Chicago Bulls: Why They Are on the Same Level as the Miami Heat

To listen to the Miami Heat fans and the mainstream media (but I repeat myself) the Heat are not just the favorites to win the title, they are in a league of their own. They are justifiably the favorites to win the title, but the Bulls are being overlooked as legitimate challengers to the throne.

For starters, they weren't that far apart last year. The teams faced one another eight times. Both teams won four. While the Heat won the finals series with a convincing 4-1 edge, all but two of the games were heavily contested, and both teams had one convincing win. 

In fact, two of the four Heat wins could have gone differently if the final shot of regulation had gone differently. This is not an opinion. It is not an excuse. It is a fact. 

The Bulls were also affected with injuries to three of their four best players. Derrick Rose, the league MVP was playing with an ankle sprain. Carlos Boozer had turf toe. Joakim Noah had a sprained ankle. Again these are neither excuses nor opinions but facts. 

They aren't excuses because I'm not using them to dismiss the Heat winning the series. I'm pointing them out to show that the Heat and Bulls were on the same level of play last year. There was not a great gulf of difference between the two teams.

Since they were on the same level of play, in order for the Heat to be on a different level than the Bulls this year would require that they have improved more than the Bulls during the offseason. That's a hard statement to prove. 

Based on early season performances, in fact, the opposite can be argued. Last year the Bulls were only the 12th best team in offensive rating. This year they are second with an average of 110.9 points scored per 100 possessions.

In fact, that's better than the Heat's offensive rating of 109. Now granted, that's not likely to hold up. It does establish, though, that the Bulls offense this year is better than the Bulls offense last year. 

This is important because it's not the Bulls defense that faltered in the Conference Finals last year. In fact they only gave up 89.4 points per game against the Heat in the postseason. Where they struggled was their offense. 

Particularly, the Bulls struggled because they had become too much of a one man show. Derrick Rose was consistently trapped and between the partially torn ligament in his ankle and the best wing defender in the world guarding him, he was essentially shut down late in games. 

Setting aside the injury issue, the question becomes, what have the Bulls done to address the trap? Do they have enough to prevent the Heat from exploiting the same strategy this year that they did last year?

There are a number of things they've done, but most are invisible in the sense of roster movements. The big roster move they made can't be ignored though. They signed Richard Hamilton. While Hamilton is not the Hamilton of 2004 when the Pistons won the title, the significance of the addition can't be understated. 

Last year the Bulls were 21st in efficiency differential, with a -2.0. They were dead last in scoring form the position with just 13.6 points per game. This year they aren't exactly owning the NBA from the position, but they are at least not getting owned. 

They've increased their average scoring from the position by 9.2 points, a 68 percent increase form last year. 

The improvement isn't all because of Hamilton though. Backup Ronnie Brewer, already one of the best defensive players on the team, significantly improved his offensive game during the offseason. Brewer has seen his per 36 minute scoring production jump from 10.2 points to 16.4. 

His PER has gone from 13.2 to 20.8. That's a huge improvement. It has come in large part due to Brewer not just improving his outside shot, but essentially adding one. In fact, on a per minute basis, Brewer is the fifth most efficient shooting guard in the NBA so far this year.

It's not just the shooting guard position, though, that has improved. In fact, everyone in the backcourt and small forward position has elevated their game. The following table shows the rotation players and their difference in PER from last year to this year. 

Allow me the PER disclaimer. Yes, I know that PER doesn't mean everything. At the same time it does have the advantage of giving you a general, minute adjusted snapshot of evaluating players. Particularly when you're comparing a player from one year to the next, it's helpful as whatever problems there are are consistent. While comparing one player to another that might be an issue, but when comparing a player's improvement it's not.  

Player	2010	2011	Difference
Derrick Rose	23.5	23.7	+0.2
Ronnie Brewer	13.8	20.8	+7.0
Luol Deng	15.5	17.8	+2.3
C.J. Watson	12.8	17.4	+4.6
Kyle Korver	13.0	14.3	+1.3

The Bulls have improved their starter and everyone in the backcourt or who handles the ball has improved his game. The uptick in offensive efficiency is not a mere anomaly. The fact is that they've effectively addressed that "trap challenge." 

While they have improved their backcourt, their young frontcourt (with the exception of Carlos Boozer), merely through maturing will get better. Joakim Noah's offense seems to have improved already. Omer Asik has added weigh. Boozer lost it. Taj Gibson is showing off a better post move. 

Overall, the Bulls are greatly improved this year at scoring in the post. Last year according to their Synergy stats, they were 22nd in the NBA at scoring on post-up plays, with just .81 points per play. This year they've move up to sixth, averaging .92 points per play. 

With their offensive improvement in both the backcourt and the frontcourt, it's little wonder the Bulls are an improved offensive team.

What is important to note here is that while they added no offensive superstar in the mold of Dwyane Wade or LeBron James, they've established a well balanced offense with enough players that can score should teams try the same double-team trap that Miami used so effectively last year in the finals. 

And lest the conclusion be prematurely drawn that this is all an issue of this being early in the season, bear in mind that the league wide trend has been to favor the defense. In fact, there have been five fewer points scored per 100 possessions this year than last. 

Lest it be argued that the Bulls have been getting by with an easy schedule, they've played the 10th hardest schedule with at least three of the five teams they've played—the Lakers, the Clippers and the Grizzlies, likely playoff teams. 

They've improved to a top-five offense without losing anything on the defensive end. In fact, they're giving up 1.5 fewer points per 100 possessions. 

In short, last year's league-best defense is even better, but they also now boast a top-five offense with a much more balanced approach than last year. 

Miami has the league-best offense and have a top-five defense. They've added players to improve on both ends of the court. Norris Cole, the rookie point guard (am I the only one who thinks it's ironic he's from Cleveland State?) is providing a much needed scoring lift to the bench. Shane Battier adds defensive strength to the wing position. 

Chris Bosh has gotten stronger. LeBron James has added a post game, and has been destroying the competition so far this season with an outright insane PER of 37.5.

Yes, the Heat have improved too. However it's hard to argue that they have improved more. Statistically, their offense is actually down 2.7 points per 100 possessions. Their defense looks better, giving up 6.6 points per 100 possessions fewer, but bear in mind that comes against the eighth easiest schedule, and that the offenses they've faced are 12th, 21st, 24th, 27th and 27th. 

Last year they were fairly evenly matched teams, and this year the Bulls have improved at least as much as the Heat. It's hard to present an argument that the Heat have somehow separated themselves from the Bulls. In fact, the Bulls, having played a tougher schedule, have outscored their opponents by 12.3 points per 100 possessions compared to the Heat's 12.1. 

Both numbers are extremely impressive. While it's not "proof" that "Chicago is better" it's certainly enough to prove the teams are on the same level.