Chelsea's Top Scorer 2011/12: Torres, Drogba & Villas-Boas' Potential Contenders

Andre Villas-Boas declared this week, during his first Chelsea press conference, that he intended to implement an expansive attacking style which will appease Roman Abramovich, who craves the tiki-taka style that Barcelona has made famous worldwide.

Despite a turbulent season, Chelsea had the best defense in the Premier League (equal to Manchester City) with just 33 goals conceded. It would be fair to blame last season's failure to claim a trophy on the lack of goals scored.

One of the reasons, it would appear, that Carlo Ancelotti was sacked would be the staggering regression of the side in terms of goals.

Chelsea claimed the Premier League 2009/10 in swashbuckling fashion scoring a record-breaking 103 goals. Fast forward one year and despite a late charge to defend its crown, Chelsea would have almost laughed had its performances been enough to win the title.

The problem being a 34-goal drop off from the season before. Simply put, this was not good enough for a side that seldom finished a game without having enough chances to win it.

At times, it was baffling as to how the Blues had not won games such as the away fixture to Birmingham, which it lost 1-0. Florent Malouda created 11 chances by himself that day with 14 others, yet Chelsea miraculously failed to score.

It would seem that although there was clearly some wasteful finishing at times the type of chances that the opposition afforded Chelsea throughout the season were all in relatively safe areas, normally outside the area with many bodies blocking a direct sight to the goal.

Each member of the current squad will need to improve their goal scoring output. The top two scorers for Chelsea in 2009/10 were Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard who combined for 51 goals. Last season the highest scoring pair were Malouda and Drogba who managed just 25 between them. 

In deciphering who will replicate Villas-Boas' tactics at Chelsea, we can look at how the goal scoring was broken down last season at Porto. The Dragoes scored 128 goals in 54 matches in all competitions.

The central striker, Radamel Falcao, scored 39 goals, the left forward, Hulk, scored 35 goals and Silvestre Varela, who predominantly started as the left forward, scored 12 goals.

From the regular starting three in midfield, Fredy Guarín scored 10 goals, whilst Fernando and João Moutinho mustered just two each. These figures will help to analyze who, in the Chelsea squad that Villas-Boas will inherit, will be capable of resembling the Porto players of last season. 

Villas-Boas will attempt to transform Chelsea's attack to a more dynamic style that endeavors to hurt the opposition in the space behind its defense with athleticism and quick movement.

So let's take a look at the candidates capable of scoring the goals to potentially win trophies next season and ultimately predict how many the leading scorer for the Blues will get in Villas-Boas' first season in charge.

Follow Jack Alexandros on Twitter

Fernando Torres

Fernando Torres endured a torrid few months after joining Chelsea for £50 million ($80 million) from Liverpool in January 2011. The lack of time to integrate himself fully with his new teammates (only Yossi Benayoun had ever played with the Spaniard before) was telling.

The pressure of instantly justifying a British transfer fee record seemed to hamper Torres as he scored just once in 18 appearances.

Many skeptics were quick to doubt El Niño would ever be the same again after suffering from a combination of several niggling injuries and complete burnout from the continued success of the Spanish National team.

La Furia Roja have dominated international football for the last three years and in the process have played international tournaments during three straight summers when players predominantly rest.

Torres was part of the European Championship-winning side in Austria and Switzerland in 2008. With this triumph, Torres was obliged to represent Spain at the 2009 Confederations Cup in South Africa before returning 12 months later, as Spain won the 2010 World Cup.

It is also generally regarded that Torres often risked further injury for his previous club Liverpool when it rushed him back from injury when the side was visibly suffering without him.

With no such burden at Chelsea and a full summer of recuperation, Torres should be fresh and ready to start the 2011/12 season.

Villas-Boas should opt for to use the Spaniard as his central striker initially in a 4-3-3. Providing Torres has the motivation to reach his best again, this time for Chelsea, then the Spaniard should relish a return to starring in a lone-striker role.

Torres possesses great movement and should retrieve his blistering pace after a summer break which will allow him to get in behind the opposition's defense in a similar way to how Falcao did for Porto last season. 

Torres is 8/1 (+800) to be the Premier League top scorer in 2011/12.

Didier Drogba

Didier Drogba is undeniably one of the best strikers in the Premier League and along with Torres, perhaps the only World Class attacker that Chelsea can call upon at this moment.

The Ivorian failed to develop a partnership with Torres initially but both have insisted they can work together and many still believe with time they can operate together in a Chelsea attack, even in a 4-3-3.

I would speculate that both would form part of a front three as by successfully accommodating both, provided they can both regain their top form, it would clearly give Chelsea the greatest opportunity to win trophies.'

Intriguingly, Villas-Boas successfully implemented Hulk in to the side, despite not playing in his preferred central role.

Drogba is certainly technically good enough to adapt to a style that would not necessarily involve long balls as he has become so accustomed to in his seven seasons at Chelsea. He possesses superb finishing skills and crucially has a better eye for goal from outside of the penalty area than Torres.

Villas-Boas does not restrict his wider attacking players and would not insist on them remaining close to the side line, to stretch the opposition, or helping out defensively.

The Portuguese believes that just by occupying a role close to the opposition's penalty area you can become a threat and take away an extra option of the opponent's attack due to enforced man-marking.

Drogba would certainly be open to the possibility of playing from a left forward role as opposed to playing at a left forward role which is the crucial difference from last season. Ancelotti refused to accommodate both players in a 4-3-3 and tinkered with the formation, opting for a 4-4-2.

This took away one of Chelsea's key strengths, its dominant central midfield, and often handed the initiative in terms of possession to the opposition.

The Ivorian striker is more capable of assisting a goal than Torres which would make him a better fit starting from a wider area. He had 17 assists in all competitions last term.

Despite just 16 goals last season, Drogba is clearly capable of scoring at least twice that amount if the service is right, and if he operated from the left side, we could see him cutting inside on to his right foot to devastating effect.

Drogba is 14/1 (+1400) to be Premier League top scorer in 2011/12.

Frank Lampard

Frank Lampard is the most prolific goal scoring midfielder that the Premier League has ever seen. The England international has scored 170 goals for Chelsea at a ratio of a goal every three games.

Lampard is known for being one of the best players in the league at timing his runs from midfield to join up with the attack. He missed a large amount of last season due to injury which has led some to believe that at 33-years-old he is in decline.

But Lampard is known for being one of the fittest players in the league and has always ensured he is in excellent condition, even during the off-season.

Only a year ago, Lampard experienced perhaps his best season ever with the Blues, contributing 27 goals in 51 games, a phenomenal achievement.

Lampard has been top scorer for Chelsea on three occasions, 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2007-08. Only Didier Drogba's remarkable total of 37 goals two seasons ago prevented Lampard from picking up a fourth award.

An important aspect to Lampard's goal-scoring form has been his role as the penalty taker, which could amount to, in the case of last season, eight extra opportunities to score.

However there is a caveat that should be considered in terms of Lampard's eventual goals total next season. Chelsea's No. 8 is equally as impressive when it comes to assisting goals and an important facet to the Villas-Boas system last term was a central midfielder called João Moutinho.

Moutinho was instructed to be disciplined in terms of vacating the midfield to join the attack but instead look to maintain possession and seek out a defense splitting pass to Porto's pacey front line.

Lampard is a superb long range passer of the ball and is equally as adept at seeing an opening that can catch a defense off-guard as he demonstrated against Manchester City in 2007 with a sublime pass of the sort for which many eulogize Xavi Hernández.

So Lampard's role may be adjusted slightly in part due to Villas-Boas' tactics and also his physical condition, which will need to be looked after as he approaches the end of his career.

Lampard is 40/1 (+4000) to be Premier League top scorer in 2011/12.

Nicolas Anelka

Nicolas Anelka may be 32 years old and seen as expendable in the new Villas-Boas regime, but it is undeniable that the Frenchman is a world class finisher, perhaps the best at Chelsea with Torres.

Anelka finished the 2008/09 campaign as the top scorer in the Premier League with 19 goals. Towards the end of last season, Anelka found it tough to force his way in to the starting 11 despite evidence that a successful partnership could blossom with Torres with a great performance in the Champions League against FC Copenhagen.

It is clear that Anelka would be in with a chance of being the top scorer next season if he was given equal minutes to his teammates, but it seems that if he is afforded a stay at Chelsea, then it will be to contribute from the bench.

Anelka is 22/1 (+2200) to be Premier League top scorer in 2011/12.

The Outsiders: Daniel Sturridge and Florent Malouda

I consider these to be outsiders in the sense that their minutes would seem to be restricted in the case of Daniel Sturridge or even non-existent if Florent Malouda is to be sold as some rumors would want you to believe.

However, both players can contribute a plentiful amount of goals. Sturridge showed he was capable of returning a prolific strike-rate when given the comfort of a starting role. The England Under 21 international struck eight times in just 12 games whilst on loan at Bolton in the second half of last season.

Malouda is well equipped to provide a lot of goals in the same sense as mentioned earlier with Drogba. Should Villas-Boas deploy Malouda as one of his three forwards, then the Frenchman could easily match his total from last season, especially if he plays from a right forward position.

Both Malouda and Sturridge are left footed and could relish the opportunity to be given early service as Chelsea look to play with a high-tempo style. Both players could become very dangerous when cutting in on their left foots.

Goals like Malouda's against West Ham or Sturridge's against, again ironically, West Ham could become a common occurrence. Especially as the wide forwards will be afforded the opportunity by Villas-Boas to drift inside and lose their markers.

Malouda is 66/1 (+6600) to be Premier League top scorer in 2011/12.

Sturridge is 40/1 (+4000) to be Premier League top scorer in 2012/12.

A Newcomer? Radamel Falcao of Porto? Neymar of Santos?

It is quite conceivable that Chelsea will sign a new striker because, as mentioned before, last season's goal-scoring total was woeful for a club who aspire to be champions.

It is therefore possible that Abramovich, who is prone to mingle with transfer dealings, could have grown tired with the current squad's attacking options and would desire a new striking talent to gift to the new manager, Villas-Boas.

Not only this, but Villas-Boas may want to recruit some of the players from his successful Porto side that would be willing to join their mentor due to the phenomenal results that the Portuguese achieved with them during his time with the Dragões.

Falcao has been persistently linked with the Blues and stated his desire to join Chelsea should a deal be agreed. There is also the temptation to move for Falcao due to his unusually low release clause, for a player of the Colombian's quality, of €30 million ($42.6 million).

Neymar of Santos has also been linked to Chelsea since it lodged several bids that were rejected from his club Santos, last year. The Brazilian has just won the Copa Libertadores with a 2-1 aggregate victory over Peñarol.

This complicates matters as the player, along with fellow sensation and team mate Paulo Henrique Ganso, would prefer to remain in Brazil for six more months to attempt to win the Club World Cup.

Another stumbling block is the interest from other clubs, mainly Real Madrid, who seem to have stolen a march on its rivals.

Although, Santos claim as many as five European clubs have matched the release clause of R$100 million ($64 million). This story could run until the transfer deadline at the end of August.

Only time will tell if Chelsea can snare one of the globe's leading attacking talents.

Conclusion: Fernando Torres with Didier Drogba or New Signing a Close Second

I predict that Fernando Torres will rekindle his prolific goal scoring exploits and justify his exuberant price tag.

The Spaniard will be primed to lead the Chelsea attack and will benefit from a long rest before becoming newly accustomed to a new manager's tactics like every other team mate, which was not the case in January as all but fellow arrival David Luíz had worked with Ancelotti for at least half a season.

The pre-season will benefit him hugely as Torres will develop a relationship with his team mates and vice versa. When earlier analyzing Porto's goal-scoring statistics last season, there were several conclusions to be drawn.

The front three scored 66% of Porto's 128 goals, and in particular Falcao contributed 30% and Hulk chipped in with 27% as the two of them contributed over half the side's goals.

Interestingly, Villas-Boas selected Falcao for 42 of Porto's 54 games and omitted the Colombian for the majority of the early rounds of the domestic cup matches as well as league matches that preceded crucial Europa League matches.

This should benefit Torres as he will be kept fresh and his physical condition will be managed with peak periods identified throughout the season.

This will be something that Torres will not have likely experienced before as Liverpool,or Atlético Madrid would not have been afforded such a luxury with Champions League qualification never guaranteed to the extent of Chelsea.

Falcao racked up 39 goals, but this included many goals in Portuguese competitions. The Portuguese league is currently outside the top five league according to the UEFA coefficient and is therefore given less weighting than the Premier League, when determining the European Golden Shoe (EGS).

The EGS only takes into account league goals, but we can use the same system to estimate Torres' goal tally next season on the basis of Falcao's feat of 39 goals, in all competitions, from last season.

UEFA effectively say that the Portuguese league is one and a half times easier than the Premier League by multiplying the goal scoring totals from this league by 1.5 in the final calculation for the winner of the EGS.

The Premier League scorers have their total multiplied by 2.0, so for the sole purpose of estimating what the central striker, in a Villas-Boas side, could possibly score, we will divide Falcao's total of 39 goals in all competitions by 1.5.

The result is 26 and when you consider, despite Falcao's excellent two seasons at Porto, that Torres is still highly regarded and considered a better player than Falcao, this figure seems a more than reasonable target for the Spaniard.

Expect Torres to comfortably break 20 goals and break 30 if you consider Chelsea can potentially play as many as 62 games next season, without factoring in replays, depending on success.

Follow Jack Alexandros on Twitter