Bills at Chargers: Week 14 Preview and Keys to the Game

This coming Sunday, a pair of 5-7 teams are squaring off, when the Buffalo Bills travel to face the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. EST.

Both teams took a similar path to get to the 5-7 record. The Bills began 5-2, but then injuries started to mount, and they have been in a free-fall ever since, losing five straight games, all but eliminating them from playoff contention. The Chargers started out 4-1, but then lost six straight games when Philip Rivers started making terrible decisions and coming up with interceptions at an alarming rate. The Chargers won last week and are now tied with the Kansas City Chiefs in the cellar of the AFC West. 

At least the Chargers still have a chance, as they are only two games behind the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders, who are tied atop the division at 7-5. The AFC West is the only AFC division that doesn't have a 9-3 team in first place.

I will be traveling to San Diego to see this game first hand, so check back Sunday evening to see my comments about how the Bills performed.

Playing Now for 2012

If you go up and down the Buffalo Bills roster, you could make a case for certain veterans to be released and others to be retained. You could also do the same thing with the two draft classes that Buddy Nix has orchestrated from the 2010 and 2011 NFL drafts. When you have finished with that exercise, then you need to ask yourself, how many of the players on those two lists are you comfortable with as a starter for the 2012 Bills? Your final answer will tell you how close the team is to being ready for the playoffs.

So, if you are Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix, you want to be using these final four games to see what you have on your hands for 2012. Which players look like they have a chance to truly contribute? Cases in point are Aaron Williams, Brad Smith, C.J. Spiller, Alex Carrington, Danny Batten, Arthur Moats, Kelvin Sheppard, Chris Hairston and Demetrius Bell.

The Bills need to know more about all of the guys I talked about. Can either Bell or Hairston play right tackle, and would either one be an upgrade there over Erik Pears? Can either Batten or Moats start delivering a pass rush? Neither one has shown very much in that department this year. Is Brad Smith able to become a starting wide receiver? He surely has come on very quick in the last two weeks to become a go-to guy for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Is C.J. Spiller really ready to break out like he showed against the Titans? Watch how he runs in San Diego this Sunday on the natural turf will be a good place for further evaluation. Can Carrington make some more plays and get to the quarterback? What about the veterans like Chris Kelsay and Spencer Johnson. Will they make some plays over the final four games, or will this be the swan song for both?

More Injuries to Deal with

It is not sounding good for big tight end Scott Chandler to play this weekend in San Diego. The first play in the second half when Ryan Fitzpatrick hit Chandler with a pass, and he was then engulfed by six Titans defenders before fumbling the ball, was also a play that he was injured on. Chandler suffered an ankle  injury on the play, which might also explain why he coughed up the ball.

Aaron Williams suffered a knee injury in the Titans game, so he probably will not be ready to play this weekend.

The Bills should be getting back Demetrius Bell this week, as he has been able to practice now for a couple weeks, and Gailey wants to see where Bell is with respect to getting over his injuries.

The Chargers have some injuries of their own that they are dealing with. Left tackle Brandyn Dombrowski is out, so the Chargers picked up Jared Gaither off of waivers and he filled in very nicely in their win on Monday Night Football against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

During that game, center Nick Hardwick and linebacker Donald Butler had to leave the game due to injuries, but both returned. We are still awaiting word to see if both are able to play this week.

Chargers Appear to Be Healthy for December Push

The Chargers were without a number of their key offensive players for many weeks throughout the 2011 season. At various times running back Ryan Matthews, tight end Antonio Gates and wide receiver Malcom Floyd have missed time due to injuries.

The Bills didn't catch any breaks on the schedule here, as all three are healthy and playing well. On Monday Night Football, Gates caught six passes for 70 yards, Floyd caught four passes for 108 yards and Mathews rushed 13 times for 112 yards. Vincent Jackson also was heavily involved as he caught four passes for 72 yards and Philip Rivers looked like his old self, completing 22 of 28 passes for 294 yards.

That means that the Bills defense will be tested in both the running game and passing game. You would sure like to have Kyle Williams, Terrence McGee, Shawne Merriman and Aaron Williams available to face the Chargers, but they can't go. Hopefully George Wilson will be over his stinger and give it a go, as the Bills have really missed him lately.

Reflecting on Fred Jackson

As I was doing some research for other stories on Bleacher Report this week, I came upon a statistic that I was not aware of. Even though he has already missed two full games due to being placed on I.R. with his fractured leg, Fred Jackson is still ranked tied for No. 2 in the NFL with 500 yards after the catch.

That is for all wide receivers and running backs in the league. Only Wes Welker has more yards than Jackson. He is tied with Ray Rice for what it is worth, and he will probably be passed by a number of other players in short order.

Not only that, but Jackson is still No. 6 in the NFL for rushing with 934 yards, even though everybody else has two more games than Fred. It just goes to demonstrate how special this 2011 season was for him, and how much he meant to the Bills.

The fact that the offense has started to turn it around again is encouraging, as it must have been very difficult for the offense to function without having Jackson back there for every down. He meant that much to the offense.

C.J. Spiller Showed Great Promise Versus Titans

Now that he has been a member of the Buffalo Bills for 28 games, it wasn't until last Sunday against the Tennessee Titans that I finally saw Spiller run with a level of comfort and confidence that hadn't been previously demonstrated.

Spiller ran with purpose and stopped dancing. He reversed his field, he used his speed, and he seemed to know where he wanted to go with the ball. I am not sure exactly why all of the transformation happened last Sunday, but I am just glad that it happened.

Spiller also was effective several times in pass blocking, which was an area that Gailey has expressed concern over. The fact that Spiller is demonstrating his growth in his second year is a positive sign that he can still develop into a very useful weapon for the Bills.

Clearly, he has a way to still go. I thought that Fitzpatrick hit him with a great pass in the back of the end zone that Spiller dropped. That should have been a touchdown pass. As far as punt returns go, don't get me started. Spiller looks like he has never returned a punt before in his life when he is back there. Instead of catching the ball and taking off, he freezes, looks at what is around him and then tentatively takes off. It appears that he has mentally lost the ability to return punts.

I don't want to be overly critical, but just trying to tell it like I see it. If he returns punts the way that he ran the ball from scrimmage on Sunday, I would be a happy camper.

Is This the Final Four Games for George Edwards as Defensive Coordinator?

There is growing speculation and angst with the Buffalo Bills fans over the job that George Edwards and the defense is doing. While I have been critical of Edwards, it should be noted that there are some positives mixed in with in the negatives. Let's take a closer look at the whole big picture.

The good: During the five game losing streak, the Bills defense has actually allowed less yards than their seasonal average in four of the last five games, during the losing streak. The Bills average giving up 363 yards per game, ranked No. 22 in the NFL. Yardage allowed to the Jets in Week 9 (348), Dallas (433), Miami (242), Jets in Week 12 (318) and Tennessee (317).

The Bills have come up with 22 turnovers on defense, which is just one turnover away from leading the AFC. With a total of 16 interceptions, the Bills are No. 5 in the NFL in that category.

The Bad: The overall defense is ranked No. 22, the pass defense is ranked No. 19 (234 yards per game) and the run defense is ranked No. 24 (129.4 yards per game).The Bills allow 40 percent of their opponents third down chances to be converted, ranking them No. 23 in the league.

The Ugly: The Bills are dead last in the NFL with 17. Just think how bad that number would be if we didn't have the 10 sacks against Washington. The Bills are ranked No. 31 in number of red zone touchdowns allowed per game with 2.4. The Bills are slightly ahead of the Indianapolis Colts, who give up 2.5 touchdowns per game.

My biggest beef has to do with why we can't find ways to get to the quarterback, and how we give up so many red zone touchdowns. In the five game losing streak, here is our red zone defense breakdown: Jets Week 9 scored 3/4, Dallas 2/4, Miami 4/4, Jets Week 12 4/4 and Tennessee 1/3. Not good enough.

Keys to the Bills vs Chargers Game

The Bills offense has turned around for the better, ever since Ryan Fitzpatrick stepped up to take the snap from directly under center Kraig Urbik. Now, Fitzpatrick has to work on the decisions he makes with his passes. His interceptions total has been on the rise lately, and with 14 interceptions on the year, he is ranked as No. 4 in throwing the most picks in the league. Luckily for the Bills, Sunday's opponent Philip Rivers leads the league with 17 interceptions.

Fitzpatrick tied a Bills team record last Sunday by completing passes to 10 different receivers. He will have to continue to distribute the ball this week and take advantage of whatever the Chargers defense is giving him.

The Bills also need to keep a balanced offense with running the ball as well. The Bills abandoned the running game in the second half against the Titans, which was a poor decision, since they were running the ball so easily against them in the first half.

The Bills defense will have to find a way to get to Philip Rivers. If they allow him time to find his many options in the passing game, this could be a long day for the Bills secondary. It hurts to not have Aaron Williams for this game, so probably Leodis McKelvin will have to step up and play some of his corner coverage of the year if the Bills are to win this game.

If George Wilson is healthy enough to go, that would be a boost to the Bills defense. As injured or banged up as the Bills corners are, it might mean the Bills play with three or even four safeties at times, with George Wilson, Jairus Byrd, Bryan Scott and Da'Norris Searcy all expected to see snaps.

The Maturing Steve Johnson

Virtually nothing was said about it because it was so dull or bland, but I am assuming that most Bills fans noted that when Steve Johnson caught a touchdown pass last Sunday against the Titans, he did not go into any sort of touchdown celebration at all. He simply jogged over to the nearest referee he could find, handed him the ball, and proceeded to jog off of the field.

No celebration, no entertainment, no embarrassment, no nothing. Just scored the touchdown and acted like a veteran that had been there and done that. No big deal.

Now while that hurts the fans in terms of the entertainment or fun value, what it probably does is boost Johnson's stock in the eyes of Bills management. It proves that he is capable of learning from his mistakes, and he is not bigger than the team.

As the Bills try to decide which of their many potential free agents they want to retain to be part of the organization going forward, Johnson figures to be a key part of the Bills offense for years to come. I will have absolutely no problem with Johnson scoring about 12-14 touchdowns every year, and simply handing the ball to the referee. That is something that I could get used to and would love every second of it.

Final Thoughts and Prediciton

This is usually the time of the year when the rookies are going to start feeling the effects of the long NFL season, so of particular interest to me will be the play of Marcell Dareus and Kelvin Sheppard. The other Bills rookies have missed substantial time due to injuries, so these are the two guys that might find the sledding a little bit tough over the last month.

The Bills are trying to play for their own self-worth, self-confidence and pride. I am sure the team doesn't want to go out on a nine-game losing streak, but that is a distinct possibility. After the Chargers game, the Bills have two more home games against Tim Tebow and the Broncos, followed by the Dolphins. Then they close up the year on the road against Tom Brady and the Patriots, who will be looking to clinch home field advantage through the playoffs.

With each successive loss, the Bills memory banks will be flooded with thoughts of how to lose instead of finding ways of how to win. This is part of the painful process for teams to go through, in hopes of turning around a losing culture into that of a championship team.

But with each successive loss, the Bills do move closer to a favorable draft spot, which is also part of the reality of the situation. As we get into December, Bills fans will start seeing all of the various college bowl games on air, so please check them out so we can discuss potential draft picks after the season is over.

Final score prediction: Even though the Chargers have a shorter practice week than the Bills do, the Bills are catching San Diego at the wrong time. They are healthy and Rivers will have a big day. San Diego 31 - Buffalo 24. I hope my prediction is wrong. Looking forward to seeing the Bills fans in San Diego.