Copa America 2011 Knockout Stage Predictions

The knockout stages of the Copa America are underway, and after a rather disappointing start to the group stage, things are sure to heat up.

With many teams trying to bounce back after disappointing starts (Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay) and many teams trying to prove themselves (Peru, Venezuela and Colombia), there is sure to be some good football to be played. Things get started with the quarterfinal (Venezuela vs Chile, Peru vs Colombia, Argentina vs Uruguay, and Brazil vs Paraguay), and then go to the semifinals and final. I will be trying to predict the winner of every match-up in the tournament as well as the eventual champion. 

Colombia vs. Peru

Colombia has emerged as one of the surprise teams of the tournament, beating Costa Rica and Bolivia and managing a draw against hosts Argentina, while Peru have had some positive results themselves, drawing against World Cup semifinalists Uruguay and beating Mexico before falling to arch rivals Chile. Despite these great results, neither team has really excelled offensively, with Colombia only scoring three goals in three matches and Peru only scoring two.

Another similarity between the two teams is the great performances from their strikers Radamel Falcao (Colombia) and Juan Paolo Guerrero (Peru), both of which have scored two goals apiece and have put up some man of the match performances. Out of the two teams, Peru has had the tougher road to the knockout stages, having to take on two South American giants in Chile and Uruguay while having to deal with injuries to Jefferson Farfan, Claudio Pizzaro and Juan Vargas. Colombia have had to play against lowly Bolivia and Costa Rica, and a struggling Argentina.

This match will be no different from both teams previous matches in that there won't be many goals scored. The Peruvian defense (Vilchez, Acasiete, Carmona and Rodriguez) will be enough to stop Colombia's main attacking threat, Falcao.

On the other half of the pitch, the pace of Advincula and Guerrero will catch the Colombian defense by surprise, and with Vargas feeding several good balls, the Peruvians will create enough chances to defeat Colombia.

 Final Score: Peru 2-0 Colombia

Argentina vs. Uruguay

Out of all the matches in the quarterfinals, this one is by far the most intriguing. Uruguay are confident after coming away with a fourth place finish in the world cup, while Argentina are trying to avenge an early quarterfinal exit, so both teams are sure to bring their A game.

Well, so far, it hasn't quite worked out that way, as Argentina have only managed draws against Bolivia and Colombia, and could only win against a sub-22 Costa Rica, while Uruguay drew against Peru and Chile, and could only win against a sub-22 Mexico. Each team needed to win their last match of the group stage against younger opposition to get themselves going to both sides will be trying to prove a point in this match.

Along with Brazil, these are probably the best teams that South America have to offer. There will certainly be no lack of star power, as Uruguay showcase Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani, while Argentina showcase Sergio Aguero, Carlos Tevez and none other than Lionel Messi. Unfortunately for Uruguay, Diego Forlan is in a bit of a slump, while for Argentina, Lionel Messi is only just starting to hit his stride in the tournament.

But despite what happened in the group stage, the best players almost always rise up when they are most needed, and Diego Forlan will rise up for Uruguay here. The match will go back and forth, with both teams creating chances often, but in the end, Uruguay's well ogranized and stubborn defense led by Diego Lugano will keep Argentina's stars in check.

Final Score: Uruguay 2-1 Argentina  

Brazil vs. Paraguay

These two sides met in their second matches of the group stage and drew 2-2. After falling behind to a goal from Jadson, the Paraguayans scored two quick goals before Fred scored a last minute equaliser. Paraguay showed some flashes of brilliance by coming back from 1-0 down against Brazil and Venezuela, but in the end, they had to settle for draws.

Brazil had the opposite problem, as they gave up a one goal lead three times, once to Paraguay and twice to Ecuador. However the Brazilians, unlike Paraguay, were able to find victory by beating a stubborn Ecuador 4-2, and were seemingly able to make up for a bad start.

Unlike the first time they met, this time, there is a lot at stake, with one team going to the semifinals while the other goes home. Considering there is more at stake, it is likely that there won't be as many goals scored as in the first meeting. While Paraguay have perhaps the strongest defense out of all the South American teams, Brazil's young forwards have enough pace to stretch out the Paraguayan defense and create a couple of good chances for Brazil.

Final Score: Brazil 2-0 Paraguay 

Chile vs. Venezuela

Chile thus far have been the only side that with high expectations that have been able to, or come close to, meeting those high expectations, having drawn against Uruguay and winning against Peru and Mexico. Venezuela have surprised everyone by drawing against Brazil and Paraguay and beating Ecuador.

For Venezuela, it has been a far tougher road, having played against giants Brazil and Paraguay, while Chile's only real challenge has been a struggling Uruguay. For Chile, this tournament provides a great chance to show how good they really are after playing impressively in the world cup qualifiers and first couple of games of the World Cup but going out early in the round of 16. For Venezuela, it's a chance to prove themselves after finishing seventh in world cup qualifiers.

Chile are the clear favorites, and with Venezuela not having anything special to offer, it's hard to like their chances against Chile. Alexi Sanchez and company won't have too much trouble passing the ball around pitch against a weak Venezuelan side that doesn't offer much more than heart and the will to never give up. Although those are two great assets to have, their lacking talent and organization in defense and in the midfield is sure to catch up with Venezuela.

Final Score: Chile 4-0 Venezuela

Peru vs. Uruguay

Since Venezuela and Colombia were knocked out in the quarterfinals, the clear surprise team is Peru. Peru, apart from being one of the weaker sides in the tournament, have also had the toughest road out of all of the teams in the tournament, having played in a group that produced three of the four semifinalists in the tournament and then against the team with the best record in the group stages, Colombia.

Uruguay haven't had it much easier, playing in the same group as Peru and then against the host and one of the favorites, Argentina. Over the last couple of years, Peru has had great success against Uruguay, beating them 3-0 in the 2007 Copa America and 1-0 in qualifiers and also earning a 1-1 draw in the group stages.

For Peru, reaching the semifinals is an incredible achievement considering they finished dead last in the qualifiers. But Peru's Copa America run and success against Uruguay will come to an end in the semifinals. Uruguay's defense will do well to give Vargas trouble and will therefore cut off Guerrero and Advincula's main supply line.

On the other end, Uruguay's talented forwards will draw a couple of fouls from the rough Peruvian defense, which will give them several opportunities to score, and considering they have had some great success from set pieces recently, they probably won't waste many opportunities. Vargas is bound to get free a couple of times creating some chances for Peru and keeping the match interesting, but in the end, Uruguay will be too much.

Final Score: Uruguay 3-1 Peru    

Brazil vs. Chile

This match is sure to be entertaining. These two sides met in the round of 16 of the World Cup, where Brazil won a one sided game 3-0, so these two sides have met in big matches before. Brazil can reach the final for the third time in a row and the sixth time out of the last seven tournaments. Chile are trying to reach their fifth final and win it for the first time.

Chile haven't found too much success against Brazil, recently losing 3-0 and 6-1 in the 2007 Copa America, 3-0 and 4-2 in qualifiers and 3-0 in the World Cup. With the momentum that Chile picked up by getting a huge 4-0 victory over Venezuela, this should be a much tougher match for Brazil than any of the recent games against Chile.

For Chile, their success comes at the hands of Alexi Sanchez and Jorge Valdivia. However, with Brazil constantly pushing up with Maicon or Dani Alves coming up from the defense, the Chileans will probably have to take a defensive approach to this match and hold back on much of their attacking threat. This means that Sanchez and Valdivia will have a limited impact on the match and won't be able to display most of their talent.

For Brazil, it will be easy, since Chile won't be as threatening as they normally are. However, Chile's numbers in defense will hold Brazil off for a while, but in the end, Chile's lack of an impact offensively will end up costing them.

Final Score: Brazil 1-0 Chile   

Uruguay vs. Brazil

For Uruguay, it's an opportunity to win their 15th title, making them the winning-est team in Copa America history. For Brazil, it's a chance to win the ninth title and their third in a row. It took awhile for both teams to finally get rolling in this competition, but when it comes down to it, they are easily the two best sides in South America.

Brazil keep producing talented players, and it seems that they completely remodel their team whenever a competition comes, and almost every time, those teams manage to be successful.

Uruguay are almost the complete opposite. They rely on experienced players and keep using the same old stars. At first, this Uruguayan side didn't seem to have a lot of success, but in the 2010 World Cup, they finished fourth and proved themselves to the whole planet.

With Uruguay's organization and Brazil's youth and pace, it should be a very interesting match. Uruguay will do their best to keep the Brazilians at bay by closing down on them and closing up any holes, while Brazil will do their best in opening the Uruguayans up. The match will be tense at first, with both teams trying to feel each other out. The second half will be a lot less tense, and there will be several opportunities for both sides.

After the 90 minutes, neither team is really dominant, and the match goes to extra time. During extra time, it comes down to Uruguay's experience. Despite Brazil being younger, Uruguay's experience ends up being the difference as the big player (Suarez, Lugano, Forlan, etc.), rises to the occasion.

Final Score: Uruguay 3-1 Brazil a.e.t