Patriots vs. Dolphins: Who Holds the Edge in Every Phase of the Game?

After the Pittsburgh Steelers suffered a crushing defeat against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, the New England Patriots are in the driver's seat for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. There are two tough opponents waiting along the way, though, and the Miami Dolphins don't look nearly like the doormat they were earlier this season.

The Patriots are the better team in the record books, but the Dolphins have been resurgent in the second half of the season and actually figure to match up pretty well against New England.

But who holds the edge in every phase of the game? 

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter.

Patriots Passing Game vs. Dolphins Pass Defense

The last time these two teams met, Tom Brady hung a career-high 517 yards on Miami's defense. Needless to say, Brady's pace has slowed, but the Patriots pass attack remains one of the game's most lethal.

The Dolphins defense has improved, but still doesn't have an answer for tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Not to mention, the Dolphins have some issues in the secondary. They've given up 3,466 yards and a defensive passer rating of 84.3 this season, both below average. After a down week against Denver, Wes Welker could jump back onto the map against Miami. 

Outside linebackers Cameron Wake and Jason Taylor are Miami's best hope for slowing down Brady and the pass attack, but New England has handled pass rushers quite well this season. They have stepped up to the challenge against some of the league's best duos, and should be able to keep Brady clean once again. Brady has been sacked just 24 times this season.

Advantage: Patriots

Patriots Running Game vs. Dolphins Run Defense

New England's running game has been a solid complement to their passing game, but hasn't been a big-time threat for big plays.

The Dolphins run defense, on the other hand, has been one of the most stifling in the league. They let up an average of just 3.6 yards per carry, third lowest in the NFL.

Miami could successfully make New England one-dimensional by shutting down the running game, which would improve their chances against the Patriots pass attack. The Dolphins were successful in shutting down BenJarvus Green-Ellis in Week 1, but had a tougher time with Danny Woodhead, who has jumped back onto the map with his performance last week against Denver.

If the Patriots are to get a consistent offensive rhythm, though, it will start with making Miami respect the pass and capitalizing on the opportunities that will create in the ground game.

Advantage: Dolphins

Dolphins Passing Game vs. Patriots Pass Defense

Matt Moore may not be the quarterback of the future, but he is a decent quarterback of the present. His 60.8 completion percentage and 88.7 passer rating are reflective of his efficient style of play this season, and with a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, it looks like he has the recipe for success against the Patriots.

That being said, the Patriots could have more opportunities to get after the quarterback this week against an offensive line that has allowed 46 sacks this season, third most in the NFL. If they're able to get there, they could force some errant throws from Moore or maybe knock the ball loose (Moore has lost five fumbles, and the Patriots have scooped up 10 this season). 

All that being said, New England's defense has gotten by when they force the opponent into mistakes, and Moore hasn't made very many. It could be another long day for New England's pass defense.

Advantage: Dolphins

Dolphins Running Game vs. Patriots Run Defense

Reggie Bush just rushed for a career-high 203 yards, albeit against the Bills' 29th-ranked run defense. That being said, New England just got gashed by the Broncos for 252 total rushing yards, their highest total since 2003 against—you guessed it—the Dolphins. They also gave up 170 yards to a much more conventional Redskins running game two weeks ago.

Bush has yet to prove himself as a consistent back worthy of carrying the load, but he's well on his way this season. The best bet for the Dolphins is to control the ball with long drives, and they could do so against a Patriots defense that gives up 4.6 yards a pop on the ground.

Advantage: Dolphins

Special Teams

Neither team gets a lot of explosive plays out of their special teams unit, and the kickers are virtually the same statistically. The differences lie in the hands and on the feet of the punters.

Dolphins punter Brandon Fields is one of the rare punters that is actually a weapon for his team. He averages 49.3 yards per punt and has pinned opponents inside the 20 on 29 of his 68 punts (42.6 percent). That field position has been a huge help for the Dolphins defense.

Patriots punter Zoltan Mesko has been a capable punter, though he hasn't been called on nearly as much since the Patriots typically score. On 49 punts, he has pinned opponents inside the 20 19 times (38.8 percent) and he averages 45.7 yards per punt.

Advantage: Dolphins

Coaching

Bill Belichick is the great equalizer for New England. Just when it looks like everything is stacked against them, Belichick is able to draw up a game plan that does what's necessary to pick up the win. He will lock minds with interim head coach Todd Bowles, who is nowhere near Belichick's equal in that regard.

That being said, the Dolphins have two good minds on their staff: Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who is familiar with the Patriots from his time with the team, and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who has drawn up some great game plans to help the Dolphins hold their past seven opponents to just under 15 points per game.

In a one-game scenario, though, Belichick has to be the choice. If there's one coach that can get his team ready to execute a game plan, it's him.

Advantage: Patriots

Patriots Key to Victory

Protect Tom Brady

After a slight hiccup midseason in which the Patriots allowed 14 sacks in four games against the Jets, Cowboys, Steelers and Giants, the Patriots have stepped up quite nicely against some formidable pass rushers. They will have their hands full once again, facing Cameron Wake, Jared Odrick and Jason Taylor.

It will be up to the offensive line to keep Brady clean, and if they're able to do so, the Patriots offense should roll once again.

Dolphins Key to Victory

Protect the football

The Patriots have won a majority of their games this season thanks to turnovers from the opposing team. The Dolphins have actually done a fairly good job of protecting the football this season, with just 21 turnovers all year. Matt Moore has accounted for 11 of those turnovers, at a rate of just one per game he's played.

Considering the fact he's carried the ball a career-high 194 times, Reggie Bush's four fumbles and two lost fumbles are impressive. They'll need more of that from both of these guys to come out of Foxboro with a win.

Conclusion

Rarely does a five-win team look as poised to take down an 11-win team as the Dolphins do the Patriots. The Dolphins look to have all the tools, but the Patriots have two great equalizers in Brady and Belichick. 

New England's best bet is to attack the Dolphins through the air early and often, jumping out to a big enough lead that Miami's running game and run defense become obsolete, which would also force Matt Moore to go to the air. Judging by the way New England attacked Denver's up-and-coming defense, I like their chances to do just that.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Dolphins 17