Giants vs 49ers: 6 Keys to a San Francisco Win in NFC Championship Game

Looking back on the Nov. 13 regular-season matchup in San Francisco, there are plenty of turning points the New York Giants can say got away, and the result was a 27-20 loss.

The Giants have since won their last four games, including two playoff games against Atlanta and Green Bay.

Last week’s divisional playoff victory over the Packers has since raised the Giants’ confidence level to all-time highs, and it should. 49er coach Jim Harbaugh said in his press conference Monday that the Giants look healthier, especially at linebacker, and are much more effective.

For all the benefit that comes in hosting a championship game, the fact that the Giants are playing their best at this point makes this game particularly challenging for the 49ers. Here are six keys to winning Sunday’s NFC Championship game.

Nicks Cruz Manningham

The lasting impression from last November’s game was the amazing, brilliant deep throws by Giants quarterback Eli Manning. The third-quarter TD strike to Mario Manningham despite the good coverage by Chris Culliver was the first.

In the fourth quarter, the 32-yarder for a TD to Hakeem Nicks was solid, but the deep throw that just missed Manningham (pictured) is the one that lingers in the Giants minds. But then, the 18-yard throw up the left sideline to Manningham again that beat the coverage of Dashon Goldson was a thing of beauty. It sparked the Giants’ last-gasp drive.

The word on Eli Manning was that pressure from the middle distracted him. Not anymore. This is a quarterback possessing deadly accuracy with three receivers who can stretch the secondary.

Good coverage and no missed tackles will be essential.

Run

The NFL is a big-play league, meaning yardage that comes in big chunks is usually the way to go. The Niners did it last week with five plays longer than 25 yards, and two of them were runs.

More of the same will be needed this Sunday.

The good news for the 49ers is that Frank Gore is much healthier than when the two teams met earlier. Also, the Giants ranked on the lower third in defending the run at 3.5 yards per attempt and have yielded an average of 4.4 in their last four wins.

Green Bay got 147 yards on the ground, and even though 66 of that came on seven scrambles by Aaron Rodgers, the Giants still averaged about 4.4 yards allowed.

With a healthy Gore, the Niners may emphasize the run much more than they did against the Saints. Moreover, the Giants’ front four is much more effective against the pass, so running early and often can help take the edge off their pass rush.

Avoid the Big Mistake

Last November, the Giants took a 13-12 lead over the 49ers. Manningham’s TD catch over Culliver capped a 10-play, 84-yard drive. The Giants looked comfortable and in control. The Niners went 3-and-out on offense and punted.

Manning took control again on the ensuing possession with 1:17 left in the quarter on their own 15. A short run by DJ Ware sandwiched by two incompletions brought on punter Steve Weatherford, whose best effort was a 29-yard punt.

Two Kendall Hunter runs and another by Anthony Dixon set up Alex Smith’s short pass to Vernon Davis, who beat the coverage and ran the final 25 yards for the TD. Michael Crabtree caught a two-point conversion pass to make it 20-13.

On the ensuing possession, after another run, Manning tried to find Manningham deep over the middle. Carlos Rogers picked it off and returned it 17 yards to the 17. Hunter scored on the next play for the 27-13 lead.

It’s the sort of quick turnaround that the Niners have never had to face, and it was one that even a hot Manning could not overcome. Which brings us to…

Field Position

On average, the Niners started their drives on the 35-yard line, compared to the 19 for the Giants. That 16-yard difference doesn’t seem like much, but it’s nearly two first downs worth of effort to make up the difference.

And this is where 49er coach Brad Seely has had a huge effect on the team’s success. The Niners, led by special teams beast Blake Costanzo (pictured), cover better than anyone. They haven’t give up a TD return this year and they consistently put the opposition deep in its own territory.

Against Manning, his effectiveness was remarkable, but he had to throw 40 times and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt counting his one sack for nine yards. Alex Smith, who was 19-of-30, averaged 7.1.

Again, the difference was Manning’s two interceptions and the punting of Andy Lee.

Pressure on Manning

The cliché is that it is much more difficult to beat a team a second time in one season. But no two games are alike; they take on their own dynamic.

If there is one change I foresee, it is 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio figuring out ways to get more pressure on Manning.

Cruz, Manningham and Nicks are too dangerous. Getting to Manning will help derail some of his passes, but then it also leaves defensive backs with less help. But that’s where the good tackling of the Niners comes through.

Remember, the two big plays by the Saints last week in the fourth quarter came on missed tackles by Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner. They can’t afford to miss those tackles this week, but that’s the risk the 49ers may have to take to try to get to Manning.

He was sacked in November just once and hit only three times. Both those numbers have to be tripled Sunday.

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The Niners were one of the best in the league in time of possession, holding onto the ball an average of 32 minutes a game.

However, the Giants had a decisive nine-minute advantage in November, and in the end the fourth-down deflection at the line of scrimmage by Justin Smith that ended Manning and the Giants comeback came because, well, Smith was just exhausted.

That’s why this game will be Harbaugh’s attempt to make it a real 49er game—run-oriented with the occasional big play on offense, and solid defense. He can’t afford to get in a shootout with Manning and put Alex Smith in front of that Giants' pass rush.

At the same time, the best defense of Manning is one where he sits on the sideline.

Look for a 20-16 game with the Niners going to the Super Bowl.