NFL Playoff Scenarios: Patriots Don't Control Own Destiny in Race to No. 1 Seed

The New England Patriots (11-3) are riding high after clinching the AFC East with their 41-23 win over the Broncos, but the ultimate prize is out of their control.

The vaunted No. 1 seed is incredibly important in the playoffs, and right now it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers that control their own fate.

If the Steelers beat the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, they will also be 11-3. The difference is the 25-17 Pittsburgh win over the Pats back in October, which counts as the tiebreaker.

With the Houston Texans (10-4) getting shocked by the Carolina Panthers, it remains to be seen if they can finish strong against the Colts and Titans to pounce on a bye if Pittsburgh or New England loses.

Considering the Steelers finish the season against the Rams and the Browns, the only real chance of a loss will come against the 49ers.

Everything was different less than 24 hours ago before the Ravens were absolutely destroyed by the Chargers, 34-14. Baltimore went from the team controlling their own destiny to the likely No. 5 seed…unless the Steelers lose. Then it’s the Ravens that are in control of the AFC North…but not the No. 1 seed because the Pats (8-2) have a one-game lead on the Ravens (7-3) in that department.

Confused?

I’ll break it down like this: the Pats must beat the Dolphins and Bills at home and hope the Steelers lose once and they are the No. 1 seed.

Considering they lost at Pittsburgh on October 30^th, home-field advantage could be the difference between a Pats Super Bowl and another disappointing playoff exit. Sure clinching the AFC East is nice, but the heavy lifting was yet to really begin.

The 49ers are going to have the entire northeast pulling for them tonight.