Why New England Patriots Will Go 3-1 to Finish NFL Regular Season

With 12 games down on the season, the New England Patriots' playoff fate now rests entirely in their own hands. New England can shore up the AFC East with just two wins, regardless of what their division rivals do.

But don't be fooled by the seemingly easy road ahead. Despite that their remaining opponents have a combined 20-28 record, these four games are shaping up to be much more competitive than they looked just weeks ago.

Here's a look at what's to come—and why the Patriots are poised to win three and drop one.

Week 14: The Washington Redskins

This one's an easy pick—the Redskins have amassed four wins all season, and none are against teams over .500.

The rest of the AFC East has already topped the Skins, outscoring them 77-28, and on Sunday, the Patriots face a Washington team lacking left tackle Trent Williams and tight end Fred Davis. Davis, by the way, is averaging 13.5 yards a reception on the season despite having Rex Grossman throwing to him.

On the ground, Washington's biggest offensive threat is Roy Helu, who looked spectacular in the opening drive against the New York Jets on Sunday. Despite the Pats' struggling D, they still rank 10th in the NFL is stopping the rush.

Expect to watch a stellar Pats offense this Sunday—with Tiquan Underwood making a splash to edge Ochocinco out of that No. 3 wide receiver role. I say Pats by 14.

Week 15: The Denver Broncos

There's a reason NBC fought CBS to flex this game to prime time—you know this one's going to be a heart-breaker.

Unfortunately for the Pats, I don't like their chances in Denver. And it's not because I'm afflicted by Tebow-mania.

Sure, Tim Tebow can re-instill faith in God and 1950s pro football, but he's not the full story behind Denver's success—and he's not the reason that Denver will beat the Patriots.

While the Broncos' defense ranks among the bottom of the NFL for yards allowed, they get good hits on opposing quarterbacks—and Tom Brady gets rattled when he takes big hits. Denver ranks fifth in the NFL in sacks with 33 on the season.

Denver's defense also capitalizes on offensive mistakes, turning a third of their interceptions into touchdowns (3 of 9). In two games, Denver went on to win by less than six after its defense took a pick to the house. Whenever the Broncos make a clutch defensive play, it often leads to a crucial momentum shift.

Offensively, the Broncos are ball hogs. Their adherence to the run-game allows for long, drawn out drives that tire out opposing defenses and magnify the mistakes made by opposing offenses.

This will be a problem for Tom Brady and the Patriots, which were tied with the 0-11 Colts late in the second quarter last Sunday after Dan Orlovsky led a ten-minute scoring drive.

History also has a lot to say about this matchup. Since the Brady era began in 2001, the Patriots have gone 2-6 against Denver including playoff games.

Four of those six losses were handed to the Pats at Mile High stadium, proving that altitude is just another hurdle for New England to contend with in Week 15.

Week 16: The Miami Dolphins

Halfway through the 2011 season, the Miami Dolphins were sucking for Luck. Since Week 8, the Fins are 4-1 and would be 5-0 had they not blown a fourth quarter lead in Dallas on Thanksgiving.

Coming off a flight from Denver and a short week, New England will struggle in this game, but they should pull out the win.

Since its turnaround, Miami has scored an average of 27.8 points per game. Matt Moore has done well managing this offense, and New England's defense will be put to the test once again in Week 16.

But the Pats don't have too much to worry about—the Dolphins' defense is vulnerable, ranking 24th in the NFL against the pass.

Tom Brady would have it no other way as the Patriots thrive in the air—with Wes Welker currently leading the NFL in receiving yards.

Still, this game will likely be close most of the way, with New England breaking it open late in the fourth.

Week 17: The Buffalo Bills

The Buffao Bills? Coming to Foxborough? This is looking like another easy pick.

Earlier in the season, networks were salivating over this match up. But after a five-game losing streak, the Buffalo team that opened its season 5-2 to lead the AFC East could drop to dead last with a Week 14 loss and a Dolphin win.

While the Bills beat the Patriots in their first meeting of the season, Tom Brady still threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns. Unfortunately, he also threw four interceptions, costing the Pats the game.

This time around, the Patriots have added advantages. Not only do they get to play at home, but they also face a Buffalo offense lacking Fred Jackson.

Rest assured, Bill Belichick will not allow New England to lose twice to Buffalo. Consider this one a New Year's gift for Pats fans.