

Blue Jays (Projected): Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez, Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan

The Blue Jays rotation is littered with potential. Ace, Ricky Romero, has steadily improved each year in the majors, and last year established himself as a legitimate No.1 starter. Brandon Morrow constantly shows promise, but has yet to put together a real solid season.

Alvarez is a guy who could post a sub-3.50 earned run average this year, while Cecil could do the same if he avoids the long ball.

The final spot in the Jays rotation will be fought over by McGowan and Kyle Drabek. I believe it will go to McGowan, but he will have a short leash. 

All in all, the Jays starting five should be significantly better than last year's group. There is a lot of young talent, and if everything clicks, these five could compose a very impressive unit.

Red Sox (Projected): Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard

The top of the Red Sox rotation is deadly. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz have all pitched like aces at some point over the last three years. If all three stay healthy, they could form one of the best one-two-three punches in the American League.

Aceves and Bard present some question marks going forward. Both have enjoyed successful careers coming out of the pen, but starting the game on the mound is a different beast entirely.

Both have good stuff and may make successful transitions, but once August and September roll around, and they have logged 100-plus innings, things could go down hill fast.

Even if the bottom two struggle, the top three won't let this group fall into the bottom half of the league.

Advantage - Red Sox (Slight)

The Jays have depth on their side, and Ricky Romero fits right in with the best that the Red Sox have to offer, but the combination of Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz is pretty frightening.

Closer: Sergio Santos Versus Andrew Bailey

Sergio Santos (Blue Jays): 2011, 4-5, 3.55 ERA, 30 SV/36 SVO

Santos only has one year experience closing games, but he looks to have a bright future in that role. He was truly hit or miss last year, starting and finishing the season white hot, with some pretty ugly filler in between.

In Toronto, Santos will have the benefit of a stellar group of relievers in front of him that should allow him to get a handful of two- or three-run saves.

Andrew Bailey (Red Sox): 2011, 0-4, 3.24 ERA, 24 SV/26 SVO

The biggest obstacle to Bailey's success is staying healthy. In his career, he has 75 saves in 84 chances, making him one of the most efficient closers in the game.

Gaining the former Oakland Athletic should take the sting out losing Jonathan Papelbon. If Bailey can stay healthy, he is every bit as good as the man he is replacing. 

Advantage—Red Sox (Slight)

Andrew Bailey is a fantastic closer, but health issues have limited his effectiveness. Santos, on the other hand, may develop into an Andrew Bailey-type shutdown man, sans injuries. Only time will tell, but for now, the nod goes to Bailey.

Bullpen: Blue Jays Versus Red Sox

Blue Jays (Projected): Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Casey Janssen, Carlos Villanueva, Luis Perez

Pretty impressive. The Blue Jays had a relatively quiet offseason, but the additions of Oliver, Santos and Cordero, along with the reacquisition of Frasor, make this one of the best bullpens in the game. That is without mentioning the team's best relief pitcher from last season, Casey Janssen.

The bullpen will be one of the team's biggest strengths in 2012. Even if injuries pop up here and there, there are four or five MLB-ready hurlers to step in and fill the gap.

Red Sox (Projected): Andrew Bailey, Mark Melancon, Bobby Jenks, Matt Albers, Franklin Morales, Felix Doubront, Michael Bowden 

The Red Sox needed to pillage their own bullpen to fill out the rotation for the 2012 season, which may lead to some headaches down the line.

The back end of the pen is solid, with Bailey closing and Melancon setting things up, but the middle innings may induce some lead changes.

The young guys, Doubront and Bowden, may develop into reliable relievers, but no one in the group outside of Bailey and Melancon is a shutdown reliever. That is not to say this group is incompetent, as there are a few solid options here, but reliability may become a nagging issue in 2012.

Advantage—Blue Jays (Significant)

The Jays bullpen should rank near the top of the league in earned run average this season. If Sergio Santos continues to grow, it will take Danny Ocean and the gang to steal wins away from Toronto after the sixth inning. 

Team: Blue Jays Versus Red Sox

And the Winner is...

The Red Sox edge out the Blue Jays in this match up, having a minor overall advantage. The Red Sox have an advantage in seven of the 12 areas examined. If we scale the result and attribute a point to each team for every degree of advantage they would have at each position, Boston comes out with a 12-10 victory.

This experiment suggests that the teams are relatively close, and that we can expect them to finish the season with records in the same area code. Each team has some stars and some weak links, but they both come out looking pretty good.

Maybe they will both end up in the playoffs.