Boston Red Sox: David Ortiz Looking for a Big Payday in Arbitration Hearing

When David Ortiz filed for arbitration, he set the bar fairly high, asking for $16.5 million from the Boston Red Sox to play in 2012.

On the flip side, the Red Sox offered him $12.5 million to perform the same duties.  Clearly the two are worlds apart.

For Ortiz, the $16.5 million would signify a $4 million payroll increase from 2011.  The Red Sox were content offering Ortiz the same salary he earned in 2011, where he led all designated hitters in home runs, OBP, SLG and OPS.  In other words, he hit pretty well.

But did he hit well enough to merit a $4 million raise?

From 2008 through 2010, Ortiz was earning $13 million per season.  Over those three years, he averaged 126 hits, highlighted by his 140-hit performance in 2010.  He averaged 34 doubles, 28 home runs, 97 RBI, highlighted by his only 100-plus RBI performance in recent years coming in 2010.

Ortiz managed a batting line that averaged out as: .257/.357/.499/.857.  He managed to play the field exactly 10 times (at first base) in those same three seasons.

In 2011, Ortiz bested his own numbers in several categories by managing 162 H, 40 doubles, a .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG and .953 OPS while posting 29 home runs (his second-best figure in four years) and 96 RBI (third-best in four years).

The question becomes, is an aging David Ortiz worth a 25 percent raise in 2012?

Looking at the DH role moving forward, it is a position of flexibility.  Compare Ortiz to the other top-performing designated hitters in 2011: Michael Young, Matt Joyce, Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui and Jim Thome; all of which played or is capable of playing a fair amount of time in the field.

Moving forward, teams are looking at the role as a position of versatility.  The Yankees are considering a rotation DH spot, while the Angels are suited to do the same thing.  Ortiz is capable of playing first base, and while he is not a terrible fielder (career .989 FP, -3.7 UZR, .799 TZR, -1.3 TZL) he also is no Adrian Gonzalez.

That being said, and all else being equal, Ortiz is literally a one-dimensional player.  He provides offense and gets on base, but gives you nothing in terms of versatility.  In contrast, the Texas Rangers have Michael Young as their primary DH who is slated to earn $16 million in 2012 and 2013, respectively.  Young can play every infield position if need be as well.

With that in mind, it is worth noting that Young can therefore (and has) play in more games, which equates to more plate appearances, which trickles down into more hits and RBI.  Young also had more doubles and triples than Ortiz in 2011.  In theory, what he lacks in home run power, he still makes up for with extra base hits.

Once again, the question now: is an aging David Ortiz worth a 25 percent raise in 2012?

Going into these arbitration hearings, I will be shocked to see Ortiz receive the $16 million he is seeking.  

In a previous piece, I anticipated Ortiz and the Sox splitting the difference and agreeing on a $14.575 million deal for 2012.  After doing some more analysis, I find it more likely that Ortiz will be lucky to get the same $13 million he was making form 2008 to 2010.  While his numbers are solid, the role of DH is changing.  

It is safe to say the game is changing as well.