Albert Pujols Mega Deal May Net Angels a Title but Is Still Too Big a Contract

The twin signings of both Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson on December 8th, 2011, instantly catapulted the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to the top of the heap in the American League.

Of course, that's just a hypothetical prediction. It's also temporary. There are still plenty of good or even great free agents available on the market.

Even if you were of the opinion that the Angels were at the top of the heap in the American League, you'd be pushing it to suggest they were far ahead of the competition.

That means that another top team could make some trades, sign some free-agent talent and remove the Angels from any sort of hypothetical American League Power Ranking. 

Even if the Angels fulfill the loftiest expectations hoisted upon them in the aftermath of signing two of the league's best available free agents, the Pujols deal may still become a fairly major problem down the road. 

Make no mistake about it. As of now this deal looks good. As of now the Angels really could win the 2012 World Series. 

What about 2016? 

What about 2020? 

Those are valid questions because the Los Angeles Angels are going to be paying Albert Pujols well in excess of $20 million dollars in 2016 and in 2020 and even in 2021. 

It might not be an issue, it might work out fine. Pujols may seamlessly transition from slugging first baseman to slugging designated hitter without so much as a bump in the road. He may continue to hit the baseball at or around his current prolific pace.

For all we know, Albert Pujols' 2018 season might closely resemble his 2008 season. For the record, Pujols' 2008 featured a .357 batting average, 37 home runs, 116 runs batted in and an OPS of 1.114. 

Pujols was only 28 in 2008. So he'll be 38 in 2018. Could Albert Pujols be every bit the dominant slugger at 38 that he was at 28? Sure he could, but it's not likely.

The list of top players who were able to maintain not just good but great numbers into their late 30s is not long. Pete Rose, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Ted Williams all had very impressive seasons at the age of 38.

Make no mistake about it, Pujols is being paid to be great—not good. A .287 average with 24 home runs and 89 runs batted in at 38 is a very impressive season—but it's not worth over $20 million. His current contract isn't just until he turns 38 though. It will last until he's 42 years old.

Perhaps the Angels don't care, perhaps in their mind if they can win one or two World Series rings in the course of the contract, then this will still be worth it. They could be right about that. Establishing a dynasty in Los Angeles would generate plenty of revenue for the Angels.

Yet it's hard not to look at the current Yankee team and their payroll and think about the Albert Pujols deal.

The circumstances are a bit different since Rodriguez plays a more grueling position. Third base is not called "the hot corner" for nothing. Even with Rodriguez's prodigious athletic ability, the prospect of him manning that position without injury or a real drop-off seemed risky when the deal was done.

That risk appears to be in the process of being realized. Alex Rodriguez, since he signed his record contract extension in the winter of 2007, has been revealed as a PED user and has also undergone some serious hip surgery. His prolific 2007 performance in the season leading up the extension has yet to be approached since then. The Yankees have won a World Series though.

Rodriguez will begin the 2012 season at the age of 36. His numbers are still solid, but they're not nearly befitting a man being paid $30 million to play baseball. It also appears that his ability to play third base has been compromised by his hip surgery.

Pujols has been remarkably injury free for most of his career as was Alex Rodriguez when he signed his extension. Things can change quickly though. Pujols seems like a prime candidate to be productive and healthy well into his 30s. Even an eight-year deal would have made sense in my mind.

Ten?

Ten years is a long contract for a young player. Manny Ramirez was in the midst of a prolific career and right in his prime at 28 when he signed an eight-year deal with the Red Sox in 2000.

Pujols is already 32. He's already played in 11 (albeit spectacular) major league seasons. He's a proven winner—having led the Cardinals to three World Series appearances and two victories.

He probably has got a number of great seasons left in him. Not 10 though, probably not even nine. Will it be worth it? Hard to tell, but the past tells us it's unlikely.  

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