MLB Trade Speculation: 15 Deals That Will Happen Between Now and Opening Day

Gio Gonzalez might find that his fate is tied to that of Yu Darvish, so come next week, the Oakland Athletics southpaw could be dealt relatively quickly. That's when the winning bid in the posting process that determines who get exclusive negotiating rights to Darvish will be announced.

At that point, we're off. The key dominoes of the winter have been Albert Pujols (signed last week by the Angels) and Darvish. Once this second keystone tips, ripples will spread throughout the league.

Here are 15 trades that could happen between now and Opening Day.

Chicago Cubs Trade Matt Garza to Texas Rangers for Mitch Moreland, Et Al

This deal is predicated on the assumption that Yu Darvish will land with the Toronto Blue Jays. In that event, I project that the Rangers would sign Prince Fielder and trade for Garza. Mitch Moreland would become expendable upon Fielder's arrival, and along with him, the Cubs would receive minor-league pitchers Robbie Ross and Neil Ramirez.

This deal would be infeasible at the moment. The Rangers cannot deal Moreland and will not part with prospect Mike Olt. If Fielder signs, though, Moreland is free to become part of the package for Garza. The Cubs, under new management this winter and in dire need of a rebuild, would love to pull the trigger on this one.

Oakland Athletics Trade Gio Gonzalez to Cincinnati Reds for Yonder Alonso, More

Since Jason Giambi left, the A's have yet to field a really solid, above-average starting first baseman. But for a blip of Ramon Hernandez overachievement, they have been waiting for a real solution at catcher since Terry Steinbach. They have a chance to leverage Gonzalez into an end to both spates of futility.

Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal would make a fine pair of positional upgrades and long-term options. Within a calendar year, they would each have sewn up starting jobs in Oakland, and each should be an above-average regular for five or six years, at least.

The Reds, of course, would be paying a hefty price for Gonzalez. If they are smart, though, they will look around the NL Central and realize that 2012 could be a cake walk to the postseason. Understanding this, it's okay to trade with the immediate future in mind. That goes double in this case, because both Alonso and Grandal are blocked by superior players. Joey Votto has first base pretty well in hand, while Devin Mesoraco is a slightly better catching prospect than is Grandal.

Oakland Athletics Trade Andrew Bailey to Boston Red Sox for Anthony Ranaudo Plus

If the term "fire sale" is creeping up on you, A's GM Billy Beane is probably thinking, "Welcome to the conversation."

Oakland is in the process of pushing for a new ballpark in San Jose, one that would allow them to become much more viable again in terms of revenue streams and media market. Whether they get it or not, expect them to sell off their most valuable assets (and there are plenty) in the pursuit of a team that can realistically win in 2016 or so.

In this deal, Oakland acquires not only the Sox's top pitching prospect in Anthony Ranaudo, but also a potential outfield option in a few years named Alex Hassan. Both players still need minor-league tuning, but Oakland has nothing but time, and the pressure to keep up with an ever-improving baseball upper class will nudge Boston into this deal.

Los Angeles Angels Trade Mark Trumbo to Milwaukee Brewers for K-Rod and Cash

I can't take credit for this one. Carson Cistulli recommended it on FanGraphs yesterday. The gist is this: Trumbo is now hugely expendable with Albert Pujols in town and the Angels outfield crowded. He's a cheap, team-controlled bat, and the Brewers badly need a first baseman.

Milwaukee also needs to get away from Francisco Rodriguez. They offered him arbitration, not expecting him to accept, but he did, and now they could owe him as much as $14 million. No fair asking the Angels to pay that price, so the Brewers could take on $8-10 million to make this move more fiscally palatable. Rodriguez would be back where it all started, and both sides would be happy about it. The Angels need a bullpen boost, too.

San Francisco Giants Trade Barry Zito to New York Yankees for Hiroyuki Nakajima

No room in the headline, but obviously, there would need to be cash involved in this deal. Zito is under Giants control for two more seasons at the total cost of $46 million. Nakajima cost the Yankees $2.5 million in a posting bid, and could command a Tsuyoshi Nishioka-type deal: three years, $11 million.

To make this one stick, then, the Giants need to pony up $14 million for 2012, $15 million for 2013 and the full $7-million buyout due to Zito in 2014. That leaves the Yankees with two years of Zito at $5 million per year, plus the $2.5 million they paid to negotiate with Nakajima. Throw in a low-level Giants prospect going to New York and this deal will work.

Chicago Cubs Trade Sean Marshall to Toronto Blue Jays for Asher Wojciechowski

The Cubs no doubt love having Sean Marshall on their pitching staff. He's an elite reliever, maybe the best non-starting southpaw in the game. He's also relatively cheap, due just $3.1 million in 2012.

Those qualities might make him popular at home, but they make him thoroughly attractive elsewhere in MLB, too. If the Jays win the Darvish bidding, they should grab Marshall and make themselves a bullpen worthy of true contender status.

In return, the Cubs need not stop with Asher Wojciechowski, though he is a solid pitching prospect. Drew Hutchison is a smaller, lower-upside hurler, but throw him in and the Cubs get just the right blend of risk and reward potential from this deal.

The market for players of Marshall's caliber was set this summer, when Mike Adams merited two strong pitching prospects in a trade from the Padres to the Rangers. If you think Cubs GM Jed Hoyer will have forgotten that deal, think again. He made it, after all. Marshall is of a slightly lesser pedigree, and is under control for just one season, so he will command a slightly less impressive pair of pitchers, but this deal strikes the proper balance.

Chicago Cubs Trade Alfonso Soriano to Baltimore Orioles for Eduardo Rodriguez

This contract seemed immovable until last winter, when the Blue Jays managed to move Vernon Wells' deal. The Cubs will dispose of Alfonso Soriano this offseason, though far less fruitfully.

Look for the Cubs to eat as much as $39 million of the $54 million left on Soriano's deal in this trade with the Orioles, whom they seem to have targeted as a fit to Soriano's skills. The goal is to rid themselves of enough of the deal ($15 million would do it) to make the loss of Soriano and addition of David DeJesus cancel one another out, without getting nothing in return.

The likely scenario is that the Cubs have someone in mind—I chose Rodriguez simply because I have seen him and like the arm. Any deal could also involve the Cubs taking on a bad contract of the Orioles', perhaps that of either Brian Roberts or Mark Reynolds.

New York Mets Trade Jon Niese to Kansas City Royals for John Lamb and More

The Kansas City Royals might be the AL Central favorites in 2012. There is really no reason they shouldn't be. They're a solid arm atop the rotation away at the moment, and they have many options on the table.

The New York Mets are reeling. They're so cash-poor and far from contention that they seem ready to trade some key pieces of the 2011 roster for a chance to compete more seriously in a few years. Jon Niese, who is headed for some nifty arbitration salaries in the near future, could be among the first to go.

In addition to John Lamb, the Royals' best left-handed pitching prospect, the Mets should be able to extract a solid but unseasoned positional prospect from Dayton Moore and the Royals. Elier Hernandez is a good target; a strapping future corner outfielder.

Toronto Blue Jays Trade Mark Teahen to Washington Nationals for Tom Gorzelanny

This one is a non-conventional no-brainer. The Nationals need versatile depth, someone who can play third base, second base and the outfield corners (however badly). The Blue Jays need left-handed pitching help in their bullpen, even if they add Sean Marshall.

This could be the last trade made before Opening Day, as I imagine both players will be available after losing spring-training battles for secondary roles.

Chicago Cubs Trade Jeff Baker to Miami Marlins for Chad James

The Miami Marlins selected Chad James in the first round of the 2009 draft, but he has not done much to reward their investment. Owner of a career 10-25 record and 4.37 ERA in A-ball over two seasons, James is not likely to blossom into much of a pitcher at the big-league level.

That said, he could do it, and that's exactly the sort of risk the Cubs will be looking to take as camps wind down in March and teams get a better sense of their needs. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer will want to move Baker to a team that needs him before the season starts, and the Marlins are a good fit. Baker could change the Marlins for the better with his right-handed bench bat.

Boston Red Sox Trade Darnell McDonald to Los Angeles Dodgers for John Ely

Predicated on the assumption that the Red Sox add an outfielder prior to the start of the season, this deal helps Boston add pitching depth while sending help to a left-field situation the Dodgers are not going to like.

McDonald is better than either Tony Gwynn or Juan Rivera, and when the latter moves in to platoon with James Loney at first base in April, McDonald could share time with Gwynn in left. Actually, with the exception of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, every Dodger is a platoon or pinch-hit candidate, so McDonald would find playing time there.

Meanwhile, the Sox would add Ely, the change-up specialist. His numbers have been hideous for the past few years, but underlying figures suggest bad luck has been afoot, and he has pitched in hitter-friendly Albuquerque a lot the past two seasons. Ely would be the Sox's seventh starter, an option mostly in emergencies and in garbage time if called up during the season. Still, Boston has no need of McDonald, so they might as well insure themselves.

Houston Astros Trade Wandy Rodriguez to Detroit Tigers for Drew Smyly

The Detroit Tigers won the AL Central in 2011, but they must know that their current roster doesn't guarantee them anything in 2012. They have wrestled with some teams in trade talks for higher-profile pickups than Rodriguez, but any of those deals would necessarily have involved top prospects Jacob Turner or Nick Castellanos.

Here is a way around that conundrum. If GM Dave Dombrowski is willing to add a bit of payroll obligation, the Tigers could land Rodriguez for a package headed by Drew Smyly. Smyly is still a talented, valuable pitcher, but the Tigers are less tied to him than to Turner or fellow pitching prospect Andrew Oliver.

Another name the Tigers could toss at the Astros might be Avisail Garcia. A big, athletic catcher, Garcia has power and speed, but is so raw at the plate he is utterly impossible to project for the moment. He's the perfect high-ceiling guy for Houston, and, as a catcher, he's expendable for Detroit.

Philadelphia Phillies Trade Domonic Brown to San Diego Padres for Mat Latos

UPDATE: Mat Latos has been traded to the Cincinnati Reds in a five-player deal.

This will be the blockbuster no one saw coming. It will sneak up and shock everyone, and Ruben Amaro Jr. will just laugh.

Domonic Brown is a fine player, still very much a prospect and a future solid, regular left or right fielder. The Phillies, however, have a short window yet in which to compete and win more titles, and they feel they can ill afford to wait for Brown to harness his tools.

The San Diego Padres have nothing but time. They're eons from contention, especially the way the Diamondbacks and Giants are headed. They have tons of pitching in their farm system, much of it virtually big league-ready, and they need bats like few other teams in baseball. Brown could walk into camp next spring as the projected fifth hitter for San Diego. Latos would replace Roy Oswalt in the Phillies rotation.

Tampa Bay Rays Trade B.J. Upton to Washington Nationals for Adam LaRoche

The Nationals need a center fielder, but the Marlins are going to win the Yoennis Cespedes sweepstakes. That will leave Washington looking to trade, and the Rays will finally ease off the gas and accept a smaller package for B.J. Upton.

Adam LaRoche gets nothing done alone, of course. The money between LaRoche and Upton is about equal, and the Rays do have a need at first base, but the Nationals will also have to throw in Derek Norris, a strong catching prospect, to get this done. The tipping point will come when GM Mike Rizzo realizes the Nationals, who believe powerfully in Wilson Ramos, can live without Norris.

Tampa Bay Rays Trade Jeff Niemann to Chicago Cubs for Marlon Byrd and Cash

The Rays would have liked to shop James Shields, or even Wade Davis, but to do so now would be like selling a house while underwater on the mortgage. It's a flooded market, a buyer's market, and Andrew Friedman knows better than to go against the grain on that front.

Look for this deal to happen in March. It may even come within a week or two of the season opener. Niemann will quickly fall out of contention for the final rotation spot in Tampa, while Byrd will be supplanted (either immediately or in short order) by Brett Jackson in center field in Chicago. The Cubs will kick in the cash necessary to make it an even-money deal, and Byrd will fit nicely into a Rays outfield that currently projects (assuming the Upton trade) to be a bat short.