What AFC's Top Contenders Need to Do in 2024 NFL Offseason to Catch the KC Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are headed to the Super Bowl. Again. Their appearance in Super Bowl LVIII will mark the Chiefs' fourth Super Bowl appearance in six seasons with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback.
The Baltimore Ravens seemingly did everything needed to catch Kansas City. They had the league's top scoring defense, they revamped the offense under Todd Monken, they had the (likely) league MVP in Lamar Jackson and they claimed the AFC's No. 1 seed. Yet, the visiting Chiefs still outlasted the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.
It hasn't always been pretty this season. However, the combination of Mahomes, head coach Andy Reid, tight end Travis Kelce and one of the league's best defenses has kept the Chiefs atop the proverbial AFC mountain.
The question now is this: What can the AFC's top contenders do to accomplish what Baltimore could not? While there isn't an easy answer, we can pinpoint one offseason goal for each contender with that very question in mind.
For this list, we'll examine the six AFC teams, aside from Kansas City, with the best current odds to win next year's Super Bowl, according to DraftKings.
Baltimore Ravens: Find More Offensive Playmakers
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2025 Super Bowl Odds: +900 (bet $100 to win $900)
The Chiefs are the AFC betting favorites at +750, but the Ravens aren't far behind. Baltimore made it to the AFC title game, and really, the Ravens beat themselves as much as the Chiefs claimed victory.
A series of avoidable penalties (eight for 95 yards) and a trio of turnovers cost the Ravens in a huge way. Yet, the Ravens remained in the game because their defense held the Chiefs scoreless in the second half. The offense simply couldn't do its part.
Against Kansas City's second-ranked defense, Baltimore's lack of elite playmakers other than Jackson loomed large.
Rookie wideout Zay Flowers finished with 115 yards and a touchdown on five receptions. Tight end Mark Andrews—who made his way back from a mid-November ankle injury—was held in check, and Baltimore really had no one else on whom to count.
The Ravens lost running back J.K. Dobbins to a torn Achilles at the start of the season, and while the tandem of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill was serviceable, it wasn't great. Those two combined for just six carries on Sunday, and no other Ravens receiver had more than 39 receiving yards.
Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor and an aging Odell Beckham Jr. were good enough in the regular season but not up to the challenge of going play-for-play against Mahomes and the Chiefs. This offseason, the Ravens must find a top-tier running back and at least one other pass-catcher who can regularly generate separation.
Baltimore is projected to have just $5.6 million in cap space, so going after impending free agents like Tee Higgins and Saquon Barkley would be difficult. However, the Ravens can dive into a talented rookie class and target prospects like LSU receiver Brian Thomas Jr. and Florida State running back Trey Benson.
The Ravens have the defense and the quarterback. They just need to be able to put more points on the board against teams like the Chiefs in a must-win game.
Buffalo Bills: Improve the Wide Receiver Corps
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2025 Super Bowl Odds: +950
The Buffalo Bills gave the Chiefs everything they could handle in the divisional round, and they're in a situation very similar to Baltimore's.
Despite having several key defenders out—including Matt Milano and No. 1 cornerback Tre'Davious White—the Bills held Kansas City to 27 points. Buffalo nearly kept pace and had a chance to tie the game late, but Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard field goal.
Quarterback Josh Allen did go throw-for-throw with Mahomes, but he struggled to find dependable playmakers aside from tight end Dalton Kincaid and running back James Cook. No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs (3 catches, 21 yards) was largely ineffective and had a key drop in the fourth quarter.
It may be time for Buffalo to recognize that Diggs might not be a No. 1 receiver anymore, though the team won't publicly admit that.
"I know there's various reasons or questions on this, there's production and all that, but I still see Stef as a No. 1 receiver," general manager Brandon Beane told reporters last week.
During Buffalo's final five games of the regular season, though, Diggs had games of 24, 48, 29, 26 and 87 yards. If he is no longer an elite receiver, the Bills need to find one. They also need a dependable second option, as the depth behind Diggs was lacking all year.
Diggs was the only wideout to top 750 receiving yards in the regular season.
Buffalo is projected to be $51.1 million over the cap, so acquiring a wideout in free agency or via trade is unlikely. Receivers like Thomas and Oregon's Troy Franklin should be on the Bills' radar early in the draft.
Allen is as dynamic as any QB in the NFL, and Buffalo's defense should be fine if it can stay healthy. However, the Bills need more offensive potency if they're going to overcome Kansas City and Steve Spagnuolo's defense in the postseason.
Cincinnati Bengals: Reload/Rebuild Joe Burrow's Supporting Cast
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2025 Super Bowl Odds: +1200
The Cincinnati Bengals didn't make the postseason, but they're among the AFC favorites for next season. That shouldn't come as a surprise, as quarterback Joe Burrow is expected to be healthy to start the season.
Burrow and the Bengals have already shown that they can hang with Kansas City in the postseason. Cincinnati knocked off the Chiefs two years ago in the AFC title game and only lost by a field goal in last year's title game.
However, Burrow opened the year with a calf injury and wasn't himself. The Bengals still recovered from a 1-3 start and moved to 5-4 before losing Burrow for the season to a wrist injury.
Keeping Burrow healthy will be paramount in 2024, but Cincinnati will have to reload and improve Burrow's supporting cast.
The Bengals have already lost offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, who left to become head coach of the Tennessee Titans. They're also scheduled to lose receivers Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins in free agency.
With $61.4 million in projected cap space, the Bengals can afford to re-sign both Higgins and Boyd if they so choose. They have already promoted quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher to replace Callahan. Even if the Bengals keep most of the band together, though, there's room for improvement.
Despite shelling out for offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. last offseason, the Bengals line left plenty to be desired. Burrow was sacked 24 times in 10 games. That's an average of 2.4 sacks per game after he suffered 2.6 sacks per game in 2022 without Brown.
Cincinnati could also use a more explosive back than Joe Mixon, who hasn't averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry since 2021. To beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, the Bengals must protect Burrow, maintain offensive balance and generate big plays.
Draft prospects like Benson, West Virginia interior lineman Zach Frazier and Georgia offensive tackle Amarius Mims should get heavy consideration from Cincinnati in April.
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Houston Texans: Improve the Secondary
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2025 Super Bowl Odds: +2000
The Houston Texans being among the betting favorites would have been a surprise a few months ago. It's not a surprise now.
Rookie C.J. Stroud was one of the league's best signal-callers by midseason, and Houston forged an identity as a contender under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans. The Texans won the AFC South and advanced to the divisional round a year after winning just three games.
Stroud could use better pass protection—he was sacked 38 times in 15 games—but Houston's biggest issue was a lackluster secondary. The Ravens ran for 229 yards against the Texans two weeks ago, but the number is somewhat misleading.
Jackson rushed for 100 of those yards, and Baltimore got a big early lead and was able to lean on its ground game to close things out. During the regular season, the Texans ranked second in yards per rush allowed but only 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
Aside from budding star corner Derek Stingley Jr. and safety Jimmie Ward, Houston lacked truly dependable defensive backs.
To hang with quarterbacks like Jackson, Allen and Mahomes, Houston must do a better job of corralling the pass. Fortunately, the Texans are projected to have a whopping $66 million in cap space available.
This means that the Texans can target top free agents like cornerback Jaylon Johnson, cornerback L'Jarius Sneed and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. before turning their attention to the draft.
In the draft, Houston should consider prospects like Alabama corner Kool-Aid McKinstry and Miami safety Kamren Kinchens early.
Stroud is a terrific quarterback, and he did plenty with offensive playmakers like Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Devin Singletary—an impending free agent. Ryans should be the front-runner for Coach of the Year. The Texans are only a few pieces away from being a Super Bowl-caliber team, and most of those holes reside in the defensive backfield.
New York Jets: Rebuild the Offensive Line
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2025 Super Bowl Odds: +2200
The New York Jets only won seven games in 2023, but they're expected to be among the AFC's top contenders next year for one very simple reason: Prized trade acquisition Aaron Rodgers is expected to be healthy.
Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles just four snaps into the season, and the Jets never recovered. They never found an answer at quarterback, and a talented defense (third in yards allowed) was too often asked to carry the team.
Banking on Rodgers to save the Jets in 2024 is a dicey proposition, though, because of New York's offensive line. The unit gave up 64 sacks during the regular season and struggled to consistently open holes in the running game (14th in yards per carry).
The Jets' line issues were compounded by the fact that they lacked reliable playmakers behind Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
Rodgers is a mobile quarterback with a quick release, but he's also 40 years old and coming off a major injury. Even if had stayed healthy, though, he would have had issues behind this offensive line.
The problem is that there isn't an easy fix here. The Jets could use upgrades at both tackle spots. Tackle Mekhi Becton and center Connor McGovern are both scheduled to be free agents, and New York is projected to have just $7.9 million in cap space available.
The Jets should be interested in free-agent linemen like Tyron Smith, Trent Brown, Kevin Dotson and David Bakhtiari—if Bakhtiari is released by the Green Bay Packers. However, their cap situation will make it difficult to throw money at the offensive line.
It would behoove the Jets to be aggressive and chase a top line prospect like Penn State's Olumuyiwa Fashanu or Notre Dame's Joe Alt in the first round of the draft.
New York's defense is solid, and Rodgers should boost the QB position. If the Jets even hope to meet Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason, though, they have to put a better blocking unit up front.
Los Angeles Chargers: Fix the Defense and Ground Game
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2025 Super Bowl Odds: +2500
The Los Angeles Chargers are expected to be a Super Bowl contender because they have a standout quarterback in Justin Herbert and recently added a proven head coach in Jim Harbaugh.
L.A.'s new coach is eager to make the Chargers a contender.
"There's no Lombardi in college football," Harbaugh said, per ESPN's Kris Rhim. "I've got so many sands left in the hourglass, and I want to take a crack at that."
Harbaugh, who just won a national championship, has coached in a Super Bowl and has a track record of developing quarterbacks, represents a home-run hire for L.A. However, he's going to have a lot of work ahead of him.
The most difficult piece to find is in place, because the Chargers have Herbert. L.A. also has some solid pieces along the offensive line and a pair of terrific receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams—though Williams is coming off a torn ACL.
What the Chargers have lacked is a consistent running game and a functional defense. Both problems played roles in L.A.'s 2022 playoff collapse against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and both were issues this past season.
The Chargers ranked 27th in yards per carry in 2023, and they could lose No. 1 RB Austin Ekeler in free agency. Los Angeles also ranked 30th in pass defense, 28th in total defense and 24th in points allowed.
The Chargers should be better in 2024, but they're not challenging the Chiefs in the AFC West without fixing these issues.
Harbaugh found fast success in his last NFL stint—he reached the NFC title game in his first season as the San Francisco 49ers' coach. A strong ground game and stout defense were hallmarks of both his 49ers and recent Michigan teams. Presumably, he'll coach up these areas of need.
Yet, the Chargers still need the personnel to succeed, specifically in the backfield and the secondary. Facing a projected $44 million cap deficit, they may have to find them in the draft.
Harbaugh may not deliver an instant turnaround in Los Angeles, but prospects like Benson, McKinstry and Kinchens would aid the process considerably.
*Cap information via Spotrac.
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