MLB: 10 Rotations Destined to Fail to Live Up to Expectations

It’s a common theme throughout Major League Baseball that pitching, along with timely hitting, wins championships.

That theme especially holds true during the playoffs, where the “best of” format focuses more on top of the rotation starters.

Getting a pitching staff through an entire season, especially the dog days of summer, requires depth and consistency.

It’s the rotations that provide quality innings all season that can carry a slumping offense or an injury riddled bullpen through rough stretches.

Every outside expectation placed on a playoff contending rotation is equaled by a front office concern heading into the season.

The following is a list, rated from least to most, of potential playoff rotations that could be destined to fail to live up to their expectations in 2012.

All rotational depth charts can be found at MLB.com.

10. Detroit Tigers (Concerns: Inconsistency, Infield Defense)

1. Justin Verlander
2. Doug Fister
3. Max Scherzer
4. Rick Porcello
5. Jacob Turner

Depth: Andrew Oliver, Casey Crosby and Drew Smyly

Every team has a number one starter, but the Detroit Tigers have one of the few true aces in Major League Baseball in Justin Verlander.

The main concern for opposing teams facing Verlander is that he is where team losing streaks come to die.  He is on the mound, odds are that Detroit is going to win.

The next three starters, however, have all been inconsistent as recently as last season. 2011 was the tale of two halves for Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello.

Is Fister the pre-trade pitcher from Seattle that was 3-12 with a SO/BB ratio of 2.76? Or, was the post-trade performance of 8-1 with a SO/BB spike of 11.40 more of what is to be expected in 2012?

Fister’s strikeout rate can be attributed to an increase in velocity and the impeccable control he showed once he joined the Tigers rotation. The signs are there for Fister to become the next in line behind Verlander, but there is that pre-2011 history of being a soft-tossing righty that he will need to continue to dismiss.

Scherzer has been the definition of inconsistent since joining the Tigers two seasons ago. He had a slow start to both the 2010 and 2011 seasons, only to finish strong each time.

2010: 1st Half (4.61 ERA, 1.367 WHIP) 2nd Half (2.47 ERA, 1.137 WHIP)

2011: 1st Half (4.69 ERA, 1.437 WHIP) 2nd Half (4.09 ERA, 1.231 WHIP)

The hope for Detroit is that Scherzer builds on his strong finish to last season, but those were the same hopes that were felt after the 2010 season.

Porcello has been nothing more than a mediocre pitcher since a solid rookie season in 2009.

Good pitching has a lot to do with good fielding and Porcello’s ground ball tendencies won’t match up well with the new Detroit infield.

9. Atlanta Braves (Concerns: Injuries, Youth)

1. Tim Hudson
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Tommy Hanson
4. Brandon Beachy
5. Mike Minor

Depth: Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado

Atlanta has as many question marks surrounding its rotation heading into the upcoming season as it does pitching talent.

Will their top three starters come back healthy from injuries?

Will Jair Jurrjens be traded before the club heads north?

Can Mike Minor handle a full season’s workload? Are Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado ready to take the next step?

Tim Hudson has been the rotation’s anchor over the past couple seasons with an average of 221 innings. His age (36) and injuries (back) will eventually cause a regression in his ability to be such a workhorse.

There were some early concerns that his offseason back surgery might keep him from starting the season in Atlanta’s rotation, but he says he expects to be ready to participate in Spring Training.

Outside of the veteran Hudson, the remaining members of the pitching staff will be 26 years of age or younger during the 2012 season.

The Braves shutdown Tommy Hanson in early-August due to right shoulder discomfort, the Braves front office expects him to be 100 percent for Spring Training. Hanson will need to be the one to take the reins from Hudson if his production begins to decline.

Continuing with the injury trend, Jair Jurrjens will pitch this season with a brace on his right knee.

Like Hanson, Jurrjens’ second half struggles were injury related (6.17 ERA in August).

It has been well advertised this offseason that Atlanta is willing to deal Jurrjens for an outfield bat. Any trade would open the door for either Teheran or Delgado to take a back-end rotation spot.

Both players struggled with control during their brief time in the big leagues last year. Their talent is not the question.  Will that talent mature in time for a playoff push is.

8. Texas Rangers (Concerns: The Unknown)

1. Colby Lewis
2. Yu Darvish
3. Derek Holland
4. Neftali Feliz
5. Matt Harrison

Depth: Alexi Ogando, Scott Feldman, Michael Kirkman and Martin Perez

Arlington will be home to the great unknown this season as Texas banks on talent over major league starting experience.

There is little doubt the Rangers did their homework before signing Yu Darvish.  They sent 12 staff members to watch him pitch in an estimated 50 games over the last two years.

Regardless of how comfortable the Rangers feel with Darvish, questions still remain because of the precedent set by previous Japanese pitchers attempting to make the transition to Major League Baseball.

Can Darvish handle the summer heat Texas brings?

How fast can he make the proper adjustments after major league hitters do the same to him?

One adjustment he will need to make during the spring will be to cut back on his multitude of pitches and focus on a three pitch offering.

The unknown that is Darvish also can be found at the feet of former closer Neftali Feliz.

A strikeout-per-nine innings ratio that dropped last season (9.22 to 7.80) combined with a lack of control that caused a jump in his walks-per-nine innings (2.34 to 4.33) are both possible red flags in the attempt to insert him back into the rotation.

Feliz has not started a game in over two years, which leaves little doubt that he will be put on an innings limit as the season progresses.

That begs the question: Will Feliz be available to start games in the playoffs or will he be relegated back to the bullpen as a set-up man?

After such an increase in innings, will he have the arm strength to perform in either role in October?

Colby Lewis gets the nod as the Opening Day starter, but his 56 home runs allowed over the past two seasons has to be more than troublesome for manager Ron Washington.

Lewis is more of an innings-eater type pitcher than an Opening Day starter.

Speaking of innings, will anybody step up and replace the 223 quality innings left behind by the departure of C.J. Wilson?

7. Arizona Diamondbacks (Concerns: Back-End of Rotation, Youthful Depth)

1. Ian Kennedy
2. Daniel Hudson
3. Trevor Cahill
4. Josh Collmenter
5. Joe Saunders

Depth: Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer

With their sights set on another National League West crown, the Diamondbacks wanted to find a pitcher to fill the number three spot behind Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson.

To speed up the process, Arizona dealt top prospect Jarrod Parker to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for Trevor Cahill.

Cahill is more of an innings eater than the top of the rotation pitcher he has been perceived to be  since the trade.

There’s no denying his sinker produces an excessive amount of ground balls. It’s his 3.38 career BB/9 that draws the most concern given his low strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio (5.76) doesn’t allow him to miss enough bats to avoid trouble.

He hasn’t had a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) below 4.10 in any of his three MLB seasons. Even during the 2010 season when his ERA was 2.97, his FIP was still 4.19.

Moving from the spacious Coliseum in Oakland to hitter friendly Chase Field will have a negative effect on any pitcher regardless of how good his sinker is.

Josh Collmenter’s deceptive, over the top delivery made it hard for hitters to pick up the ball early in games. It was the second time through the lineup that proved challenging.

First plate appearance in a game hitters were .176/.206/.252 with 5.86 SO/BB.

Second plate appearance hitters were .305/.346/.479 with 2.38 SO/BB.

The re-signing of Joe Saunders to a one-year contract gives the Diamondbacks an established major league starter to slot into the back-end of the rotation as a placeholder for prospects Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer.

With Skaggs and Bauer having no major league experience, Arizona must hope Collementer and Saunders can repeat last season’s production.

6. New York Yankees (Concerns: Pressure on Pineda, Kuroda’s FB/LD increase)

1. CC Sabathia
2. Ivan Nova
3. Michael Pineda
4. Hiroki Kuroda
5. Phil Hughes

Depth: AJ Burnett and Freddy Garcia

CC Sabathia falls under that ace category that was discussed earlier with Justin Verlander.

Sabathia is coming off five consecutive seasons of 230-plus innings and the lefty also finished with his second highest strikeout total with 230.

Newly acquired Michael Pineda is physically comparable to Sabathia and his frontline stuff has Yankee fans revving up the hype machine early.

Pineda is still, shall we say, “green” when it comes to the major league lifestyle.

Combine the move to New York City with the pressure of pitching in the American League East, and all of the sudden Pineda has a heavy burden on his shoulders that was never there in Seattle.

His ERA (3.03 to 5.12) and WHIP (1.035 to 1.224) both rose last season, but a positive sign was his ability to maintain a 3.16 K/BB ratio.

Legit concern or not, Hiroki Kuroda’s unwillingness to accept a trade to an east coast team at the trade deadline last season has to make fans wonder if he is ready to face the constant pressure of pitching in big games.

At age 37, the real trouble could come in the form of an increased fly ball rate in 2011 (32.1 percent to 34.7). On the surface that doesn’t seem to be much of a change, but it has to be coupled with an increase in his line drive rate (16.8 to 22.0).

If that trend continues, the move from a pitchers park to a hitter’s haven doesn’t bode well for Kuroda.

Probably the best news coming from the signings of Pineda and Kuroda was that it will push Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett or Freddy Garcia into the fifth spot.

The bad news is that one of those arms will be the fifth starter.

5. Boston Red Sox (Concerns: Injuries, Bard as a SP and Quality Depth)

1. John Lester
2. Josh Beckett
3. Clay Buchholz
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
5. Daniel Bard

Depth: Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller, Aaron Cook and Vicente Padilla

For Boston it’s John Lester, Josh Beckett and cross your fingers.

Clay Buchholz will be returning from a stress fracture in his lower back that limited him to 14 starts last season. Prior to his injury, Buchholz was on his way to backing up a breakout 2010 campaign with a solid 2011 season.

The ability to give the Red Sox a full workload coming off a back injury is no guarantee, but it’s almost a must for their playoff hopes, especially with Daisuke Matsuzaka likely to miss half the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Even when healthy, Matsuzaka can’t be counted on to provide anything of quality to the pitching staff. In each of the past three seasons, he has posted an ERA of 5.76, 4.69 and 5.30 respectfully.

Boston is going to give Daniel Bard every chance to win a rotation spot even though he hasn’t started a game since 2007 at the Class-A level.

Looking at the stats from that season, it’s easy to why he was moved to the bullpen. Bard had an 8.17 BB/9 and a 6.42 ERA in 61.2 innings.

Alfredo Aceves is the front runner to replace the injured Matsuzaka.

None of the candidates to fill rotation spots behind Lester and Beckett pitched a full season worth of innings in 2011, and that is alarming once you consider the lack of quality depth the Red Sox currently have.

Boston will look make a deal to enhance the rotation and recent reports have the them offering free agent Edwin Jackson a one-year contract worth $5-6 million.

4. St. Louis Cardinals (Concerns: Age, Injury and Depth)

1. Adam Wainwright
2. Chris Carpenter
3. Kyle Lohse
4. Jaime Garcia
5. Jake Westbrook

Depth: Marc Rzepczynski, Kyle McClellan and Shelby Miller

The biggest question mark coming into the season is the health of Adam Wainwright.

Recovering from Tommy John surgery, he is expected to be on the mound in Spring Training.

Expectations should be toned down for Wainwright’s 2012 return. He will likely be limited to 150-170 innings and those innings won’t all be vintage Wainwright.

Chris Carpenter will again be counted on to lead this Cardinals rotation, but age (37) ultimately takes its toll on pitchers.

Adding to his 237.1 regular season innings was another 36 in the post season. How his body responds over the long haul of another 30-plus start season will be the key to the rotation.

The 2011 version of Kyle Lohse should not be expected to return in 2012.

He is coming of a career best 3.39 ERA over 30 starts, but look for that to be more in the range of his 4.64 career number next season.

With the recent courtship of Roy Oswalt, it seems the Cardinals’ confidence is lacking in Jake Westbrook, as it should be after a season where he allowed 10.2 H/9 and 3.6 BB/9.

It will be interesting to see how newly anointed manager, Mike Matheny, handles the pitching staff.

Matheny’s decisions in that area will be critical to the success of the Cardinals; particularly with age beginning to creep into the rotation, Wainwright coming of surgery and the loss of Dave Duncan as pitching coach.

3. Cincinnati Reds (Concerns: Production behind Cueto and Latos, Injuries)

1. Johnny Cueto
2. Mat Latos
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Homer Bailey
5. Mike Leake

Depth: Aroldis Chapman

The Cincinnati Reds are coming off a disappointing season from their pitching staff.  A team ERA of 4.16 ranked in the bottom half of Major League Baseball.

In need of a frontline starter, the Reds literally traded the farm for Mat Latos.

How long will it take him to adjust to such a homer friendly ballpark?

If it doesn’t happen quickly, it’s possible his past maturity issues could cause him to be mentality affected by the smaller dimensions.

Could last season have been a career year for Johnny Cueto? Some of his advanced numbers indicate that is possible.

The dramatic drop in his career HR/9 (1.05 to 0.46) will be hard to duplicate again at the Great American Ballpark.

Bronson Arroyo has been a 200-inning machine for years, but that has come with a consistently declining strikeout rate. 

Has age and workload finally caught up to Arroyo?

As a top prospect, there was hope Homer Bailey would be a top of the rotation pitcher.  At 25 years old there is still hope that he will be a mid-rotation guy. To this point, however, injuries and performance have made him a back-end pitcher at best.

Aroldis Chapman’s switch from the bullpen to the rotation got off to a disappointing start. After only 2.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League, Chapman had to be shut down for shoulder inflammation.

Plans for him to pitch in winter ball were canceled, making Spring Training his first true effort to become a starter. All that means is it will be doubtful he goes north with his teammates.

2. Miami Marlins (Concerns: JJ’s Recovery, Production from Big Z)

1. Josh Johnson
2. Mark Buehrle
3. Ricky Nolasco
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. Carlos Zambrano

Depth: Wade LeBlanc, Brad Hand and Alex Sanabia

The success or failure of the Miami Marlins rotation rides on the injured shoulder of Josh Johnson.

When healthy, Johnson has Cy Young ability. He posted a 1.64 ERA, .098 WHIP and 56 strikeouts in 60.1 innings last season before his injury sidelined him for the remainder of the season.

He has pitched less than 100 innings in three of the past six years, leaving his health a major question heading into a season were the Marlins expect to challenge for the playoffs after some big offseason moves.

Mark Buehrle has always lacked the dominant “stuff” that Johnson possesses, but he brings the reliability of 11 consecutive 200-plus inning seasons.

Ricky Nolasco has frustrated Marlin fans for years by flashing moments of excellence and then not being able to sustain it for long stretches.

Nolasco became very hittable last season, finishing second in MLB by allowing 244 hits.

The most positive attribute Carlos Zambrano brings with him to Miami is that he is one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball.

For a pitcher coming off the worst season of his career, the risk outweighs the reward by such a wide margin that the Chicago Cubs couldn’t agree fast enough to pay $15 of the $18 million still owed to Zambrano.

1. Washington Nationals (Concerns: IP Limits, Depth)

1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Gio Gonzalez
3. Jordan Zimmerman
4. John Lannan
5. Chien-Ming Wang

Depth: Ross Detwiler and Tom Gorzelanny

UPDATE: Since this column was written, the official Washington Nationals twitter feed has reported that Edwin Jackson has agreed to a one-year contract, pending a physical.

The consideration this rotation is getting as one of the best in baseball is a bit premature considering the innings limit that will be put on Stephen Strasburg and the lack of depth after the top three.

As much talent as this rotation brings to the Washington Nationals, the expectations of this group will be hard to meet and is likely at least a year away.

Strasburg is the headliner and he didn’t disappoint when he returned to the mound after recovering from his Tommy John surgery. In five starts last season he struck out 24 in 24 innings with a 0.71 WHIP.

Expect Strasburg’s 2012 season to be similar to Jordan Zimmerman’s 2011 in the fact that he will be limited to roughly 160 innings.

Zimmerman, however, should be able to take on a full workload this year with no lingering health concerns.

Nationals fans were excited with the addition of Gio Gonzalez, but he doesn’t have the same class of talent has the two aforementioned pitchers.

The biggest concern with Gonzalez is whether or not he will be able to continue to strand 77.1 percent of base runners outside of Oakland, especially with a BB/9 as high as his 4.05 was last season.

The lack of depth in the rotation sometimes gets lost amongst all the talk of Strasburg, Zimmerman and Gonzalez.

John Lannan and Chien-Ming Wang are serviceable back-end starters, but that’s all that should be expected of those two.

Asking Lannan to repeat last year’s sub-4.00 ERA will be difficult as his career numbers suggest he is not that kind of pitcher.

Wang returned from injury to start 11 games and did as well as could have been expected, though it is doubtful he can give Washington more than 140-150 innings next season.

Between Strasburg and probably Wang, the amount of innings that will need to be filled will be more than the depth of the pitching staff can handle. The possibility of injury or ineffectiveness would also reach into that lack of depth.