Why Kobe Bryant's Days as a Top-5 NBA Star Are Over

Kobe Bryant may still be a top-10 NBA star, but his days in the top five are over. Every star eventually fades, and Kobe's brightest days are in the past.

First, let me say what I'm not saying. This is necessary because in the world of the Internet, if you don't explicitly say you aren't saying something, there will be those that feel it is implied, or at least feel the freedom to imply it is your "real meaning."

I am not saying that Kobe is "overrated." He is one of the 10 greatest players in the history of the game. Personally, I think that the whole conversation of "G.O.A.T." can become entirely too rigid with people yelling back and forth, "How can you say Larry Bird is better than Kobe?" and then hurling the reciprocal.

The reality is that, depending on how you define it, there are about three or four players that can be authentically called the greatest of all time: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell. Most would have Jordan at the top, but if you had 1,000 lists from experts, those four names would adorn the top spot in almost all the lists, if not all of them. Throw in Magic Johnson if you want.

After that, there are about a half-dozen names that are in the next tier. Some of these names would be included over some of the names listed above, but few would have them be No. 1. I know in today's world, where nuance is from a dead language, this might be difficult to grasp, but you get my meaning.

For instance, someone might have Larry Bird in their top five, which is reasonable, and drop Wilt down to No. 6, but they wouldn't have Bird as No. 1. These names are the likes of Larry Bird, Oscar Robertson, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Kobe Bryant.

That's not a complete list, but essentially they are the ones who are justifiably in a top-10 list but would be tough to argue as the greatest ever.

Now I believe that Kobe is in that second tier of players, and whether you have him fifth or 10th, to me it doesn't make much difference because, really, there's not a huge amount of difference.

Second, I don't "hate" Kobe. I don't think he's a "ball hog." I actually like Kobe and his game. The reality, though, is that he's past his prime and his game is not as great as it once was.

The truth is that Kobe's production, based on PER, has been in gradual decline for the last several years. Yes, it's gone up and down a bit, but the general trend is pointing down.

In fact, the reality is that over the last three years, Bryant has the eighth-highest PER in the NBA. Here are the top 10 in the NBA since 2009.

Player	PER
LeBron James	30.1
Dwyane Wade	28.0
Chris Paul	26.2
Dwight Howard	25.1
Tim Duncan	23.7
Kevin Durant	23.7
Kobe Bryant	23.4
Dirk Nowitzki	23.1
Pau Gasol	22.8
Manu Ginobili	22.3

Here are the top 10 in terms of Win Shares over the last three years.

Player	WS
LeBron James	54.8
Dwight Howard	41.5
Dwyane Wade	40.7
Pau Gasol	39.8
Chris Paul	39.8
Kevin Durant	36.4
Dirk Nowitzki	34.4
Kobe Bryant	32.7
Paul Pierce	30.2
Chris Bosh	29.6

The question when you look at things isn't whether you can argue that Kobe Bryant is not still a top-five player; it's whether you can argue that he is. He's not in the top five in either PER or Win Shares, and he's trending down.

Four of the players ahead of him—Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade—are all in their prime. Kevin Durant is still improving. Additionally, players like Derrick Rose and Kevin Love, who are behind him over the last three years, would pass him this year according to their own trend lines.

That's at least five players who are better than Kobe right now. Certainly that doesn't mean they're greater, though. Better means where they presently stand. Greater includes their history and legacy. In the same sense that right now Dwight Howard is better than Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant is better than Kobe Bryant.

However, to compare the legacy of Howard or Durant to Duncan or Bryant would be ludicrous.

Is there still something to be said about his experience and championships? Of course there is, but then the mistake is often made of presuming that those things never work their way into the stats. For instance, Kobe still scores adeptly, although the manner in which he scores has changed, depending more on his high basketball IQ and skill in his 30s, whereas he resorted more to pure athleticism when he was 19.

Ergo, that experience is manifested in the numbers to a point. Yes, there's something to be said about the leadership he provides as well, but how much do we make of that? Do we move him up three spots? Four?

There are those who say numbers don't mean everything. I agree, but I also say that platitudes don't mean anything. Mere dismissal of the numbers because you don't like what they say doesn't "prove" anything either. Numbers don't say everything, but they do say exactly as much as they say, and they can't be ignored.

There is no mute button on reality.

Time caught even Michael Jordan, and now it is catching Kobe Bryant. Only six guards in the history of the game have played more minutes than Bryant, and only Jordan has taken more field-goal attempts. Only three guards have taken more free-throw attempts. That's a lot of games, a lot of miles, bumps, scrapes and bruises.

Those things add up. They catch up. The things that make Kobe great are the things that make him less than what he once was. Kobe is no longer one of the top five players in the league not just in spite of his greatness, but largely because of it.