NFL Playoff Picture: Why New England Patriots Will Win Top Seed in AFC

The New England Patriots are currently sitting atop the AFC Conference with an 11-3 record. 

They are currently up just one game in the conference over three teams. The conference is mathematically far from being decided, but the Patriots are in the driver's seat. 

Each of the three 10-4 teams in the AFC have some serious concerns heading in to the postseason. 

The Houston Texans are still figuring out how to fix their passing game after losing Matt Schaub for the year. They have two winnable games on paper against the Colts and Titans, but both of those teams have the potential to give them trouble in the right scenario. Since losing Schaub, the Texans' scoring has dropped off considerably and they were roughed up by the Carolina Panthers last week. 

It wouldn't shock me to see the Texans drop a game to the Colts or the Titans. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers may have the most complete team in the NFL when they are healthy. However, that is the issue, their starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is battling an ankle injury. All reports are pointing to "Big Ben" resting the final two weeks of the season. 

The Steelers are the only team that would have the tiebreaker advantage over the Patriots as they beat them Week 8. They also have two softball match ups to finish the season with the Rams this week and then finishing up the season against the Browns. With Roethlisberger as their starter I would have no doubt that they win these final two games, but with Charlie Batch as the signal caller I am not so sure.

The Baltimore Ravens may be in the best position to challenge the Patriots for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They have a very winnable game against the Browns this week before having to take on the Cincinnati Bengals Week 17. The Ravens are relatively healthy and could easily finish the year with a 12-4 record.

The major issue with the Ravens or Texans taking over the conference is they would need the Patriots to lose both of their final games this year. While anything is possible, this is just highly unlikely.

New England's offense has been cranking on all cylinders even though that defense continues to struggle against everyone they face. The Dolphins have been playing much better football of late, but we all remember what Tom Brady did to that defense on Monday Night Football the first week of the season.

The Buffalo Bills account for one of the Patriots' three losses this year. However, there is no denying that the Buffalo Bills of Week 3 are much different from the Buffalo Bills of Week 17. I don't believe that anyone will expect the Bills to upset the Patriots in the final week of the season. 

Even with three teams still as mathematical threats to New England's control of the AFC conference, the reality is that they will need a borderline miracle to steal the top seed. The Patriots have one of the best offenses in the NFL and they don't face a defense in either of their last two games that should slow them down. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will continue to score until that final whistle blows on Jan. 1. 

The Patriots as the top seed in the AFC at this point is mathematically still a question mark, but realistically I wouldn't be betting against it.