Mesut Ozil vs. N'Golo Kante the Key Duel in Arsenal vs. Chelsea

Moving rapidly from one glamour tie to another, Chelsea may already be feeling the effects of the seasonal grind of football.

They prepare to face Arsenal this weekend on the back of two big tussles—first, a Friday Night Football loss to Liverpool, followed by an extra-time victory over Leicester City in the EFL Cup—as the games continue to come thick and fast.

The Gunners enjoyed a decidedly easier warm-up to this contest, beating Nottingham Forest 4-0 and flexing their squad-depth muscles in the process after scoring another four last weekend against high-flying Hull City. While they will hardly expect to move from eight goals in two games to 12 in three, they’re in better physical and mental nick than Antonio Conte’s Blues.

For Arsene Wenger, this game represents a huge chance to reset the record on his and his team’s season so far. The Frenchman has traditionally struggled against top-tier tacticians, and Conte is one of them; the two times Wenger has faced such tacticians this season—in Jurgen Klopp and Unai Emery—he has lost and drawn.

Arsenal

Wenger has options aplenty in midfield despite Aaron Ramsey’s enforced absence due to injury. Granit Xhaka’s back-to-back impressive showings have him knocking on the first-team door, and Mohamed Elneny represents a safe pair of hands, too, but Francis Coquelin and Santi Cazorla have been the first-choice combination and could well take to the pitch as a pair again.

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Alexis Sanchez has ranged from good to bad in volatile fashion since being installed as the central striker, and with Olivier Giroud still a fitness question mark, the Chilean may be forced to go again up top.

Theo Walcott has made progressive, hardworking steps over the past few weeks and seems to have shut Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain out of the team, while Alex Iwobi, when fit, has regularly been given a chance to play from the left.

The defence picks itself, though Nacho Monreal’s indifferent start to the season may have Kieran Gibbs hopeful of a starting spot here. Shkodran Mustafi and Laurent Koscielny have slowly been melding as a pair.

Chelsea

Conte has a number of big decisions to make in the wake of an up-and-down week in charge of Chelsea, with John Terry’s place in the side front and centre among them. Is he fit? If so, does he slot back in and force David Luiz back to the bench? Or would Terry partner Luiz and leave Gary Cahill in the cold?

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Cesc Fabregas’ brace against Leicester City has strengthened his claim for a first-team spot, with Oscar or Nemanja Matic both under threat from him. Willian hasn’t convinced in every appearance he has made either, though the chances of him being dropped for Pedro for this game are slim.

The last conundrum is the full-back one: Does Marcos Alonso assume the left-back mantle and push Cesar Azpilicueta back over to the right? Branislav Ivanovic had a torrid time of it against Liverpool last week and dropping him would not be harsh. Conte doesn’t appear sold on the Serb at all—B/R’s Dean Jones has revealed some MLS clubs are already looking into his situation as a result.

Pressure point 1: Combination play

Chelsea’s performances under Conte so far do not possess many tactical hallmarks. That’s not to say they’re just the same as last year—a simple dose of motivation is the major difference between the current iteration and Guus Hiddink’s—but it does mean they've yet to take on too many “Conte trends.”

They’re playing out of a 4-1-4-1 formation, Michy Batshuayi is yet to partner Diego Costa from the start, there’s no three at the back, and there’s no Leonardo Bonucci clone or wing-back play. Renewed vigour to win games and fight to the end aside, it’s just not very...Conte, yet.

But what we have seen is intricate partnerships developing on the pitch, with Eden Hazard and Nemanja Matic combining well, and Willian and Oscar melding on the other side. N’Golo Kante is, rather curiously, being used as a deep-lying playmaker—a far cry from his rumbustious, box-to-box role at Leicester City last season—and he sits between the two sets of two, linking play.

Oscar has been more impressive than Matic, utilising mobility and linking well with Willian in possession, while the Serb has enjoyed a freer role than usual, roaming down the left a bit more and entering the box to impact final-third play.

Credit: Sky Sport Diretta

These five midfielders have seen a lot of the ball, and while the link-ups are good, the ultimate goal is to get the ball to Hazard. The Liverpool loss aside, the Belgian has been in scintillating form, and he’s impacting games heavily by darting into space and carrying the ball into dangerous areas. His more ambitious, expansive play balances out the rest of the midfield’s short-passing game.

The fact that Hazard must do much of the left-side work alone, though, is patently clear; it was the same in his peak 2014-15 season, where he dominated flanks single-handedly. The reason he gets little support is because Azpilicueta is right-footed and rarely overlaps, frequently stopping short of Hazard or opting to cut it on his preferred foot.

Alonso is a natural fix to this—should he start. Shifting Azpilicueta back to the right could have its own teething problems, but he wouldn’t be any worse than Ivanovic was against Liverpool. That paves a path at left-back, and Alonso could alleviate the workload Hazard experiences.

Chelsea’s passing graph (provided by Opta) against Watford illustrates the issue very well: Hazard is highly involved, which is fine, but there’s no relationship between he and Azpilicueta high up. On the opposite flank, Oscar and Pedro combine well and in similar areas. Relying on Hazard to beat Nordin Amrabat is fine; asking him to get the better of Hector Bellerin without help is a far bigger ask.

Pressure point 2: N’Golo Kante vs. Mesut Ozil

Arsenal’s buildup play has steadily improved as the season has worn on, and that’s directly linked to the installation of Cazorla (or Xhaka) in central midfield. Coquelin is getting more and more involved, too, but it’s one of the former two who really make this side tick.

The key for Arsenal is to spread the ball around and, in particular, feed Ozil in between the lines. The German is one of the finest movement-based players around, and when Cazorla links the side back to front, Ozil can be used to devastating effect.

On Saturday, though, Ozil’s world will collide with Kante’s—who, as discussed, is being used as a pure holder and distributor. While his passing is underrated and his recycling of the ball is good, his best attributes are still clearly his athleticism, tackling and tracking of runners. All of those strengths will be needed to nullify Ozil.

Credit: Sky Sport Diretta

It’ll be a fascinating duel, as they will play in exactly the same area for the entirety of the time they are on the pitch. Unless either manager moves away for their usual formation, it will pit two of the best 10 players in the league one-on-one.

If Kante shuts down the space in front of the defence and nullifies Ozil, Arsenal’s ball circulation issues seen against Liverpool on the opening day will return (when Ramsey was the No. 10). They ended up funnelling it wide an awful lot to no avail, with the onus placed on Walcott to engineer clear-cut chances.

If that happens, Arsenal cannot win this game.

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