San Diego Padres: Breaking Down the Top 5 Prospects in the Padres' Farm System
Despite a changing of the guard in the front office, the San Diego Padres are well stocked in the farm system to compete in the National League West for a long time to come.
Shrewd moves by now-former general manager, Jed Hoyer, and his staff have made this one of the best and deepest systems in baseball. The big league team is not quite ready to challenge for a playoff spot yet, but it won't be long before we talk about them alongside Arizona and San Francisco in the division.
This team has done a great job of scouting for the draft, as well as other team's systems to acquire high-impact talent. Everyone knows about the Adrian Gonzalez and Mat Latos trades, but those deals are just the tip of the prospect iceberg for this franchise.
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Here are the top five prospects that will make the Padres contenders again in the not-to-distant future.
1. Rymer Liriano, OF, 20
After two years of mixed results in the minors, including a demotion from high Class A to low Class A last year, Liriano finally put it all together. He went from a prospect with great tools, to one of the most intriguing players in the minors thanks to his .319/.383/.499 line with Fort Wayne in 2011.
Strengths: He has the best collection of tools in the system. He has great bat speed with quick wrists that allow him to always make solid contact. Good speed will allow him to steal bases with ease. His improved plate discipline last year elevated his stock. He has a strong throwing arm that will allow him to stick in right field.
Weaknesses: His defensive results have been mixed so far. He has the skills to be a good right fielder, but he doesn't read the bat well off the ball. His large frame could take away some of his speed as he matures.
Report: Liriano is a No. 3 hitter in the making. His discipline at the plate, combined with above-average power should allow him to hit for a high average. How well that power plays in Petco Park is a mystery we won't figure out until it happens. Defensively, if he can learn to read the bat off the ball and be more accurate with his throws, he will be at least average.
ETA: 2014
2. Yasmani Grandal, C, 23
The first player on the list acquired in the Latos deal, Grandal had no place in Cincinnati with Devin Mesoraco blocking him. The Padres were happy to get him, and he could make his presence felt later on this season with some more Triple-A seasoning.
Strengths: Grandal is a good hitter, with an easy swing and bat speed that will allow him to hit for average and some power. He can work a count in his favor and will take walks. He is a switch-hitter who is comfortable hitting from either side of the plate. He has a strong enough throwing arm behind the plate.
Weaknesses: Defense has never been his strong suit. He is able to throw out a high percentage of base stealers in the minors thanks to his arms strength, but his receiving skills need a lot of work. He had 13 errors and 19 passed balls last season.
Report: Despite the bad defensive numbers last season, he is making some progress and should be serviceable behind the plate. He will hit for average with a good on-base percentage. He should hit for at least average power in the big leagues.
ETA: Late-2012
3. Yonder Alonso, 1B, 24
With Joey Votto blocking first base in Cincinnati, Alonso became expendable when the team had a chance to acquire Latos. The Padres preferred his hitting style to that of Anthony Rizzo, who they acquired from Boston in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. Rizzo was shipped to Chicago for Andrew Cashner shortly after Alonso was brought on board.
Strengths: Very productive hitter throughout his college and minor league career. He has plate discipline and an easy swing that allows him to hit the ball to the opposite field. His power potential varies depending on who you ask. I see him being able to 20-25 home runs with a lot of doubles in San Diego.
Weaknesses: He has no speed whatsoever, which makes his left field experiment in Cincinnati more laughable. Defensively, he is going to be below average. He doesn't have the lateral quickness to make plays to his right. He does have decent arm strength, but he won't have to use it at first base.
Report: Alonso will be firmly entrenched in the middle of San Diego's lineup starting this season. He will probably end up being their best hitter in 2012, which speaks more about the rest of the team than him. He will hit for a high average with a good on-base percentage and solid power numbers.
ETA: 2012
4. Robbie Erlin, LHP, 21
One of the beauties of Petco Park is that you can create pitchers who will look better than they actually are to use as trade bait for a desperate contender. Erlin was acquired from Texas for Mike Adams at the deadline last year. He is one of the most intriguing pitching prospects because of his outstanding control.
Strengths: Erlin has average stuff, at best, but he commands all of his pitches so well that he can dominate hitters. He has walked just 34 hitters in 260 innings over the last three years covering four levels. His best pitch is a changeup that has great movement, and he has great arm speed when he throws it.
Weaknesses: As good as his command is, hitters can drive his pitches if he isn't locating everything perfectly. His fastball is an average pitch, sitting in the high-80's-low-90's. He works high in the zone, which allows him to get strikeouts now, but it is going to get him in trouble the higher he advances.
Report: There might not be a better control pitcher in the minors than Erlin. He can throw the ball wherever he wants, whenever he wants to. Since he will be pitching primarily in Petco, many of those home runs he gives up in the minors will turn into outs. He could end up as a No. 3 starter, but his numbers will look a lot better than that because of park effects in San Diego.
ETA: 2013
5. Jedd Gyorko. 3B, 23
With four of their top five prospects being hitters, you can tell that the Padres have put a premium on finding all the offensive talent they can in the last few years. Gyorko could end up being the best of the bunch, with an incredible swing that will play regardless of stadium.
Strengths: Gyorko made quite an impression with Lake Elsinore in high Class A to start the season, hitting .365/.429/.638 in 340 at-bats before getting called up to Double-A. That is not a fluke, either. He is a natural hitter and can make adjustments pitch to pitch, not just at-bat to at-bat. His power was enhanced by a friendly hitters' park. He is more likely to have average- to slightly above-average power.
Weaknesses: He is still learning how to play third base. He has soft hands and can catch the ball, but he does not have good range to either side. His small frame will not likely allow him to be more than an average defender at the hot corner.
Report: A terrific pure hitter that can slot in the middle of a lineup, most likely a No. 3 due to his somewhat limited power potential. As long as he can hold his own at third base, he should be an above-average big leaguer.
ETA: 2013



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