Matt Garza or Gio Gonzalez? Who Would Be a Better Fit in Boston?

The baseball offseason isn't just a collection of free agents signing lucrative deals with new or their existing teams. There are always a few surprising trades. Sometimes it's a player who was being actively shopped in the previous season, such as Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox or Johan Santana to the Mets. 

Sometimes it's a player who wasn't on the market the previous season. Curtis Granderson being dealt to the Yankees following the conclusion of the 2009 season was not something people were discussing a week before it happened. 

Currently, there are two high-profile starting pitchers who appear to be available to any team if the right mix of prospects can be put together.

Matt Garza is a 28-year-old right-handed starting pitcher who is currently the single most valuable available chip in the entire Cubs organization as far as trade potential goes. Shortstop Starlin Castro would be bigger, but he's not an option for the team to deal.

Gio Gonzalez is a 26-year-old left-handed starting pitcher for the Oakland A's. The A's, who have a long and storied history of both producing and trading top pitchers, are clearly not interested in changing that label. Gonzalez isn't just a young lefty, he's a young lefty that gets a lot of strikeouts. 

As everyone is aware, the Boston Red Sox are a team in search of some pitching, starting pitching in particular. The Red Sox limped to the finish of last season starting pitchers such as Andrew Miller, Kyle Weiland and Erik Bedard. None proved ready to consistently produce in Boston.

With John Lackey out for the entire 2012 season and Daisuke Matsuzaka out until after the 2012 All-Star break, the Red Sox currently have only three sure-fire starting pitchers lined up for next season: Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester.

After that, it's all speculation. Alfredo Aceves looked good at times last year, maybe Daniel Bard could start? Is Felix Dubront finally ready for a full season of major league starting?

Boston is likely to explore all these options but they're also likely to try and fill one of those two open rotation spots with someone who offers a bit more certainty and a higher ceiling as well.

Both Gonzalez and Garza will cost the Red Sox quite a bit in prospects. That doesn't mean that the deal won't be worth it.

By acquiring either of these pitchers the Red Sox would be getting a player who is not just talented but also either approaching or in the prime of their careers. Who's likely to be better in Boston though? In addition, which one will be a better value for the Red Sox?

Gonzalez is certainly an attractive piece of trade bait. At 26, he's just beginning to come into his own. Last season he had career numbers in earned run average at 3.12, wins at 16 and strikeouts at 197. Gonzalez also earned his first All-Star berth as well.

Oakland is looking to cash in on Gonzalez's fine season by dealing him even though he's not a free agent until after the 2016 season. That means that Gonzalez is going to be the rare relatively affordable starting pitcher for the next four seasons. Why would Oakland deal him then?

Gonzalez, in spite of all of his potential and talent, does have a very real flaw in his game: walks. In fact, last year Gonzalez led all American League pitchers in walks with 91. In a spacious hitter-friendly ball park such as the one in Oakland, those walks are bad but they won't always result in disaster.

In Fenway Park, that might be a bit different. In addition, Gonzalez will be spending a considerable amount of time pitching to another lineup tailored to take advantage of walks and in another stadium tailored to favor offense. Gonzalez, in spite of his career year in 2011, had an earned run average of 6.35 in Fenway Park last year. In Yankee Stadium, it was worse at 11.55.

Those are both small sample sizes, but even when a three-year split is looked at, the numbers come out to 5.63 in Fenway and 5.56 in the Bronx. Those are the type of numbers that have to give new Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington pause.

Add in that when the Florida Marlins recently inquired about the cost of acquiring Gonzalez, they were told that either Mike Stanton or Logan Morrison  would need to be included in a deal, and all of a sudden it looks unlikely that Gonzalez will be in a Red Sox uniform in the near future. It's even worth asking if he's the right fit for that uniform regardless of cost.

Garza is a bit different. At 28, he's older and he'll be a free agent two years earlier following the 2014 season, but his resume is more impressive. Garza has been through the American League East battles. He spent three seasons as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays and was a key member of the 2008 team that beat the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS and went to the World Series. In fact, he was the MVP of the ALCS, going 2-0 with an earned run average of 1.38 and the series-clinching victory in Game 7.

Garza has pitched well in and against the American League East. There's another compelling reason for the Red Sox to pursue Garza as well, and that's the cost. The Sox already have accrued some credit in Chicago. The compensation for allowing former general manager Theo Epstein to get out of his contract in Boston and take the Cubs job has yet to be settled.

When compensation was first discussed, Garza's name came up and it was quickly dismissed as being too high a cost. Garza won't be sent to Boston without the Red Sox throwing some more prospects into the mix, but with commissioner Bud Selig wanting to get the i's dotted and the t's crossed on the Theo deal, there may be momentum in packaging a few prospects and sending them to Chicago in exchange for Garza and Theo.

It wouldn't be a normal type of trade, but if Garza is mowing down hitters for the Red Sox next summer, no one will care.