Minnesota Twins: Odds for Each Reliever of Making the 2012 Roster

Minnesota Twins general manager, Terry Ryan, should have plenty of opportunities to improve the worst team in the American League. With needs at right field, second base, starting pitching and in the bullpen, almost any move Ryan makes should be an improvement.

The most improvement needs to be made to the Twins pitching staff. With a 4.51 ERA, the Twins bullpen had the worst combined ERA in baseball last season.

Unfortunately, Ryan has already failed to re-sign closer Joe Nathan, who signed a two-year contract with the Texas Rangers, leaving a huge hole at the end of the bullpen.

The Twins have indicated that Glen Perkins, who picked up his first two saves last season, will remain as the their setup man, meaning they're still in need of a closer. At this point the leading candidate appears to be Matt Capps, if the Twins can re-sign him. 

In 2010, when the Twins lost Joe Nathan for the season during spring training, they considered moving Francisco Liriano to closer. Heading into 2012, there are a couple free-agent pitchers with the same first name that Ryan should pursue—Francisco Rodriguez and Francisco Cordero. 

Rodriguez has a career 2.51 ERA with 291 saves over 10 seasons for the Angels, Mets and Brewers.

Cordero has pitched for the Tigers, Rangers, Brewers, and Reds in 13 major league seasons with a 3.17 ERA and 327 saves.  

Assuming the Twins sign one of these three free agents to be the closer, there will still be nine or 10 other positions available. In 2011 the Twins used 18 different pitchers out of the bullpen, 19 if you include the one relief appearance that Michael Cuddyer made last season.

Here's a look at 11 of those pitchers that are currently on the Twins 40-man roster, and their odds of making the Twins bullpen next season. 

Right-Hander Kevin Slowey

Kevin Slowey appeared in only 14 games last season for the Minnesota Twins. He worked his way into Ron Gardenhire's doghouse when he made his demotion to the bullpen extremely difficult.

In his first four seasons with the Twins, Slowey had a 39-21 record with a 4.41 ERA as a starter.

Last season he finished with an 0-8 record and a 6.67 ERA. In 59.1 innings pitched he gave up 10 home runs, resulting in a 1.52 home run per nine innings pitched—the second highest among Twins pitchers.

The only chance that Slowey has of making the 2012 roster will be as a starter, and the odds of that happening are pretty slim.

Odds: 10,000 to one

Left-Hander Scott Diamond

The Twins originally selected Scott Diamond as a Rule 5 draft pick from the Atlanta Braves. After suffering a cut on the thumb of his pitching hand, the Twins made a deal with Atlanta to keep the left-handed Diamond. 

The Twins traded right-handed pitcher Billy Bullock, a 2009 second-round draft pick, to Atlanta. In three minor league seasons, Bullock was used exclusively as a relief pitcher. 

In return the Twins received a pitcher who made 97 starts in 99 appearances in the minor leagues. Over four seasons Diamond has a 32-34 record and a 3.77 ERA.

Last season Diamond was called up to the Twins and made his debut on July 18. In seven starts he went 1-5 with a 5.08 ERA.

Projected to be a starter, there's virtually no chance that Diamond will make the Twins starting rotation out of spring training.

Odds: 10,000 to one

Right-Hander Kyle Waldrop

The Twins drafted Kyle Waldrop with their first-round draft pick in 2004. He made his major league debut on September 5th and appeared in seven games for Minnesota.

In seven minor league seasons Waldrop started 90 of 257 games. The last two seasons at Triple-A he has a 10-8 record with five saves and a 3.19 ERA.

Waldrop will be a long shot to make the Twins roster out of spring training, but will probably see some action with the Twins later in the season.

Odds: 1000 to one

Right-Hander Lester Oliveros

Lester Oliveros came to the Twins as part of the Delmon Young trade with Detroit. Signed as an amateur free agent in 2005 by the Tigers, Oliveros has been used exclusively as a reliever in the minor leagues.

In six seasons, Oliveros made two starts in 180 games. 

He made his debut with the Tigers on July 1st this past season. Between the Twins and Tigers, he appeared in 19 games, pitching 21.1 innings with a 4.64 ERA. The problem is he has almost as many walks (11) as strikeouts (13).

He will need a little more work before making the Twins bullpen, but if general manager Terry Ryan doesn't make any deals to bolster the bullpen, he might get a shot to earn a spot for the Twins.

Odds: 1000 to one

Right-Hander Jim Hoey

Jim Hoey was one of two pitchers the Twins received in a trade with the Baltimore Orioles for J.J. Hardy.

The hard-throwing right-hander had not pitched in the majors since 2007 when he appeared in 23 games for the Orioles.

Hoey opened the 2011 season pitching for the Red Wings in Rochester. In 33 games he had a 1-3 record and nine saves with a 3.83 ERA pitching for the Twins Triple-A club.

In 26 games for the Twins he had a 1-2 record with a 5.47 ERA.

If Hoey can improve his control, there's a chance he could make the roster in April.

Odds: 50 to one

Right-Hander Jeff Manship

Over the past three seasons Jeff Manship has split time between the Minnesota Twins and the Rochester Red Wings.

A 14th-round draft pick of the Twins in 2006, Manship has pitched slightly better while with the Twins top affiliate than at the major league level. 

Since 2009 he has an 8-12 record at Triple-A, appearing in 38 games with 29 starts. Manship has a 4.46 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.

Over the same period of time with the Twins, he has appeared in 29 games with six starts. He has a 3-2 record with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP.

Early in his minor league career the Twins used Manship exclusively as a starter. After making only three starts total last season, the plan appears to be to move him to a relief role.

Manship is still a work in progress.

Odds: 50 to one

Right-Hander Alex Burnett

Right-hander Alex Burnett, a 12th-round draft choice of the Twins in 2005, pitched 50.2 innings in 66 appearances for the Twins in 2011. 

A converted starter, Burnett started 73 of 75 games in his first four minor league seasons. Since 2009 he has not started a game at any level.  

After finishing the 2011 season with a 2-5 record and a 5.51 ERA, he will need to pitch a whole lot more effectively if he plans to make the Twins in 2012. 

Odds: 25 to one

Right-Hander Anthony Swarzak

In 2011 Anthony Swarzak filled the same role that Brian Duensing had in 2010, just not to the same level of success.

Swarzak made 27 appearances for the Twins in 2011, making 11 starts. He finished with a 4-7 record with a 4.32 ERA.

In eight minor league seasons, the Twins second-round draft choice has started 149 of 152 games he's pitched. In 816.1 innings pitched he has a 3.97 ERA with a 52-49 record. 

Swarzak could be on the brink of breaking into the Twins rotation, and depending on the moves Terry Ryan makes to improve the rotation, he could challenge for the fifth starter role.

Having demonstrated the ability to come out of the bullpen, or take an occasional turn in the rotation, Swarzak is the kind of pitcher that Ron Gardenhire likes to have available. The problem is, he may be competing with Duensing for that role. 

Odds: 10 to one

Left-Hander Jose Mijares

Since making his debut with the Twins in 2008, Jose Mijares has been the Twins left-handed specialist. He took over the role in 2009 after Dennys Reyes left the Twins after three seasons.

In four seasons with Minnesota, Mijares has a 3.16 ERA in 186 games. In 2011 he made 58 appearances with a 4.59 ERA.

The only way he doesn't make the Twins roster in 2012 is if the team makes a move and trades him.

Odds: five to one

Left-Hander Brian Duensing

In 2011 left-hander Brian Duensing made the jump from long reliever to starter. He finished the year 9-14 with a 5.23 ERA.

He tied fellow starter, Nick Blackburn, with the highest number of home runs per nine innings pitched at 1.2.

Look for the Twins to move Duensing back to the bullpen where he was very successful in 2010. He started the year in the bullpen, and finished it in the rotation with a 10-3 record and a 2.62 ERA in 53 games and 13 starts.

Odds: None—Duensing makes the Twins, the only question may be if he gets another shot at the starting lineup. 

Left-Hander Glen Perkins

Glen Perkins was the Twins first-round draft choice of the Twins in 2004. 

The former University of Minnesota pitcher from Stillwater, Minnesota made his major league debut September 21st, 2006.

Brought up as a starter, Perkins fell out of the rotation in 2010, making only one start that season. He was able to make a comeback in 2011 out of the bullpen, earning the setup role.

Making 65 appearances out of the bullpen, Perkins finished with a 4-4 record and two saves with a 2.48 ERA.

With the departure of closer Joe Nathan, signing a free-agent contract with the Rangers, there has been some speculation that perhaps Perkins could fill the void.

General manager Terry Ryan has indicated that Perkins is not ready to take over that role and would prefer someone with closer experience. 

Odds: Perkins makes the Twins, probably as the setup man.

What the Bullpen May Look Like

Based on the pitchers the Twins have on their 40-man roster, here's what the bullpen will look like if general manager Terry Ryan doesn't make a whole lot of moves to reinforce the pitching staff. 

Right-handers

Lester Oliveros or Jim Hoey

Alex Burnett

Anthony Swarzak 

Left-handers

Jose Mijares

Brian Duensing

Glen Perkins 

Closer

To be determined.

That gives the Twins seven relievers. Along with five starters, the Twins will open the season with an 12-man pitching staff.

Now, start hoping that Terry Ryan makes the right move to secure a reliable closer and add a veteran to the bullpen that can make 70-plus appearances like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier did in 2010.