New York Jets: Odds on Who Will Start at QB Next Season

I think it is safe to say that the blood of Mark Sanchez is officially in the water. Next to the ouster of their doomed offensive coordinator, there may be no bigger item on the wish list of Jets faithful than a brand-spanking-new quarterback.

The obstacle facing the New York Jets going into this offseason is not a lack of available quarterbacks, as there will be over 20 NFL caliber signal-callers in the open market between the upcoming draft and free-agency period.

The issue for the Jets will be the quality of the talent pool available to them. Many of the superstar quarterbacks that are technically available for poaching will more than likely be retained by their current teams. Meanwhile, many of the quarterbacks who will comprise the incoming draft class have extensive questions about their potential ability to lead a team like the New York Jets.

Here are just a few who may be called upon to do so next season.

Greg McElroy

Any Jets fan that caught any of Gang Green’s preseason exhibitions is aware that there is something to this kid. Anyone who has followed Alabama Crimson Tide football is familiar with the ability Greg McElroy has to bring home championships.

The leader of the undefeated 2009 national champions, McElroy earned SEC most valuable player in the conference championship game and continued on to win the crystal football in his junior year at Alabama, his first as a starter.

McElroy’s two-year stint as starting quarterback for the Crimson Tide resulted in a 24-3 combined record. As a side note, McElroy also graduated from college with a 3.85 GPA and was a Rhodes Scholarship finalist before being inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame as a scholar athlete.

He is smart, accurate with the football (completing 65 percent of his passes for over 5,500 yards in his last two college seasons), and has proven that he knows how to win.

McElroy is also already a Jet, albeit a not-so-content one at the moment; he is already property of the team, making him a viable option under center.

We can only wonder what could have been if McElroy was on the active roster this season. Perhaps next season Jets management may have to look no further than in their own locker room for their next quarterback.

Odds: Very good

Mark Sanchez

Incumbents always deserve consideration and with Mark Sanchez and the Jets, this is no exception. Whether or not anyone chooses to remember it these days, No. 6 was at the helm of a Jets team that went to the last two AFC championships.

The fact that remains now and may always remain when discussing the talents of the former USC Trojan is that at some point, he knew what he was doing. Regardless of the support structure around a quarterback, all the help in the world will be for naught if there is incompetence under center.

The odds that Sanchez returns to the Jets, at the very least for their return to Cortland, NY in seven months time, is as close to perfect as you can get.

A movement to draft a young upstart or a deal in free agency for a veteran will not prohibit Sanchez from an opportunity to prove that he deserves to start for Gang Green. This spot apparently will be his to lose as long as the current establishment is in place.

Who knows what could come of competition? With chippy young McElroy on injured reserve this season, Sanchez’s only competition was reluctant 41-year-old Mark Brunell. Next season will most likely be a different story.

Odds: Unfortunately, probably the best of all

Peyton Manning

The rumors from the New York Daily News surrounding a potential change in Peyton Manning's jersey colors from blue to green has hovered over the Jets organization for the last month. With every interception, every poor decision and every missed opportunity, it seemed that Mark Sanchez inched closer to being supplanted by arguably the greatest quarterback of this era next season.

There are so many variables that go into Manning potentially becoming a Jet next season, it is mind-numbing. Between his physical ailments (which are aplenty), the dissolution of the Indianapolis front office (which is severe) and the implosion of the Jets organization (which is profound), Manning moving to New York will take a tremendous sequence of good fortune (not luck).

The underlying question throughout the entire offseason interaction between the Jets and Manning will remain his health. Will the injury sustained by Manning as a result of improper post-operative care signal the end of one of the greatest careers in NFL history?

Will his neck fusion surgery ever allow Manning to grasp and throw a football again, much less deliver passes of NFL quality? There are far too many questions to answer at this point.

Odds: I would love to meet the bookie who could put a line on this

Matt Flynn

One week ago, Matt Flynn would not have appeared on anyone’s free-agent radar. If they say he did, they either make their living in the NFL or they are flat-out lying to you.

One very impressive performance against the playoff-bound Detroit Lions and suddenly Aaron Rodgers’ backup is the talk of the town. Can Flynn, another former national championship college quarterback, become yet another Packer quarterback to find his own success once freed from the bondage of supporting a veteran Green Bay mainstay?

Or will Flynn become the 2012 version of Kevin Kolb, a beneficiary of a few tempting glimpses of brilliance in relatively meaningless game conditions?

With all we have seen in Flynn over his two years as a reliever, there is good reason to believe there is something special in the former LSU Tiger. He has a big, accurate throwing arm that pairs well with a pension for aggressive decisions along his pass progression. Flynn likes the long ball, as evidenced in his remarkable 480-yard, six-touchdown performance last week against the Lions.

Flynn will undoubtedly slip back to a reserve role with the Packers for the next month, but he has done himself a world of good in marketing himself as a viable free agent.

Odds: At the right price, the Jets could be the front-runner to snag this free-agent diamond in the rough

Alex Smith

In order to understand the likelihood of Alex Smith hitting the open market and potentially vacating his position as the starting quarterback of the 49ers, you would have to climb inside the head of Jim Harbaugh himself.

The only way that I can foresee Harbaugh and the San Francisco brain trust letting their signal-caller go amidst the greatest organizational turnaround in NFL history is if Harbaugh can convince his bosses (and himself) that his football theory allows for completely interchangeable parts.

If Smith is deemed expendable and let loose by his current team, it will also cast a doubt on his abilities as anything more than a system quarterback. Should the 49ers replace Smith next season with a comparably successful quarterback under center, the writing would be clearly on the wall for Smith.

His 2011 campaign would undoubtedly be exposed for the apparition it could end up being and because of this, I don’t think the Jets' interest in Smith is that high to begin with.

Odds: Low

Donovan McNabb

Of all the possible scenarios, Jets fans are hoping to avoid a repeat of the devastation caused by other shells of past quarterback glory like Neil O’Donnell, Boomer Esiason, Brett Favre, Frank Reich or any other aging quarterback with more costly baggage than Southwest Airlines.

Donovan McNabb's time has run out in the NFL, and I do believe that it is apparent to everyone now. He is better-suited as an on-field mentor to up-and-coming quarterbacks like Cam Newton rather than taking snaps as a starter.

Odds: Slim to none

Vince Young

There is very little upside to approaching Vince Young in free agency that could not already be found in Sanchez. Young’s decision-making difficulties and wildly inaccurate play are comparable to the Jets' current offensive captain and would not be a logical target for acquisition.

In addition to not providing any spark from a talent perspective, the Jets are clearly in need of a massive character overhaul. The injection of another potentially volatile personality in the Jets locker room is just about the last thing Rex Ryan needs at this point in his coaching career.

Odds: Just about none

David Garrard

Garrard may be the one question mark in this entire roster of potential New York quarterbacks. The development as a pocket passer he exhibited in Jacksonville before his untimely end there could lead you to believe that he is an untapped resource.

Another perspective, and a more likely one at that, surrounds his final days in Jacksonville. In order to be cut from one of the worst teams in the NFL because of poor play, mathematics do not suggest he was playing too well.

Garrard has also gone on record to ESPN as saying he would only consider a return to the pro ranks if the situation suited him. I would imagine a contract worthy of a New York franchise and an opportunity to play for one of the largest-market teams in the league would suit many quarterbacks whose only alternative is unemployment.

The odds of Garrard becoming a Jet next season are dependent on the talent available when the Jets turn to make move comes. If the pickings are slim, Garrard could become a viable commodity as a potential suitor for the quarterback position. He is not a prime target, but could be a respectable target when the dust settles.

Odds: Varied, an interesting potential Plan B

Drew Brees

There is no chance I am wasting my typing energy on this option. Unless New Orleans goes on to win this year’s Super Bowl and parties so hard afterwards in the French Quarter that they suffer the most diabolical month-long hangover ever and forget to sign the contract, Drew Brees will be a Saint for life.

Odds: Are there any odds less than zero?

Robert Griffin III

Unless the Jets do some rather fancy footwork in the days and minutes leading up the 2012 NFL draft, the likelihood that they will be able to once again leap far enough up the draft board to snatch Robert Griffin III ahead of other potential suitors, is unrealistic at best.

RG3 is not only a hot commodity right now as a potentially great playmaker, but with the recent success of other freestyle quarterbacks like Cam Newton, he will be a phenomenal box-office draw for desperate small-market teams.

Griffin’s merchandise will fly off the racks inside the pro shop of whichever club lands him in this year’s draft and represents millions of dollars for starving franchises like Cleveland and St. Louis that clamor for media attention. Regardless of his potential as a winning NFL quarterback, the potential business and economic value RG3 will bring would cost the Jets a king’s ransom.

Odds: Pretty low unless his combine/pro day workouts are a disaster

Kellen Moore

I am of the small minority that believes that Kellen Moore might be the dark horse in the running to become the next quarterback of the New York Jets.

The 22-year-old four-year starter for the Boise State Broncos has established a portfolio that rivals most current pro quarterbacks and has led his small university to college football prominence.

A two-time All-American and 2010 Heisman Trophy finalist, Moore has done almost nothing but win while running the Boise State offense, compiling an astonishing 50-3 record in four years as a starter.

Moore has thrown for over 14,667 yards since 2008, including 142 touchdowns to only 28 interceptions and a four-season 169.0 quarterback rating average.

Draft analysts see Moore still being available as late as the late third and fourth round, making him a tremendously viable option at quarterback for the Jets that would not require them to dedicate their first pick to afford him.

The knock on Moore may be his smaller physical stature (Moore stands only 6'0" tall and weighs under 200 pounds) but I would dare to bet good money that if you asked any Jets fan if they would exchange the two inches that Mark Sanchez has over Moore for Moore’s quick release, phenomenal decision-making and tendency to win every time he plays the game of football, they would take that swap.

With the right strategy, a bit of patience and a little hint of luck, the Jets could walk away from the 2012 draft with their next great quarterback and a potentially marquee No. 1 pick.

Odds: My pick for the next big thing