New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers: Breaking Down the NFC Championship Game

The Giants are one game away from getting back to the Super Bowl.

A season that started out with potential and almost got derailed into disaster, now has a bright future that could lead to a magical finish.

Last week, we saw the Giants knock off the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers 37-20 at Lambeau Field.

The Packers were the odd-on favorite to repeat as champions since they were 15-1 and had the No. 1 ranked offense in the NFL, but the Giants defense held the Packers offense down and forced them into making crucial mistakes.

And now, the Giants have a date with the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park in the NFC Championship Game.

The Giants and 49ers are certainly no strangers to each other as they did play each other this season, which we will get to in this story.

They also are no strangers to each other in playoff history.

And now, the full breakdown of Sunday night's NFC Championship Game.

November 13, 2011: 49ers 27, Giants 20

Two months ago during Week 10 of the 2011 season, the 6-2 Giants and 7-1 49ers was the game of the week.

It was a classic NFC-style game; very hard fought and came down to the wire.

In this game, the Giants were missing one of their biggest weapons in running back Ahmad Bradshaw, as he was out with an injury.

Down 27-20, the Giants and Eli Manning had the ball at the 20-yard line with 6:35 to go in the game.

Manning drove the offense down the field and got the Giants down to the 49ers' 10-yard line. On 3rd-and-2, the Giants ran D.J. Ware, but he was stopped for no-gain on a play that offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride should not have called.

On 4th-and-2, Manning tried to get the ball to Jake Ballard, but the pass was deflected by Justin Smith and the 49ers subsequently ran out the clock.

The 49ers held on to win 27-20 putting their record at 8-1, while the Giants dropped to 6-3 and was at the starting point of a four-game losing streak.

Bradshaw was out of the game, Justin Tuck was a non-factor due to nagging injuries and Michael Boley left the game due to an injury.

The Giants weren't at full strength for this game. They will be for this one on Sunday.

Giants Offense vs. 49ers Defense

The Giants offense has had its up and downs, but lately, they are coming together at the right time.

In the last four games, they have scored a total of 121 points, averaging just over 30 per game. Eli Manning has this team running on all cylinders.

The Giants compiled a total of 442 yards against the Falcons and 420 yards against the Packers.

Eli Manning has thrown for 277 yards and 330 yards in both playoff games. He's the key to the offense. When Eli plays well, the Giants win.

On defense, the 49ers were near the top of the NFL in 2011, allowing only 229 total points.

Linebacker Aldon Smith had 14 sacks and defensive end Justin Smith had 7.5. Linebacker Navorro Bowman had 116 total tackles, cornerback Carlos Rogers had six interceptions and safety Dashon Goldson also had six interceptions.

They have good, young players on defense. Perhaps their best player, linebacker Patrick Willis, had 82 total tackles, two sacks and one interception.

In their NFC Divisional Game against the New Orleans Saints, they gave up 32 points and 472 total yards, including 462 passing yards.

They did cause five turnovers, including two interceptions off Drew Brees, but Brees still passed for 462 yards and four touchdowns.

If the Giants offense plays anywhere near the level the Saints did against the 49ers, putting the ball up in the air, and not making the same mistakes, then it's very possible the Giants can score a ton of points as well.

Giants Defense vs. 49ers Offense

The Giants defense has turned itself around after a disappointing start to the 2011 season.

From Week 16 on, the Giants have allowed a total of 50 points (48 if you want to be technical because the two points the Falcons had was not scored against the defense), which totals out to just 12.5 points per game for opposing offenses.

The defense has 17 sacks in the last four games as well, which is their main strength. They put pressure on the quarterback.

In their game against the 49ers back in November, the Giants allowed 305 total yards, 242 of which were passing.

They held the running game of the 49ers down as Frank Gore was limited to six carries for no yards gained before leaving the game with a knee injury. Kendall Hunter took over, rushing six times for 40 yards, which included a 17-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter that made it 27-13 49ers.

Against the Saints, the 49ers had 407 total yards on offense.

Alex Smith threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns and Gore had 89 rushing yards and 38 receiving yards.

Smith rallied the 49ers down from 32-29 and threw a 14-yard game winning touchdown pass to Vernon Davis, which put them ahead 36-32.

The 49ers averaged around 23 points per game during the regular season and last week was only the fourth time they scored 30 or more points.

The key for the Giants is how much pressure they can put on Smith, who was sacked 44 times in 2011.

The Saints sacked Smith four times and caused two fumbles. If the Giants can create that kind of pressure against the 49ers, they can have success on Sunday.

Giants vs. 49ers Playoff History

The Giants and 49ers are no strangers to meeting each other in the playoffs.

The 2002 NFC Wild Card Game on January 5, 2003 may be the most painful game that I've ever watched in all my years as a fan.

The Giants were leading 38-14 in the third quarter, and then disaster truck.

The 49ers scored 17 points in the fourth quarter, the go-ahead touchdown coming on a 13-yard touchdown pass from Jeff Garcia to Tai Streets which made the score 39-38 49ers.

The Giants, led by Kerry Collins, rallied to try and win the game. The Giants set up for a 41-yard field goal for Matt Bryant.

The Giants long-snapper, Trey Junkin, who was signed for this game, botched the snap to holder/punter Matt Allen, who had to improvise and threw the ball downfield to Rich Seubert.

Seubert was clearly pulled down by Chike Okeafor, which should have been called pass interference, but the referees thought Seubert was ineligible downfield, and the 49ers held on to win 39-38.

After the game, the referees had to apologize to the Giants because Seubert in fact was eligible and pass interference should have been called, allowing another attempt for Bryant to kick a field goal to win the game.

That wasn't the only time the 49ers won against the Giants in the playoffs.

In the 1993 playoffs on January 15, 1994, the 49ers embarrassed the Giants 44-3 at Candlestick Park.

What was significant about that game was it was the last for a pair of legends in quarterback Phil Simms and Lawrence Taylor, who subsequently retired from the NFL.

Kind of a bummer way for both Simms and LT to end their careers.

The Giants have also had success against the 49ers in the playoffs.

In the 1990 NFC Championship Game, the Giants beat the 49ers 15-13 in a game that was mostly scored with field goals. Giants kicker Matt Bahr hit five field goals, two of which were in the fourth quarter.

The Giants then went on to defeat the Buffalo Bills 20-19 in Super Bowl XXV.

In the 1986 NFC Divisional Round, at Giants Stadium, the Giants flat out embarrassed the 49ers 49-3. Phil Simms threw for four touchdowns and the Giants defense held Joe Montana to just 98 yards passing.

The Giants then went on to defeat the Washington Redskins 17-0 in the NFC Championship Game and the Denver Broncos 39-20 in Super Bowl XXI.

Notice that when the Giants knock off the 49ers in the playoffs, they end up winning the Super Bowl.

Prediction

Last week, I picked the Giants to defeat the Packers. I got that one right.

And this past week, I said the Giants were on a Super Bowl run similar to the one they had in 2007.

So yes, I am picking the Giants to knock off the 49ers on Sunday.

The Giants are the NFL's hottest team right now. Their offense is playing very well and their defense is much improved.

Plus, the Giants under head coach Tom Coughlin are battle-tested and are very familiar to being in a pressure-situation game like the one they will face on Sunday.

This is the first conference championship the current 49ers under Alex Smith and head coach Jim Harbaugh will ever be in. Are they ready for what is coming to Candlestick Park on Sunday night? They passed the first test against the Saints, but the NFC Championship Game is a different animal.

A major difference from Week 10 and now is that the Giants are healthy and are playing at such a high level right now, especially Eli Manning.

When Manning plays well, the Giants win in the postseason. When the Giants defense puts pressure on their opponents, the Giants win.

And when the Giants play like they did in 2007, when they were the hottest team in the NFL, just like they are now, it seems like nobody is going to stop them.

The Saints last week proved that a high-powered offense can score on the 49ers defense. The Giants can easily put up points.

But the difference is that the Giants defense is playing well (especially better than the Saints) and are getting pressure and causing turnovers. Causing Alex Smith to make mistakes will be the ultimate factor in this game, which I think the Giants will be able to do.

In the end, I see the Giants knocking off the 49ers and advancing to Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis.

Prediction: Giants 28, 49ers 17

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