5 Reasons Why Manchester United Can Win the 2017/18 Premier League
Before the football season starts, almost anything seems possible. Optimism is the currency of pre-season—well, that and the huge amounts of actual currency that changes hands to allow football's finest to move clubs.
For Manchester United, the cry of "this is our year" has become a little softer over the past couple of seasons. From being essentially guaranteed to finish in the top two during Sir Alex Ferguson's last few seasons, United have finished seventh, fourth, fifth and sixth since the great man's departure.
Optimism somehow existed before each of these seasons, too. In the David Moyes' year, United fans were able to reassure themselves that their team had been comfortable champions a few months prior. In the first Louis van Gaal season, there was the excitement of the arrival of a new, more competent manager, and a bunch of superstar signings.
In the second Van Gaal season, there was the hope that he would have learned the lessons of the first. And then last season, Jose Mourinho, that most serial of serial winners, had arrived and brought with him Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Paul Pogba, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Eric Bailly. Surely things would be better now?
They were, of course, a bit, but United's league campaign was a bad joke.
Nonetheless, as we head into the new season, the thought that things could be different this time is hard to shake. While an equally convincing list could probably be written about why United are not going to win the league this time out, here are some reasons why they definitely could.
Jose's Sophomore Peak
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From his time at Porto on, Mourinho has won the league in the second season of every one of his managerial stints. He sometimes won it at the first time of asking, too, but his second bite at it has worked every single time.
That means the Primeira Liga with Porto, the Premier League with Chelsea—both times—Serie A with Inter and La Liga with Real Madrid. The Sophomore Slump is an oft-discussed concept, but Mourinho has a Sophomore Peak.
Now, some of this is about circumstance, rather than some sort of second-season speciality. Indeed, Real Madrid and the second spell at Chelsea were the two occasions on which he did not just win a league title straight out of the traps. At Porto, Chelsea Volume One and Inter, he did not bother waiting a year and just won the thing straight away.
But the fact that his last two jobs saw him fall short first time around and then pick up the pieces offers a lot of hope for United fans here. He has spent a year with the squad, learning its strengths and weaknesses, and has been backed in the transfer market to improve its shortfalls. He must now back himself to add value on the training pitch and at the tactics board.
Given his history of second-season wins, there is plenty of cause to believe he can do it again.
Romelu Lukaku Adds the Clinical Finishing United Need
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Ibrahimovic—as has been widely discussed on these pages and elsewhere—had an odd season at United. The simple summary of it all is that he scored a lot of important goals and missed a lot of big chances.
Romelu Lukaku will offer something different. Ibrahimovic is, of course, proven at the highest level over the course of a long career, and he belongs in a different category to Lukaku in that sense, but the Belgium international might just be closer to what United need now.
After all, the Zlatan that came to United was the 35-year-old version of Zlatan. Still very, very good, of course, but with weaknesses to his game. He made a lot of intelligent runs, but none of them were particularly quick. Lukaku brings another level of mobility, meaning he will occupy defenders in a different way.
And, in all likelihood, he will take more of the chances that fall to him than Ibra did last time out. Clinical finishing is at the heart of his game. Last season he finished 22.7 per cent of the chances that fell to him, compared with the 14.8 Ibrahimovic managed, per BBC Sport.
Given how many draws a small percentage increase in chance conversion could have turned into wins last season, especially at Old Trafford, this statistical difference could have a massive impact on the Red Devils' campaign. And it gives cause for hope this time around.
Nemanja Matic Frees United's Creators
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For Lukaku to do well, he will need plenty of service—something Ibrahimovic did get, but an area of United's game that could be even better this time out.
Nemanja Matic is clearly not the most glamorous signing United have made in the past few years, but he could be one of the most crucial, in the short-term at least.
Matic is a round peg for the round hole in front of United's central defenders. He will break up play, be positionally disciplined and offer a platform for United's creative players to work their magic. This is most important for Pogba, of course, the most talented player in United's squad by some distance. Matic could be just the man to allow him to thrive.
His passing is good enough to do the job it needs to do, his relationship with Mourinho is clearly solid and his presence will allow for more risks to be taken, not just by Pogba, but also by United's full-backs or wing-backs, meaning players like Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial and Mkhitaryan are less likely to be isolated when they get the ball.
United have not had a player like him for a long time, and it could make a big difference.
Last Season's Signings Have Had a Summer
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Pogba arrived at United without the benefit of pre-season, after a long, emotionally draining European Championship with France, and arrived into a transitional and uncertain team.
Mkhitaryan had to contend with Mourinho's man-management style, something that clearly took its toll in the early months of his United career. Bailly seemed to acclimatise straight away, but even he had disruptions to his settling in process, both from injury and the Africa Cup of Nations.
This time Pogba will have had pre-season and a year to stamp his personality on the dressing room. Mkhitaryan and Mourinho must clearly have come to some kind of working relationship given the Armenian's impact on United's Europa League campaign in particular. Bailly has no predetermined absences this time around.
There are new players who will need to settle, but some of United's best are now established members of the squad and should be even better this time out.
The Field Is Wide Open
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Manchester City have spent a(nother) fortune this summer to get Pep Guardiola what he thinks he needs to bring Pep-ball to the Premier League, but we do not yet know how well that will work. Last season was a thoroughly mixed bag for the Catalonian, and while received wisdom suggests they will be better this time out, there are a lot of questions left to answer.
Chelsea and Liverpool both have Champions League football to contend with this season, meaning less time on the training ground to implement specific tactical systems.
And while there is a long way to go in the transfer window, neither of those clubs have yet wowed in the market. Also, Chelsea did not react well the last time they won the title, which adds a question mark to their campaign, and Liverpool have not won a league since 1990.
Tottenham Hotspur have twice fallen short, and while their first XI might just be the division's best, they are still unproven.
And Arsenal...well...you know...
Of course, any of those clubs may answer the questions being asked of them with resounding success, but United are at least as well placed to do so. There is a huge amount of uncertainty going into this season, but for the time being, each of last season's top six clubs will be able to construct a reason why it will be their turn to win the title.
After all, the season is just on the verge of kicking off. If you can't be optimistic then, when can you?
