Predicting the X-Factors and the Outcome for Both Conference Championship Games

The NFC and AFC Championships have had some great games in the past 10 years.

Indianapolis rallying from down 18 to beat Brady and the Pats. Eli and the Giants coming out with a crazy win in the Frozen Tundra. Drew Brees defeating Brett Favre and sending the Saints to the Super Bowl.

And there were the X-factors.

To win a football game, you have to have players that can step up and make plays when necessary. If you don't, you won't win. The conference championship games apply that factor and take it to a new level.

So who needs to step up come Sunday? Let's find out.

Baltimore Ravens X-Factor: Torrey Smith

Last week, we saw Anquan Boldin snag four passes, score one touchdown and post numbers far better than any other Baltimore receiver. That includes Torrey Smith.

Smith caught one pass for nine yards, and with opponents sticking their best cornerback on the speedy rookie, things are becoming a lot harder for Smith. Jonathan Joseph bottled up Smith, and Smith only caught 25 percent of the passes intended for him.

In the last three weeks, against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Houston, Smith has caught eight passes for 78 yards. Unless Boldin tops 10 catches and 100 yards or Lee Evans, Dennis Pitta or someone else steps up, Baltimore is in for a long day.

Either Kyle Arrington or Devin McCourty will be assigned Smith. If Smith can't break free and use his speed to his advantage, he'll be bottled up and the Patriots terrible pass defense will catch a break.

The bottom line is that a big game from Smith will lead to opponents focusing less on Boldin, who has 61 receptions for 960 yards and four scores (including playoffs, 15 games) this year. So if Smith breaks out, so will Boldin.

New England Patriots X-Factor: Stevan Ridley

Stevan Ridley went from a little-known running back on a great team (LSU) to splitting carries on the New England Patriots. Now, he's the X-factor for the AFC Championship Game.

To get Tom Brady going, New England needs to establish the run. They may not have needed the run last week against the Broncos, but this week, against Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and co., it will come up big.

Ridley has averaged 5.1 yards per carry, the most on the team, and he has over 400 yards and a touchdown, but he has yet to establish himself as a home run threat, with 33 yards being his longest carry (87 carries).

BenJarvus Green-Ellis got the bulk of the carries against the Broncos, but lately, Ridley's load has been increasing. He should get a good amount of carries, and if Ridley steps up, Brady will too.

The run hasn't been strong for New England in a long time, but one big game from Ridley and that could all change. The LSU product has had a strong season, but one big game could change everything and forever put him in the Patriot history books.

Prediction: Baltimore vs. New England

It's Ray Lewis versus Rob Gronkowski with a Super Bowl berth on the line.

We've seen Lewis here before. We've seen Tom Brady here. But never have we seen Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Torrey Smith or many of the key players.

So the newbies have to get exposed to these kind of games, because with the teams they're on, they'll be back. But for now, we have record-setting tight end Rob Gronkowski (21 touchdowns including playoffs) and big-play target Aaron Hernandez in their first appearance.

"The Gronk" has come through numerous times. Hernandez has too. If they don't come through, Wes Welker and Deion Branch slip by coverage and catch a Brady pass. This Patriot team may be more dangerous than ever.

However, according to Brady, Baltimore's the best team they've faced all season. And it may be true.

The Raven D, anchored by linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed, has haunted opponents for years. Last week, they forced four turnovers in a 20-13 win over the Houston Texans.

Questions have come up about quarterback Joe Flacco, who hasn't been able to come through and lead his team to the Super Bowl, despite a 5-3 playoff record in his fourth year. Last week, he struggled, although he threw two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Against a below-average Patriot pass defense, that is unacceptable.

Ray Rice has to get going for Baltimore, and if he loses the running back battle to Stevan Ridley, you can call this one a day. Because chances are, Brady will outplay Flacco.

Baltimore's D is good, but can they contain two monstrous tight ends and two decent receivers, plus one of the best quarterbacks of all time? My answer to that? No.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Ravens 17

New York Giants X-Factor: Jason Pierre-Paul

The New York Giants front four has been feared all season. However, without a big performance in the NFC Championship Game, all of that is forgotten.

Quarterbacks have struggled, sacks have been taken, interceptions have been made and games have been won. To win this game, the front four has to plow through the Niners O-line and force Alex Smith to make a mistake.

Pierre-Paul is the leader of that, and he can plow through defensive linemen, knock down passes and even block field goals. The 6'5", 278-pound D-lineman has earned a Pro Bowl selection, and he must play like that.

Earlier in the season, Alex Smith threw for a touchdown in the 49ers 27-20 win over the Giants. Kendall Hunter ran for a 17-yard score, and in the late third quarter and early fourth quarter, the front four got lit up.

If that happens again, New York is in for a long day.

San Francisco 49ers X-Factor: Michael Crabtree

This picture does indicate that Michael Crabtree caught a touchdown pass against the Saints. However, when you only catch four out of 10 passes thrown your way, and you drop three of them, that's never good.

Thanks to Vernon Davis catching seven passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns, San Francisco survived. But New York will be keying in on Davis, so Crabtree needs to take advantage of this opportunity.

You make plays, you get to the Super Bowl. How does that sound?

For Crabtree, it's got to sound pretty good. He caught 72 passes for 874 yards and four touchdowns, but the Giants held him to one catch for 21 yards. In that game, Delanie Walker was the leading receiver.

If that happens again, San Francisco is dead. Unless Ted Ginn Jr. or Kyle Williams have amazing games, Crabtree has to make plays. He must get open (like we've seen him do a lot), get his hands on the ball and hang on to it.

Without a big performance from Crabtree, who knows how the 49ers will do.

Prediction: New York Giants vs. San Francisco

It's back to the past: Giants vs. 49ers, Super Bowl on the line.

We've seen some great games at Candlestick between these two. New York forced a Roger Craig fumbled and beat the 49ers, 15-13. Jeff Garcia led the 49ers from down 24 to beat the Giants in 2002.

Here's one more to add: Eli Manning vs. Alex Smith.

The Eli vs. Peyton hype will only grow if the Giants win, and even if they don't win, Eli will still be 6-4 in the playoffs, better than Peyton's 9-10 record.

Patrick Willis, Justin Smith and the amazing 49ers defense stand in the way.

This year, Justin Smith has been an absolute beast, easily taking down two linemen and either pressuring the quarterback or allowing others to pressure the quarterback. Willis has anchored the middle, making key tackles, picking off passes and forcing fumbles.

If that defense gets to Eli Manning, his Giants are in for a long, long day.

And if that happens, Alex Smith will be in the Super Bowl. Who saw that happening a year ago?

Smith has stepped up this year, completed passes and made plays. Including the playoffs, Smith has thrown for 20 touchdowns and just five interceptions, and he has ran for a score in the 49ers last two games.

Expect Frank Gore to have a mediocre game running the ball, but to have a few catches, Kendall Hunter to have a couple catches out of the backfield, Vernon Davis catching a few passes and Michael Crabtree making the big play.

So while Eli Manning has a reputation for being clutch, the New Orleans game gave Alex the same reputation. Alex will come through again in the clutch, Vernon Davis will get lost in coverage and catch the game-winner.

San Francisco, welcome home.

Prediction: San Francisco 27, New York Giants 24