Premier League Betting Tips Week 14: Top Matches and Goalscorers to Wager

Timothy Rapp@@TRappaRTFeatured ColumnistDecember 3, 2013

NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 02:  Loic Remy of Newcastle United celebrates scoring their second goal during the Barclays Premier League match between Newcastle United and Chelsea at St James' Park on November 2, 2013 in Newcastle upon Tyne, England.  (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

The Premier League, like every other league in every other sport, is ultimately about probabilities, not certainties. It seems likely that one team will beat another, or that one player will score a goal. Analysts make predictions and projections, not guarantees.

But sometimes, there is enough evidence supporting a trend that it seems safe to predict with confidence which teams will win in a given week or which players will find the back of the net. Here, I've attempted to do just that for Matchday 14.


Top Teams to Wager
PickOpponentLocationOdds to Win (via Bloomberg Sports)
ArsenalHull CityEmirates Stadium (Home)65.8 percent
LiverpoolNorwich CityAnfield (Home)62.6 percent
ChelseaSunderlandStadium of Light (Away)56.8 percent
TottenhamFulhamCraven Cottage (Away)54.9 percent

If this seems obvious, well, it should. Let's talk about teams to avoid first.

You probably shouldn't touch the Manchester United versus Everton game. That contest could go either way, and the safest bet might be predicting a draw. 

The other obvious team left off this list is Manchester City, who travel to face West Brom. While the Citizens will be favoured, they are incredibly unpredictable on the road. While Manchester City has yet to drop a single point at the Etihad Stadium in Premier League play, they've won just one away match in the league this season, while losing four and drawing one.

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 01:  Sergio Aguero of Manchester City has a shot stopped by Gerhard Tremmel of Swansea City during the Barclays Premier League match between Manchester City and Swansea City at Etihad Stadium on December 1, 2013 in Mancheste
Clive Brunskill/Getty Images

For heaven's sake, they lost to Sunderland in that away fixture. The Citizens simply can't be trusted when they venture away from their home digs.

As for the other four teams on this list, only Arsenal face a top-10 side, and the Gunners have been in such fine form anything less than an easy win over Hull City would be a shocker. Feel confident that the Blues, Reds, Spurs and Gunners will roll this week.


Projecting Top Scorers
PlayerTeamOpponentProjected Goals
Luis SuarezLiverpoolNorwich CityTwo
Roberto SoldadoTottenhamFulhamTwo
Loic RemyNewcastleSwansea CityTwo
Romelu LukakuEvertonManchester UnitedOne
Olivier GiroudArsenalHull CityOne
Aaron RamseyArsenalHull CityOne
Wayne RooneyManchester UnitedEvertonOne
Sergio AgueroManchester CityWest BromOne

Luis Suarez, Roberto Soldado and Loic Remy are all excellent bets to earn a brace this week. Norwich City has allowed 23 goals this season, so it wouldn't be shocking if Suarez earned a hat-trick, while Soldado should be able to take advantage of a Fulham defence that has allowed 24 goals.

Swansea hasn't exactly been stingy either, allowing 19 goals, so in-form Loic Remy should easily put his name on the scoresheet. 

Either Olivier Giroud or Aaron Ramsey have seemed to score for the Gunners in every game. Don't be surprised if they each do so at home against an over-matched Hull City side. 

CARDIFF, WALES - NOVEMBER 30:  Aaron Ramsey of Arsenal scores their third goal during the Barclays Premier League match between Cardiff City and Arsenal at Cardiff City Stadium on November 30, 2013 in Cardiff, Wales.  (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

It's pretty much safe to pencil in Sergio Aguero for a goal each week, as he already has 10 for the season. Ditto for Rooney and Lukaku in this week's premier matchup between United and Everton, as each have found the net eight times this year.

One team that will likely have several goals is Chelsea against a dreadful Sunderland side, but it continues to be difficult to predict where those goals will come from. Oscar leads the team with five in Premier League play, but it remains to be seen if he'll play after leaving Sunday's win over Southampton due to injury.

Chelsea's next highest scorers are Eden Hazard (four goals) and Frank Lampard (three goals), but it's a bit risky wagering that either will put their name on the scoresheet this week.

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