La Liga Table: Title Odds and Predictions Heading into Week 23 of 2014-15 Season
Atletico Madrid's thrashing of league leaders Real Madrid in Week 22 has thrown the La Liga title race wide open, with the top three in the standings just four points apart as we head into Matchday 23.
Barcelona sit one point behind Los Blancos and will host lowly Levante on Sunday, hours before the defending champions head for Galicia to take on Celta Vigo. Real play on Saturday, hosting Deportivo La Coruna.
Valencia, Sevilla and Villarreal are too far back and have been too inconsistent in recent weeks to be considered title candidates. The big three will once again grab the top spot of the end of the season—the question is, who will it be? Here's a look at the current standings:
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| 1 | Real Madrid | 22 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 70 | 22 | +48 | 54 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 62 | 13 | +49 | 53 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 22 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 20 | +27 | 50 |
| 4 | Valencia | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 40 | 20 | +20 | 44 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 26 | +10 | 42 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 20 | +17 | 41 |
| 7 | Malaga | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 35 |
| 8 | Eibar | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | Espanyol | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 26 |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 25 |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 24 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 23 |
| 13 | Athletic Bilbao | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 31 | -11 | 23 |
| 14 | Getafe | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 23 |
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 23 |
| 16 | Almeria | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 22 |
| 17 | Elche | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 42 | -22 | 20 |
| 18 | Levante | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 19 |
| 19 | Cordoba | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 18 |
| 20 | Granada | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 35 | -21 | 18 |
The schedule for Matchday 23:
| Friday, Feb. 13 | 7.45 p.m. | Almeria | Real Sociedad | 0-0 |
| Saturday, Feb. 14 | 3 p.m. | Sevilla | Cordoba | 2-0 |
| Saturday, Feb. 14 | 5 p.m. | Real Madrid | Deportivo | 5-1 |
| Saturday, Feb. 14 | 7 p.m. | Granada | Athletic Club | 1-2 |
| Saturday, Feb. 14 | 9 p.m. | Malaga | Espanyol | 2-1 |
| Sunday, Feb. 15 | 11 a.m. | Valencia | Getafe | 3-0 |
| Sunday, Feb. 15 | 4 p.m. | Barcelona | Levante | 4-0 |
| Sunday, Feb. 15 | 6 p.m. | Rayo Vallecano | Villarreal | 1-1 |
| Sunday, Feb. 15 | 8 p.m. | Celta Vigo | Atletico | 1-2 |
| Monday, Fe. 16 | 7.45 p.m. | Eibar | Elche | 2-2 |
The current title odds, courtesy of Oddschecker.com:
| Real Madrid | 8/11 |
| Barcelona | 5/4 |
| Atletico Madrid | 14/1 |
| Valencia | 150/1 |
| Sevilla | 1000/1 |
| Villarreal | 1000/1 |
| Malaga | 2500/1 |
No Upsets In Week 23
Ignoring the result of last week's clash between Real and Atletico, the last time any of the clubs currently in the top three dropped points was back in Week 18, when Atleti lost 3-1 against... Barcelona.
It's an inconvenient truth: The big three clubs of Spanish football are more than just a class better than the rest of La Liga. Diego Simeone's fantastic work with Atleti becomes even more impressive when you take into account the discrepancy in the club's budgets due to Spain's current laws regarding TV rights, via ESPN FC's Dermot Corrigan:
"Atletico CEO Gil Marin calls on Spanish government to get act together & pass law mandating centralised TV rights: http://t.co/VBov7CPkZP
— Dermot Corrigan (@dermotmcorrigan) February 10, 2015"
The gulf in talent has been very clear on the pitch in 2015, and Week 23 will be no different. Of the three top clubs, Atletico have the toughest fixture on paper, facing Celta Vigo in Galicia.
Vigo started the season in fine form but have won just one of their last 12 La Liga matches, and after a disappointing 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad, the club shouldn't present much of a problem for Atletico.
The same can be said for Levante and Deportivo La Coruna. The latter have won two of their last three, but going up against a Real squad looking to make a statement after the loss against Atletico, a trashing at the hands of Los Blancos seems far more likely than an upset.
Real Will Make a Statement
Speaking of Los Blancos, fans going to the Bernabeu on Saturday should expect to see plenty of goals, and not just because Deportivo's goal difference ranks among the very worst in La Liga.
The heavy loss against Atletico and the controversy surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo's birthday party has had an impact on the positivity the club seems to have carried with it for the past few months. Sami Khedira even felt the need to address the latter, via ESPN FC's Dermot Corrigan:
When Ronaldo takes the pitch on Saturday, he will have gone nearly a month without scoring. He's coming off his worst performance of the season, and the Ballon d'Or winner will be extra motivated to show everyone he's still the best player in the world.
La Coruna aren't a bad side, but a shaky and inexperienced back four has held the Galicians back all year. They've lost nearly half of their matches so far, conceding 34 goals in the process, per WhoScored.com. AS' Nicholas Rigg doesn't like their chances:
Injuries along the back four means Carlo Ancelotti will likely ask his players to attack early and often, taking all the pressure off the defence. Coupled with a motivated Ronaldo, expect Los Blancos to run riot against Deportivo.
Title Prediction: Real still hold all the cards, but Barcelona's form in recent weeks has been impeccable. Injuries in the defensive department could doom Los Blancos, but they still look like the most complete team in La Liga. Real remain the favourites for now, but the race looks like it could be a lot closer than we would have expected a month ago.
