10 Bold Predictions for Daniel Bard in the Boston Red Sox Rotation

Making the transition from being a reliever to a starting pitcher is not an easy one.

That task will be upon Daniel Bard come the start of the 2012 season, barring any jaw-dropping moves or trades to alter the fate of the Boston Red Sox.

While pitchers have been transitioned successfully from a starter to closer (see: Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Dennis Eckersley, to name a few), there are far fewer who transition from reliever to starter.

Bard is certainly not a stranger to starting.  He did so in the minor leagues on 22 occasions.  True, it is not a supremely large body of work to go on.

Daniel Bard is going to be thrust into the role of (likely) being the fourth starter for a team with one of the most rabid fanbases with extremely high expectations.  Here are my predictions for how he will transition into his new role in 2012.

He Will Start 28 Games

Up till now, Bard has not started a single game in Major League Baseball. 

While having started 22 games over the course of three seasons in A-Ball, his role was blended with relief work as well as sharing the task of closer.

In his minor league career, Bard put up a 9-8 record with a 3.95 ERA in 79 total games played.  As I mentioned, he started 22 of said games, finishing 25 of them with 13 saves in 168.2 total innings of work.  

His ERA was not admirable at 1.405, but his 9.8 K/9 was.

His finest performance in the minors came in 2009 when he went 1-0 with a 1.12 ERA in 11 games and 16 innings for the Pawtucket Red Sox.  He put up six saves with 29 strikeouts and an eye-popping 0.688 WHIP.

It's time for Bard to Hulk up for the long haul of starting 28 games for the big club. 

His ERA Will Be Better Than You Think

A few weeks back, I wrote an article stating that I thought Bard would put up an ERA of 4.12.

I took the time to examine both who Bard will likely face in 2012 and his ERA against said teams both at home and away.

With that in mind, I believe he will post a 3.26 ERA.  While it is 0.38 percentage points higher than his career 2.88 ERA, it is 0.86 points lower than what I initially thought.

I think Bard will transition smoothly into the fourth spot in this lineup.

He Will Come Close to 200 Innings

While Bard pitched in 70-plus innings in both 2010 and 2011, naturally, going into the starting role, he will see a significant increase in the innings that he logs.

The Red Sox are in need of a horse, someone who can log 200 innings.

While he won't quite get to 200, I can see Bard putting in 197.1 innings of work in 2012.  I'll take that contribution from the fourth spot all day.

He'll Be a Strikeout Pitcher...Still

While Bard will come close to the 200-inning mark, he will finish the season having hit 200 strikeouts on the dot.

That translates into a K/9 ratio of 9.1, which is lower than his career number of 9.7 but is still quite respectable.

I see his K/9 dipping slightly in this first season as a starter while he transitions into the role.

He Won't Walk Many Batters

Bard's career WHIP is 1.056.

In the minors, it was 1.405.

He has shown that he can perform well at the Major League level and has gotten a handle on his control issues from his earlier pitching days.

I believe that trend will continue.  

While I think in his first couple of starts he may walk more batters than normal, he'll settle in to the rotation nicely and regain his composure.

His WHIP will drop 0.053 percentage points, and he'll post a 1.003 WHIP in 2012.

His Win/Loss Percentage Will Be 0.684

In the 28 games I expect him to start, Bard will receive decisions 68 percent of the time.

Those decisions will result in a 13-6 record with a 0.684 winning percentage.

In the numbers I've run for my personal projections, perhaps he should change his number to 68 for good luck!

He'll Post a Sub 3.00 ERA Against the Yankees in 2012

I expect Bard to face the Yankees three times in 2012 with a record of 2-1.

In those three games, he'll post a 2.48 ERA, keeping Yankee hitters at bay.

In those same three games, we will see some great pitchers duals between he and newly acquired Yankee Michael Pineda.

Pineda has a score to settle in Boston, considering his 14.54 ERA against the Sox in 2011.  He's a much better pitcher than that.

Toronto Will Give Him the Biggest Fits in the AL East

I expect Bard to face the Blue Jays four times in 2012.  

In those four games, he will post a combined 3.94 ERA in two home and two away games, walking away with a 1-2 record.

Historically, the Blue Jays have given him fits, and I don't see that coming to an end in 2012.

He Will Pitch Himself into Significant Trade Talks in July

While on his way to posting a 13-6, 3.26 ERA, 1.003 WHIP season where he'll log 197.1 innings and rack up 200 strikeouts, teams will be trying to pry the four man from the Red Sox at the trade deadline.

Some of those teams might include the San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals.

He'll Help the Brass Feel Better About Getting Rid of Lackey

Bard is under team control through 2016 at affordable dollars.

The front office will do away with the terrible signing that is John Lackey at some point by the time 2013 rolls around.

Red Sox Nation will hold a parade in downtown Boston that will rival the 2004 World Series Parade and the 2011 Boston Bruins Stanley Cup parade.

Immediately, the state will cut all taxes.

Crime rates will drop considerably.

Massachusetts will be declared the first entirely peaceful state in all of America.

Okay, I'm stretching...but a lot of people would love to see that happen.