NFL Playoffs: Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants and 5 Hot-to-Trot Tips

After taking down Rex Ryan and Rob Ryan in the past two weeks, the New York Giants are trying to make it three Ryans in a row, as they take on the Matt Ryan-led Atlanta Falcons. And the high-flying Giants, at home, do pose a real test for the Falcons, and if you don't believe that, just ask the Dallas Cowboys, who were simply blown away early last week.

Whether you're a diehard fan for either side or just an interested fan, here's your five hot-to-trot tips for the big game this weekend. Because, when it all comes down to it, whatever the result is, we're all going to feel better if our pockets are a little heavier.

Head-to-Head

Statistically this game leans towards a Falcons victory. I know it's in New York and I know how well they've been playing, but statistically speaking, Atlanta is far superior.

Offensively they've thrown for the same amount of touchdowns as the Giants, but with less interceptions for the year. They've got a dominant running game and clearly beat out New York, who rank last in the league for rushing. Not only that, the Falcons are averaging more points per game than the Giants, at 25.1 points per game.

And defensively, they're stronger again, allowing only 21.4 points per game compared to the Giants' 24.6 points. Less passing yards, less touchdowns allowed and a far tighter run defense, all point towards a Falcons victory.

Statistically.

Which we all know, down the stretch, with two minutes on the clock, means nothing. And this season, Eli Manning has been clutch.

Whilst his team struggles to run the football, Eli Manning has been a dominant quarterback this year and has silenced his critics in taking his team to the playoffs. However, a loss here and all those critics will come back with vengeance.

And it's not just Manning that had a brilliant 2011; Matt Ryan had one of his strongest years, even if that didn't convert into large numbers such as passing yards. He has steered the offense to a wild-card position, and in a division with the New Orleans Saints, that is no mean feat.

So I'm leaning with the Falcons. I understand the great pass rush of the Giants, but I am worried about their inability to score points against a tight defense like Atlanta. Manning is playing well, but Ryan is standing out more and more and would gain huge momentum if he could take a win in this one.

Call me crazy, and I may very well be, but I'm with the Falcons to just scrape home in this one and end Manning's chances at another Super Bowl ring.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons to win

Margin and Spread

Whilst I do believe the Falcons will win, I'd feel even more comfortable taking them with the spread. The inability the Giants have to run the football means Eli is under more pressure than usual, and against a tough defense, he may just crumble.

Dallas didn't get enough pressure on Eli like they did the first time the two sides played, and if the Giants defense can't pressure Ryan, they too will struggle.

Michael Turner could have a big game against the Giants run defense, which has given up 121.2 yards per game for 15 touchdowns. If the men from New York can't stop the Falcons on second and third down with short yardage, they will give Ryan too many chances to throw strikes.

I don't think this game will be pretty, which is why I'm taking Ryan over Manning.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons with the spread (or Falcons by 1-6 points)

Over/Under Total Points

As I mentioned, I do think that defense will dominate in this game, despite the presence of two quality quarterbacks. With both sides allowing less than 25 points per game and neither side averaging more points than that offensively, points may be at a premium.

New York's pass coverage should be strong enough to hold its own for the most part against Matt Ryan, but it's the complete Falcons offense that they may struggle to contain.

As they watch the Falcons move the chain behind Turner and short-slanting receivers, Manning and the offense need to get their game going in a similar way. Despite leading the league with throws of 40-plus yards, and Atlanta struggling to prevent the deep throw this season, the Giants must play conservative football to stay in this game.

And that's where I like the under.

After both the Giants and the Falcons were involved in high-scoring games in recent weeks, the line may be somewhere around the high 40, low 50-point mark. And if you can find that, take the under.

I think back to when the Giants played another offensive powerhouse in the New England Patriots, and neither side had scored by halftime. New York ended up winning the game as they ground out Brady.

If the Falcons are going to win, they need to shut down Manning and grind out a win. If the Giants are to win, they need to do the same thing, so a low-scoring affair may be on our hands.

Prediction: Under total points for the game (take anything down to around 47)

First Scoring Play of the Game

After watching the Giants explode out of the blocks last week and wipe Dallas out of the game early, expect them to attempt a similar process at home this week against the Falcons.

Something in me says that Manning won't be able to convert the whole way down the field, though. I think it's the combination of a poor run game against a strong run defense, and the fact the Falcons have are only allowing 1.5 touchdowns per game speaking to me there, and I don't think there'll be an early touchdown.

Still expect New York to take the ball early and drive, and get early points on the board.

First scoring play of the game: New York Giants field goal

 

First Touchdown Scorer of the Game

Whilst Manning has been connecting brilliantly with both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz in recent weeks, as I mentioned before, I can't see him throwing the first strike.

And with 14 rushing touchdowns for the year and over 110 rushing yards per game, the Falcons will be happy to run their way down the field, especially against the Giants run defense and the 15 touchdowns and 121.2 yards per game they're allowing.

Whilst Ryan does love to find the likes of Julio Jones early, expect Michael Turner to have a huge impact for the Falcons in this one, and he could be good value for an early score.

Prediction: Michael Turner to score the first touchdown of the game

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