International Football: Mathematical Ranking of Every National Team

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Over the past several years, many have tried (and failed) to create an adequate ranking system for international football.

The most mainstream of them, the FIFA rankings, has produced such ludicrous results that the system has become the butt of all jokes. For example, in their last rankings, England was ranked fourth in the world.

So over the past few weeks, I have created my own ranking system: the FrankFA ratings, if you would.

In this system, I have incorporated four factors in scoring each nation's performance over the past four years:

1. Results of each match
2. Importance of the match
3. Strength of opponent
4. Continental Strength

From there, I used simple mathematics to create a score out of 1000 points for each team.

After a bit of tinkering with formulas and methods, I came to a result that produced results that I deem acceptable.

Note that by no means do I believe the system to be complete.

Hence, I greatly encourage you to voice any inconsistencies you see (a team being ranked where it ought not to be), suggestions you think of or questions you have in the comment section below.

All thoughts are welcome and will be a big help to making this system as good as possible.

So where does your country rank?

Without further ado, here are my first international football rankings.

208-181

Mauritius national football team

 

Nation FrankFA Points FIFA Ranking 208 Turks and Caicos Islands 2.71 205 207 Montserrat 6.48 205 206 Bahamas 11.99 171 205 Anguilla 15.56 202 204 Sao Tome e Principe 18.90 132 203 Mauritania 19.15 202 202 British Virgin Islands 21.00 199 201 Samoa 21.66 173 200 US Virgin Islands 22.50 177 199 Brunei Darussalam 22.86 201 198 Eritrea 25.23 189 197 Cayman Islands 26.83 178 196 American Samoa 27.41 183 195 Timor-Leste 27.64 204 194 Bhutan 29.19 205 193 Aruba 29.25 164 192 Guam 32.52 194 191 Bermuda 32.86 117 190 St Lucia 35.57 186 189 Papua New Guinea 41.49 187 188 Mongolia 42.03 184 187 Dominica 43.21 172 186 Djibouti 43.91 196 185 Tonga 45.23 175 184 Guinea-Bissau 46.45 169 183 Dominican Republic 46.65 130 182 Central African Republic 49.19 73 181 Mauritius 49.27 193

 

 

Analysis

The bottom 30 teams are filled with many of the same teams as the FIFA rankings.

The biggest drop from the FIFA rankings was the Central African Republic, who fell over 100 spots to 182nd. That is probably because these rankings counted the fact that the Africans dropped out of the World Cup greatly against them.

Other big drops included the Dominican Republic, Bermuda and Sao Tome e Principe, none of which appeared in or even got to the final round of any major tournament.

180-151

Solomon Islands national football team

	Nation	FrankFA Points	FIFA Ranking
180	Macau	49.83	199
179	Comoros	49.92	185
178	Belize	50.89	131
177	Puerto Rico	51.05	140
176	Somalia	51.91	191
175	Kyrgyzstan	52.16	196
174	Madagascar	55.71	167
173	Seychelles	58.52	187
172	Liberia	61.22	120
171	Nicaragua	63.42	141
170	Sierra Leone	63.72	65
169	Pakistan	66.10	178
168	Cook Islands	66.54	195
167	San Marino	66.80	205
166	Curacao	70.46	158
165	Barbados	70.54	170
164	Laos	73.34	190
163	Chad	73.54	123
162	St Kitts and Nevis	76.97	112
161	Cambodia	78.59	192
160	Afghanistan	79.17	162
159	St Vincent and the Grenadines	79.82	146
158	Congo	85.40	91
157	Grenada	86.81	142
156	Gambia	87.78	128
155	Chinese Taipei	87.83	176
154	Suriname	90.74	132
153	Swaziland	92.40	182
152	Sri Lanka	95.52	181
151	Solomon Islands	95.72	174

 

Analysis

Again, this group lands fairly close to the FIFA rankings.

There are a few big movers mixed in, though.

For example, Sierra Leone's ranking of 65th in the FIFA rankings falls all the way to 170 in these rankings. For a team who has failed to make it through Africa to any major tournament in the past four years, this ranking seems a bit more realistic.

On the other hand, San Marino rose from 205 in the FIFA rankings to 167 in these despite losing every match they took part in during the last four years. Very strange.

150-121

Libya national football team

	Nation	FrankFA Points	FIFA Ranking
150	Cuba	96.62	149
149	Bangladesh	98.11	151
148	Cape Verde Islands	98.37	79
147	Niger	104.45	114
146	Equatorial Guinea	105.73	111
145	Nepal	105.98	155
144	Lesotho	106.99	166
143	Haiti	109.91	62
142	Andorra	110.70	198
141	Tahiti	112.10	138
140	Guyana	112.76	109
139	Hong Kong	114.72	160
138	Vanuatu	114.88	168
137	Benin	114.98	78
136	Antigua and Barbuda	115.96	106
135	Burundi	119.22	136
134	Maldives	119.28	164
133	Ethiopia	119.69	119
132	Turkmenistan	120.73	137
131	Fiji	133.29	161
130	Tajikistan	138.75	124
129	Namibia	142.21	117
128	Myanmar	142.90	180
127	Palestine	143.59	154
126	Yemen	143.73	148
125	Togo	145.75	98
124	Canada	148.81	68
123	Liechtenstein	149.84	149
122	Lebanon	150.42	144
121	Libya	150.99	39

 

Analysis

The big story of this set is the great disparity between Libya's 39th ranking in the FIFA formula and 121st ranking in this one.

Libya made one Cup of Nations out of a possible two in the past four years, and failed to get out of the group in that one. Further, they lost out in World Cup qualification during the second round, not even getting to the third. Perhaps 121 is a bit low, though.

Also, Canada fell from 68th in FIFA to 124 in this one. Similar to Libya, their inability to make the World Cup or succeed at the Gold Cup in a relatively weak continent hurt them here.

120-91

Armenia national football team

	Nation	FrankFA Points	FIFA Ranking
120	Faroe Islands	151.46	155
119	DR Congo	154.95	114
118	Guinea	156.19	75
117	New Caledonia	159.10	143
116	Vietnam	162.44	120
115	Malta	162.96	145
114	Senegal	163.10	61
113	Philippines	166.00	152
112	Rwanda	166.70	125
111	Guatemala	166.99	88
110	Kazakhstan	167.50	147
109	Burkina Faso	170.49	87
108	Zimbabwe	173.33	100
107	India	173.65	163
106	Indonesia	174.49	153
105	Malaysia	177.45	157
104	Luxembourg	178.09	110
103	Singapore	178.55	158
102	Mozambique	183.18	107
101	Trinidad and Tobago	188.97	80
100	Morocco	196.30	71
99	Angola	198.92	86
98	Cyprus	202.68	122
97	Thailand	205.94	135
96	Gabon	207.54	45
95	Jamaica	211.12	63
94	Mali	211.73	40
93	Malawi	212.99	93
92	Iceland	213.10	129
91	Armenia	213.29	55

 

Analysis

The big news of this set of nations is again one African team's drop from a relatively high FIFA ranking to this ranking. This time, it was Mali.

Mali appeared in both Africa Cup of Nations, even coming in third in January's tournament. However, they missed out on the World Cup and had poor friendly results.

Hence, they dropped from 40th to 94th. Honestly, the drop seems a bit steep.

In a more understandably large fall, Armenia went from 55th to 91st.

After a poor World Cup qualifying campaign that saw them finish last in their group, the Armenians had a good showing in qualification for Euro 2012. However, they finished third and missed out on yet another major tournament.

Meanwhile, India rose a considerable amount from 163 to 107, mostly thanks to their appearance in the 2011 Asian Cup finals.

90-61

Belarus national football team

	Nation	FrankFA Points	FIFA Ranking
90	Botswana	213.83	113
89	Kenya	214.08	125
88	Tanzania	215.53	127
87	Scotland	215.97	49
86	Moldova	217.09	139
85	Tunisia	218.86	43
84	Panama	220.61	48
83	El Salvador	220.72	67
82	Northern Ireland	222.52	102
81	Syria	224.07	132
80	Wales	226.59	38
79	Georgia	231.62	97
78	Sudan	236.61	105
77	Algeria	237.06	35
76	Uganda	237.09	85
75	Lithuania	237.18	90
74	Macedonia	237.61	103
73	Azerbaijan	238.97	108
72	Austria	241.08	60
71	Bulgaria	243.11	92
70	Israel	246.92	82
69	Cameroon	247.43	59
68	Albania	248.19	75
67	Montenegro	250.58	50
66	United Arab Emirates	251.42	116
65	Latvia	252.51	72
64	Nigeria	253.99	58
63	Finland	258.28	74
62	Bolivia	259.83	83
61	Belarus	263.04	77

 

Analysis

Over the past year or so, Wales has greatly improved in their play and their results. As a result, they have shot up the FIFA rankings, reaching 38th this past month.

However, since their great form has only led them to a more respectable exit from EURO 2012 qualifying, they have only moved up to 80th in these rankings.

Meanwhile, Moldova's respectable nine points in EURO 2012 qualifying made them the highest climber of this set of nations, going from 139th to 86th.

60-31

Republic of Ireland national football team

	Nation	FrankFA Points	FIFA Ranking
60	Oman	265.88	96
59	Belgium	266.15	53
58	Hungary	267.02	31
57	Norway	272.45	24
56	Romania	274.32	52
55	Costa Rica	275.05	57
54	New Zealand	275.60	95
53	China	276.85	68
52	Estonia	280.27	56
51	Uzbekistan	287.90	65
50	Jordan	289.08	84
49	South Africa	295.75	68
48	Bosnia-Herzegovina	296.63	30
47	Zambia	299.73	41
46	Kuwait	301.01	93
45	Egypt	301.93	42
44	Iraq	303.27	81
43	Turkey	304.02	29
42	Saudi Arabia	307.31	101
41	Honduras	314.19	63
40	Ukraine	321.66	46
39	Qatar	322.45	98
38	Bahrain	323.19	103
37	Poland	323.37	54
36	Ivory Coast	324.60	16
35	Slovenia	326.36	34
34	Switzerland	331.73	21
33	Ecuador	337.47	27
32	Slovakia	338.79	44
31	Republic of Ireland	339.84	26

 

Analysis

Even though they don't represent the biggest difference between my rankings and the FIFA rankings, New Zealand's of 54th is the story of this set.

Fresh off of losing in the OFC Cup, the Kiwis rely on their undefeated World Cup and Confederation Cup appearance to establish their spot.

On the other hand, Norway and the Ivory Coast represent the biggest drops of the set.

Despite having not appeared in either the World Cup or EURO 2012, FIFA still has the Norwegians ranked at 24th. This list drops them to 57th.

The Ivory Coast, on the other hand, were in all three of the major tournaments for which they were eligible.

However, a quarterfinal exit in the 2010 Cup of Nations and an elimination from the World Cup group stage saw them fall 20 spots from 16th to 36th.

30-21

USA national football team

	Nation	FrankFA Points	FIFA Ranking
30	Korea DPR	340.01	89
29	Croatia	341.60	9
28	Russia	345.47	13
27	Czech Republic	347.21	18
26	Colombia	352.68	22
25	Serbia	353.39	37
24	Sweden	355.01	17
23	Iran	360.57	50
22	Peru	361.47	32
21	USA	382.92	36

 

Analysis

North Korea are the big movers in this list and there's a reason.

The North Koreans made the World Cup in 2010, but were eliminated from the group stage. Further, they were eliminated from the group stage of the 2011 Asian Cup. Those seem to point to a ranking more along the lines of FIFA's 89th spot, but there's one thing that pushes the North Koreans up: friendlies.

Korea DPR played a vast amount of friendlies over the past four years and won most of them.

This points to some tweaks that need to be made in the formulas, but never fear: North Korea will soon fall, as they have already been eliminated from qualification for the 2014 World Cup.

The next two are points of contention: Croatia and Russia.

While my initial reaction is to say that this is far too low for such talented teams, it must be pointed out that both have vastly under-achieved over the past four years. After all, neither made the World Cup and both were eliminated from EURO 2012 in the group stage.

The next four countries seem pretty well placed, but the last three are surprising.

Iran's jump from 50 to 23 is great, but quite shocking considering the fact that they missed out on the World Cup and were eliminated from the quarterfinals of the Asian Cup.

Peru's positioning makes some sense given their third place finish in the Copa America.

Finally, the United States's trips to both Gold Cup finals and the World Cup Round of 16 coupled with their profitable win over Spain somewhat explains their positioning.

20-11

Chile national football team

	Nation	FrankFA Points	FIFA Ranking
20	Denmark	384.01	10
19	Greece	398.78	12
18	Ghana	400.48	33
17	Venezuela	414.50	47
16	France	420.74	14
15	Mexico	423.21	19
14	Australia	442.07	23
13	South Korea	450.69	28
12	England	455.81	4
11	Chile	474.10	15

 

Analysis:

Denmark's inability to get out of either the World Cup or EURO 2012 group stage makes their position at 20 much more understandable than their FIFA ranking of 10.

Greece made both the World Cup and EURO 2012 in style, yet did not impress at the tournaments. Still, they ended up in the EURO quarters and made their 19th spot well deserved.

To me, Ghana are hugely undervalued in the FIFA rankings. I mean, the Africans were in the World Cup quarterfinals (and probably should have been in the semis) and made the final of the 2010 Africa Cup of Nations. The only real drop is their poor 2012 Africa Cup, where they only made the semifinals. Come on, 18th still might be undervaluing them.

Venezuela hopped from 47th to 17th because of their fourth place finish in the Copa America and their pretty good start to 2014 World Cup qualifying.

From there, France and Mexico seem well placed, with Australia and South Korea representing Asia.

England's 12th place ranking makes a lot more sense than FIFA's ranking them at fourth and Chile's strong World Cup and Copa runs make them 11th.

10. Japan

FrankFA Points: 497.59

FIFA Ranking: 20

 

Analysis

Japan looks to be an up-and-comer heading into the 2014 World Cup.

Their great play at the 2010 World Cup established them as a joy to watch in their run to the Round of 16.

The next year, they captured the 2011 Asian Cup in Qatar.

With rising stars like Shinji Kagawa, expect Japan to make waves in Brazil.

9. Portugal

FrankFA Points: 508.54

FIFA Ranking: 5

 

Analysis

Portugal showed their great talent at EURO 2012 as they came the closest anyone has come to knocking off this Spain side.

In fact, Spain are the only reason that the Portuguese have lost been eliminated from any major tournament in the past four years.

However, they have just been too inconsistent in qualifying, a fact that has dragged their ranking down.

In both qualifying campaigns, Portugal finished second to Denmark and needed a playoff to get to the tournament.

Luckily, they are not grouped with the Danes in 2014 World Cup qualification.

8. Argentina

FrankFA Points: 518.03

FIFA Ranking: 7

 

Analysis

Yes, Messi is one ahead of Ronaldo.

Argentina has been quite impressive over the past year, but their inconsistencies before that have cost them.

Most nations would kill for quarterfinal appearances in both the World Cup and the Copa America, but this is a slump for Argentina.

7. Italy

FrankFA Points: 520.32

FIFA Ranking: 6

 

Analysis

Italy's run to the EURO 2012 final definitely gives them a case for a higher spot.

However, the Italians had quite a turbulent 2010 World Cup, losing out in the group stage to the likes of Slovakia.

Expect the Italians to crawl up the rankings as 2014 qualifying continues.

6. Brazil

FrankFA Points: 544.01

FIFA Ranking: 11

 

Analysis

Just like Argentina, Brazil is in a relative slump with quarterfinal exits in both the World Cup and Copa America.

However, they have been dominating in other matches and still have a Confederations Cup title to their name.

FIFA's 11th ranking seems far too low for these guys.

5. Paraguay

FrankFA Points: 562.85

FIFA Ranking: 25

 

 

Analysis

Here's the shocker of the list.

If I were to ask you where Paraguay should be on this list, chances are you'd tell me around where the FIFA rankings have them, which was 25th.

But think back on Paraguay's past four years.

At the World Cup, Paraguay went out in the quarterfinals to an all-time great Spain in a match in which they were a penalty away from taking control.

At the Copa America, they made it (albeit strangely) to the final before falling to Uruguay.

Since those, Paraguay has not looked like a fifth ranked nation, but according to this formula they still are.

4. Germany

FrankFA Points: 631.96

FIFA Ranking: 2

 

 

Analysis

Germany cannot seem to get over the hump at the big tournaments, but they consistently get themselves deep into tournaments.

A World Cup semi and a EURO semi makes them a shoo-in for the top of any ranking.

3. Netherlands

FrankFA Points: 654.43

FIFA Ranking: 8

 

 

Analysis

Yes, they came unglued in a huge way at EURO 2012.

But a World Cup final appearance and incredible performances in qualifiers keeps the Dutch ahead of their German rivals.

2. Uruguay

FrankFA Points: 664.58

FIFA Ranking: 3

 

 

Analysis

Uruguay's run to the World Cup semifinal in 2010 was surprising.

When they backed it up with the 2011 Copa America title, though, they established themselves as a world great.

Since then, they have continued their great play into World Cup qualifiers.

The only question mark is how the South Americans will deal at big tournaments with Diego Forlan's skills clearly fading.

Still, expect Uruguay to be a contender in Brazil.

1. Spain

FrankFA Points: 843.69

FIFA Ranking: 1

 

 

Analysis

Do I even have to say anything here?

They are not only clearly the best team in the world right now, but the Spaniards are also making a convincing case for the best national side in the world.

Spain are the obvious favorites for Brazil.

 

 

 

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