Minnesota Twins: Predicting the Offensive Stats of the Twins Starting Lineup

Minnesota Twins general manager Terry Ryan seems to be done wheeling and dealing for field players to fill out the starting lineup for the 2012 season—unfortunately for Twins fans.

Ryan's additions include outfielder Josh Willingham, catcher/first baseman Ryan Doumit and shortstop Jamey Carroll, though they come while losing the services of outfielders Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel.

With the latest signing of free-agent pitcher Jason Marquis, I estimate the Twins' 2012 payroll to be between $93-$95 million. That leaves Ryan with only $5 million left to make any upgrades to the team.

The hopes of the 2012 Twins appears to be resting squarely on the shoulders of their former MVPs, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. That might be all right if Morneau can find the groove he was in to open the 2010 season. In 81 games he was leading the Twins with a .345 average, 18 home runs and 56 RBI.

It would be great If Mauer can summon the power that earned him the MVP in 2009, when he had career highs with 28 home runs and 96 RBI.

Of course the odds of this happening are extremely slim.

Here's an early look at how the Twins projected starting lineup will perform this season. 

Leading Off: Center Fielder, Denard Span

Denard Span should be feeling some heat heading into 2012. Due to a concussion, he played in only 70 games last season, the fewest since joining the Twins in 2008.

It was an opportunity for Ben Revere to showcase his ability at the major league level. Revere's play sparked plenty of rumors that the Twins might be willing to shop Span.

Span's best two seasons with the Twins were when he needed to prove himself. In 145 games in 2009 when he was splitting time with Carlos Gomez in center field, and played all three outfield positions, he hit .311 and led the league with 10 triples.

In his first two seasons without a starting position, Span played in 238 games, batted .305 with 14 home runs, 115 RBI, and 41 stolen bases.

Since being named the starting center fielder in 2010, his average has dropped to .264 in 223 games with only five home runs, 74 RBI, and 32 stolen bases.

Look for Span to play like he did early in his career.

Span's numbers in 2012:

• .289 batting average
• seven home runs
• 50 RBI
• 30 stolen bases

Batting Second: Second Baseman, Jamey Carroll

Last season, at the age of 37, Jamey Carroll played in a career high 146 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers. A career .278 hitter over 10 major league seasons, Minnesota will be the fourth team for the veteran infielder.

In the last two seasons have accounted for the best two seasons in his career. Carroll batted .290 and had 22 stolen bases, including a career high in 2009. 

Carroll's 2012 stats:

• .280 batting average
• 20 doubles
• two triples
• eight stolen bases
• 23 RBI

Batting Third: Catcher, Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer has plenty to prove in 2012.

I don't think it could have gone any worse for the Twins hometown hero.

After signing a contract extension that pays him $23 million per season, Mauer would suffer a series of ailments, including bilateral leg weakness, a stiff neck, and finished with pneumonia, that limited him to only 82 games—the fewest since a knee injury limited him to 35 games during his rookie season in 2004.

There will be plenty of attention paid to how Mauer rebounds in 2012. I look for the Twins to protect him a little more by having him play several positions to limit the wear and tear on his body.

While Mauer's average will approach his career average of .323, don't expect to see the power that earned him the American League MVP award in 2009 when he hit 28 home runs. 

There's no doubt that Mauer is a great hitter, for average. But when you're getting paid as much as he is, there needs to be more than average. Over the six seasons he played at least 109 games, Mauer has only averaged 76 RBI—too few for the No. 3 hitter in the lineup.

Mauer's 2012 numbers:

• .315 batting average
• 40 doubles
• eight home runs
• 55 RBI

...and that's if he plays in 130 to 150 games.

Batting Cleanup: First Baseman, Justin Morneau

There is no bigger question mark in the Twins batting order than Justin Morneau.

Like Joe Mauer, Morneau suffered a plethora of injuries that limited him to only 69 games in 2011.

From lingering effects of the concussion, to surgeries to repair a herniated disc in his neck, remove bone spurs from his foot, a cyst from his knee, and address a tendon issue in his wrist, Morneau was never healthy.

It will be a stretch to believe that Morneau will be able to contribute anywhere close to the numbers he had in 2010.

The best Twins fans can hope for is that Morneau will be able to play the entire season without injury.

Look for Morneau to struggle early until he can get back into a rhythm at the plate—it will take time and at-bats. 

Morneau's 2012 line:

• .249 batting average
• 30 doubles
• 23 home runs
• 74 RBI

Batting Fifth: Left Fielder Josh Willingham

The signing of Josh Willingham is about as close to Michael Cuddyer as you could get. 

Excluding Cuddyer's defensive flexibility, Willingham will fill in admirably in left field for the Minnesota Twins in 2012.

Comparing the offensive statistics for Cuddyer and Willingham since becoming regulars in the outfield proves favorably. 

Since 2004, Cuddyer has averaged 132 games with a .273 average, 17 home runs, 79 RBI and a .453 slugging percentage.

Since becoming a regular in Florida Marlins outfield in 2006, Willingham has averaged 128 games per season with a .262 average, 13 home runs, 72 RBI and a .487 slugging percentage.

For Willingham, this will be his third team in three year having played for Oakland last season and Washington the year before.

Terry Ryan is hoping Willingham can replicate the type of season he had on Oakland when he had career highs with 29 home runs and 98 RBI. 

Unfortunately there will be a lot of people comparing him to Cuddyer, and watching how the Twins former right fielder performs in Colorado.

Willingham's numbers in 2012:

• .247 batting average
• 24 doubles
• 15 home runs
• 85 RBI

Batting Sixth: Third Baseman, Danny Valencia

This will be a key season for the Twins young third baseman.

When Danny Valencia broke into the starting lineup the second half of the 2010 season, he hit .311 in 85 games with seven home runs and 40 RBI.

He came into the 2011 season with high expectations as the Twins long term answer at third base.

Playing in a team-leading 154 games, he only hit .246, but hit 17 home runs with 72 RBI. 

Look for Valencia's average to settle between his first two seasons, and his powers numbers to be about the same as last season.

Valencia's 2012 numbers:

• 150 games
• .270 batting average
• 32 doubles
• 15 home runs
• 70 RBI

Batting Seventh: Designated Hitter, Ryan Doumit

Look for Ryan Doumit to get plenty of at-bats playing several positions for the Minnesota Twins in 2012. The defensive flexibility the Twins lost when Micheal Cuddyer signed with the Rockies is partially made up with Doumit.

A career .271 hitter over seven seasons for the Pittsburgh Pirates, look for Doumit to match Joe Mauer in home runs in 2012 in fewer games.

Doumit's numbers for 2012:

• 95 games
• .275 batting average
• eight home runs
• 40 RBI

Batting Eighth: Shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Like many Twins last season, Tsuyoshi Nishioka had a nightmare of a season.

After suffering a broken leg in the seventh game of the season, Nishioka was limited to only 68 games.

A batting champion for the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan with a .346 batting average, Nishioka struggled against major league pitching hitting only .226.

The best approach would be to let Nishioka get comfortable in the US by playing at the Triple-A level, but with a $3 million salary, the Twins will be looking for improvement while floundering at the major league level. 

Nishioka's projected 2012 numbers:

• 90 games
• .260 batting average
• 15 stolen bases
• 24 RBI

Batting Ninth: Right Fielder Ben Revere

With only 32 games at the Triple-A level, Ben Revere made the most of the opportunity to fill in for Denard Span last season.

Over five seasons in the Twins farm system, Revere had a .326 career batting average. Last season he finished with a .267 average in 117 games, leading the Twins with 34 stolen bases, primarily as the leadoff hitter.

With the return of Denard Span look for Ron Gardenhire to drop Revere to ninth in order to keep these two next to each other in the lineup. Don't expect him to stay there very long.

The better option would be to leadoff Revere and have Span bat second, dropping Jamey Carroll to eighth and Tsuyoshi Nishioka to ninth.

If Revere's second season with the Twins is as good or better than his first, look for him to move to the top of the order.

Revere's 2012 numbers:

• 145 games
• .280 batting average
• 32 RBI
• 40 stolen bases

So What's It All Mean?

The Minnesota Twins will be an improved team offensively.

The lineup will still be short on power, but with a healthy Denard Span and Tsuyoshi Nishioka, along with Ben Revere, there should be a lot of hit-and-run plays and stolen bases to wreak havoc for the opposing defenses.

The problem will be the Twins will not be able to outscore the opponents, and while the record will improve, it will hover around .500 for the season.

2012 prediction: 83-79, good for third place in the AL Central behind the Detroit and Cleveland.