Trade Predictions: Could Dwight Howard Land in Minnesota?
With all the speculation of where Dwight Howard will land this season, it's uncertain where he'll end up. So why not in the Twin Cities?
Before we dive into how he'll make his way to Minnesota, let's separate what the Magic and Dwight would each want in a trade and separate why the other top contenders in the Dwight Howard sweepstakes can't match what the Timberwolves can offer.
What does GM Otis Smith and the Magic want in return?
1. Young Talent. Dwight’s only 26 years old and a top five player in the league. His value as a franchise player is nearly impossible to duplicate in any trade. So trading for young, promising pieces and draft picks is a must for Orlando.
2. No long term deals. The last thing Otis Smith wants to do is trade Howard in return for long-term deals that will cripple the Magic’s rebuilding process. Deals that expire this season would be preferred so they can get started on rearranging this roster, but any trade that brings expensive, long term deals would be detrimental to Orlando’s future.
3. Established Talent. Trading Dwight for benchwarmers with expiring deals and draft picks may sound like a savvy business move to rebuild but in reality, it’s not.
It’s not in Orlando’s best interest to put the team in a position where their fans can see no light at the end of the tunnel following a Howard trade. Acquiring some established NBA talent, in addition to draft picks and cap flexibility, is important to keep Orlando fans interested and help them buy in to the direction this team is moving in the future.
What does Dwight want?
A.) Traded to a team where he would want to opt in on his contract next season, so he'll play the rest of this season and all of next season (a la Chris Paul with the Clippers).
B.) Traded to a team where he feels confident in signing a max four-year deal with.
Both of those options are contingent on the talent left on the team he is traded to and if that talent is competitive enough to compete for a championship for years to come.
In essence, Dwight is looking to play for a team that has an established superstar already and a supporting cast that can push his new team into title contention.
Who’s been rumored to land Dwight?
They’re been rumored the most in recent reports and you really can dispute why. Pairing Dwight with reigning MVP Derrick Rose is a dream come true in the basketball world. But a package built around Joakim Noah (5 years, $60.5 million) and Luol Deng (3 years, $40 million) ties Orlando up financially and neither of them are even close to the caliber of Howard.
Additionally, Chicago can’t send Orlando any real promising young assets outside of center Omer Asik.
LA Lakers
It’s hard to imagine that GM Mitch Kupchak will part with both Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum in a deal for Dwight. With that being said, Orlando would be more inclined to accept a package around Bynum because of his age and talent. But the Lakers really lack any further assets to pair with Bynum to pursue Orlando to make a trade.
Thus far, the rumors regarding GM Billy King offering a package built around Brook Lopez and multiple first round draft picks seems to be the most intriguing offer on the table because of the young talent it would bring and the cap flexibility for Orlando to rebuild.
But Lopez's injury to start the season and his poor production last year may have squashed New Jersey’s attempt to acquire Howard.
The preseason rumors that Golden State may have interest in acquiring Howard have returned in the past two weeks. Most likely, it would include a package around their prolific scoring guard Monta Ellis, rookie Klay Thompson, and second-year forward Ekpe Udoh.
Unfortunately for Golden State, a move to the Oakland area to play with the likes of the recently injury-plagued Stephen Curry and forward David Lee may not be enough incentive for Howard to make a long term contract extension with the team.
The rumors that the Knicks may be willing to part with their All-Star forward Amare Stoudemire and the recently-acquired Tyson Chandler for Howard is preposterous to think, despite the Knicks' early season woes.
The Knicks have unfortunately been hit with the injury bug early in the season, which does not help a team with many new pieces to put together after a shortened training camp. There is no reason to believe the Knicks will push the panic button this early in the season in a move to land Howard.
The Trade:
With the favorites above considered, there is a dark horse in the league that could be suited to make a move for Howard. That dark horse is the Minnesota Timberwolves. The once laughing stock of the league for the past three seasons has become one of the most interesting teams in the league this year. Here’s how the potential trade could break out:
Michael Beasley – 2 years, $14.4 million
Derrick Williams – 5 years, $30.2 million (team options in ’14, ’15)
Luke Ridnour – 3 years, $12 million
Anthony Randolph – 2 years, $7 million (qualifying offer in ’12)
Martell Webster – 2 years $10.9 million
Nikola Pekovic – 2 years, $9 million
2012 First Round draft pick, lottery protected (via Utah from Al Jefferson trade in 2010)
2013 First Round draft pick
For
Dwight Howard – 2 years, $37 million (player option in 2012)
Hedo Turkoglu – 3 years, $34 million (player option in 2013)
Von Wafer – 3 years, $3.2 million (team option in 2012 & 2013)
What’s Orlando getting?
Second overall draft pick Derrick Williams and the two additional draft picks are the true prized possessions in exchange for Howard.
Although most of the players in this deal have contracts that don’t expire this season, the majority are two-year deals that will come off Orlando’s books in 2013, when the Magic will have significant cap relief to pursue players in free agency.
Beasley could be a piece to Orlando’s rebuilding puzzle, as he has proven to be one of the better one-on-one scorers in only his fourth season. Randolph and Pekovic’s age and size provide the Magic with some much-needed depth in the front court, which is currently occupied by the undersized Glen Davis and the three point shooting Ryan Anderson.
What’s Minnesota getting?
This truly is one of those “high risk, high reward" deals for GM David Kahn. The backlash to a deal like this for Minnesota , besides the fear of not convincing Dwight to sign long term, is losing their potential young star in Derrick Williams and draft picks while taking back the three year contract of the overpaid Hedo Turkoglu.
All things considered, the move is beneficial two fold. The move nets the best center in the league and pairs him with the league’s best rebounder in Kevin Love. From the business side of the deal, a move like this would guarantee Love to sign a max contract extension with the Wolves IF Dwight was willing to opt in to his contract next season or, even better, sign a four year max deal himself. From the basketball side of the deal, it’s a no brainer. Love’s ability to spread the floor at his position will open up the paint for Howard.
Additionally, pairing the leagues two best rebounders in the same front court puts them at a huge advantage against most of the league. Factor in their stud rookie point guard Ricky Rubio, and now Minnesota has put themselves as a serious threat in the Western Conference for years to come.
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