Bills vs Dolphins: Week 11 Preview and Keys to the Game

This Sunday, November 20, the Buffalo Bills continue their road trip when they visit the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East division rivalry game. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST, and the game will be broadcast by CBS.

This is a game between two teams going in opposite directions. The Bills, at 5-4, are one game out of first place in the AFC East and have a two-game losing streak. The Dolphins are 2-7 and are in the midst of a two-game winning streak.

This game is in Miami, but don't think that the Dolphins have a huge home field advantage. Out of their last 14 home games, Miami's record is 2-12. Home field advantage? I don't think so. In 2011, the Dolphins are 1-3 at home and the Bills are 1-3 on the road, so something has to give.

The Dolphins did win their last home game, and they are definitely playing better football. They are actually reminding me very much of where the Bills were a year ago. They started out losing their first seven games, and after bottoming out are now learning how to win. They overwhelmed Kansas City on the road and hammered Washington, which is similar to the Bills results against those teams.

The Bills are coming out of a two-game funk on offense, and need this win to give them any kind of realistic hope at staying in the AFC East division race.

Bills Health and Roster Moves This Week

As Bills fans have come to expect, the longer the season goes, the more injuries continue to pile up. The 2011 season is nothing new, as the Bills have now lost Eric Wood and Chris White to the season-ending injured reserve list.

When you look at the total number of players on I.R., you see some pretty good talent. Wood, White, Roscoe Parrish, Kyle Williams, Marcus Easley, Shawne Merriman and Reggie Torbor. Hopefully that is the end of Bills going on the list, so let's keep them crossed that it stays right there.

Bills had a fairly active week for roster moves. The team was down two players due to losing Wood and White, so they activated safety Joshua Nesbitt from the practice squad and signed defensive end Kyle Moore to the active roster. Nesbitt will fill in for George Wilson on special teams, as Wilson is looking doubtful for this week.

Moore had been on the Detroit Lions' practice squad, so he must stay on the Bills active roster for at least the next three games. He was a fourth-round draft pick by Tampa Bay in 2009.

Steve Johnson, Spencer Johnson and Demetrius Bell all missed practice time this week and are questionable for Sunday. 

The only Dolphins player that was listed as questionable was tight end Anthony Fasano. The Dolphins brought in free agent kickers this week, so Dan Carpenter may be nursing an injury as well.

Bills Need to Move Some Starters Around

George Wilson suffered a stinger in the Dallas game, so he is looking doubtful for Sunday. If he can't play, the Bills will go with a combination of Bryan Scott and Da'Norris Searcy to replace him. Wilson has been making the coverage calls in the secondary, so that responsibility will probably go to Jairus Byrd. 

The crazy season for Andy Levitre continues. He started the year as the highest-rated performing guard by Pro Football Focus, only to see the Bills shift him over to left tackle when both Demetrius Bell and Chris Hairston went down with injuries.

After playing three successful weeks at left tackle, the Bills now need Levitre to play center in place of Eric Wood, who is lost for the rest of the year. The Bills for now will have to insert Chad Rinehart at left guard and think that Hairston is healthy enough to resume playing left tackle. Bell returned to practice, so he might be an option if something happens to Hairston.

Is there any position that Levitre can't play?

The need to continually shift players around makes it difficult for the offense to stay cohesive. Levitre now must assume all of the assignment calls that Eric Wood typically makes at center, which is something that might lead to a few blown assignments—especially when you are asking Hairston to face off against a talented pass rusher like Cameron Wake. In addition, the Bills will need to hope for clean ball exchanges between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Levitre.

For a team that is in need of a win, this is a bad time to start asking new players to take on all of these key communication roles they are not accustomed to doing.

Current Bills Practice Squad

With all of the roster movement that has gone on this season, you might not be aware of who is currently on the Bills practice squad. We have already seen quite a few players make the jump from the practice squad to the active roster in the past two seasons, so it is always a good idea for Bills fans to know who is on the group.

Two defensive tackles: Lionel Dotson and Jay Ross

Two wide receivers: Kamar Aiken and Tim Toone

Two defensive backs: Doyle Miller and Mana Silva

Two offensive linemen: Michael Jasper and Thomas Welch

Interestingly enough, the Bills do not have any linebackers on the practice squad. That usually seemed to be a staple for the Bills, but they still have a quartet of young linebackers on the roster in Kelvin Sheppard, Antonio Coleman, Arthur Moats and Danny Batten.

Aiken and Jasper have been there all season and might make it up to the active roster before the season is over, based on injuries and performance issues.

Can the Bills Fix Their Problems on Offense?

As we begin to move into the final seven games of the 2011 schedule, the Bills offense has already gone through a series of highs and lows this year.

In the last two losses, the Bills only managed to score a total of seven points in the first half of those games combined. The offense just can't afford to start out that slow anymore.

The offense is either becoming too predictable for defensive coordinators to figure out, or the Bills need to introduce some new plays for people like C.J. Spiller or Brad Smith. I was trying to think of the last time the Bills used any gadget or trick plays, and that is another area that could lead to them being less predictable.

I thought I would take a look back at the Bills season to see if there were any interesting trends by breaking down the scoring for all four quarters. The cumulative results are as follows:

First quarter: Bills have outscored opponents 42-38.

Second quarter: Bills have been outscored 66-69 .

Third quarter: Bills have outscored opponents 55-50.

Fourth quarter: Bills have outscored opponents 66-61.

So, the Bills are tied for scoring the most points in the second and fourth quarter (66) while they score the fewest points in the first quarter (42).

The defense gives up the fewest points in the first quarter (38) while they are fresh. But in the second quarter, they give up the most (69) as teams are starting to figure out what the defense is doing to them.

What Is Going on with the Bills Secondary?

The Bills secondary has been solid all year at coming up with interceptions, either by taking advantage of poorly thrown passes or by coming up with deflections. They are also usually a solid tackling group, and the hitting of Jairus Byrd and George Wilson has been a key part of the defense.

However, when it comes to making a play on the ball, I have a problem with the way the secondary is trying to defend. The vast majority of the time, the defensive back does not have his head positioned to see the ball coming.

It is one thing to have your back to the quarterback and focus on the receiver to see when he is starting to react to the ball coming. Then the defensive back can turn his head and try to pick up where the ball is, so that he can make a play on the ball.

If you think back to the game against the Giants, that is exactly what corner Corey Webster did, and his ability to turn and see the ball resulted in two interceptions against Ryan Fitzpatrick. From Drayton Florence, to Leodis McKelvin, to Terrence McGee, the Bills aren't in position to make a play on the ball because they don't see it and they don't know when it is coming.

Relying on reacting to the receiver isn't working. It is also resulting in a number of key pass interference calls that are proving to be very costly. If you watch the better defensive backs around the league week in and week out, (Darrelle Revis comes to mind) they are always aware of where the ball is. I know I am harping on this, but this is fundamental pass coverage 101, and the Bills aren't executing.

I have also witnessed too many soft cushions where we are giving up easy first downs when it is clear that the Bills could be trying to come up into press coverage to prevent an easy first down conversion.

Brandon Marshall Will Need to Be Contained

Brandon Marshall is the No. 8 wide receiver in the NFL this year. He has three games with at least 100 yards, and has been the leading Dolphins receiver in every game except one.

That is what a number one wide receiver should do. Be consistent. Find ways to get open when the defense is designed to stop you or at least slow you down.

The Bills, on the other hand, spread the ball around. So far this year, only Donald Jones has topped the 100 yard mark and that was just barely (101 yards). Jones has been the leading receiver twice, as has Fred Jackson. Steve Johnson has been the leading receiver for three games, and David Nelson once. Nelson and Johnson were tied as leading receiver for one game.

The Dolphins have watched Matt Moore come on each week as the starting quarterback, when he replaced the injured Chad Henne. In the last two games, Moore has found Marshall for 106 and 98 yards, so you know where he wants to go with the ball.

AFC Race and AFC East Races Are Still Open

Things just got a little bit more interesting for the AFC overall and specifically for the AFC East, thanks to the Thursday night game where Denver upset the New York Jets. Both teams are now 5-5, so if the Bills can win on Sunday, they move to 6-4 and have a chance to put some distance between them and the Jets with a little win streak.

In the last five trips to Miami, the Bills have won three times (2006, 2007 and 2011). All three wins were generally lower scoring games, 17-14, 13-10 and 16-6. The two losses were more blowouts, as the Dolphins prevailed 38-10 and 25-16.

So, if the Bills can find a way to keep the Dolphins offense contained, I like their chances to come out with a win.

The Bills need their defense to revert back to earlier-season form, when they were creating more turnovers and giving the offense better field position to work with. In the losses to the Cowboys and the Jets, the Bills offense was usually starting each drive from their own 20 yard line or worse.

We don't know if we will see him playing on Sunday, but ex-Bills QB J.P. Losman is now the backup at Miami to Matt Moore. It is interesting to see ex-Bills popping up around the AFC East, as the Jets have Aaron Maybin, Jim Leonhard and Shawn Nelson.

Inside the Numbers: When the Bills Have the Ball

If there is a game when Ryan Fitzpatrick feels the need to go deep with the ball, or throw it up there and let his receivers make a play on the ball, it should be this Sunday. The Dolphins have a suspect secondary, and the stats bear it out pretty strongly.

The Dolphins defense is tied for last in the NFL with only four interceptions on the year. In addition, the Dolphins are ranked dead last in the NFL at defending passes with just 27 on the year. Both of those stats should be music to Ryan Fitzpatrick's ears.

Not only do the Dolphins have to be concerned about the lack of plays coming out of their secondary, but they also have to account for the NFL's leading rusher in Fred Jackson. Jackson currently averages 101.9 yards per game, and has a slim lead on LeSean McCoy of the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bills offense is No. 14 in the NFL averaging 357.7 yards per game. The Dolphins defense is No. 20 in the NFL, allowing 361.4 yards per game. If you split the difference, the Bills would be happy with 359 yards of offense on the road.

The Bills are averaging 25.4 points per game, while the Dolphins are allowing 19.8 points per game. The Bills are converting 39.3 percent of their third downs, while the Dolphins defense allows 30.1 percent of third downs to be converted.

The Bills had been leading the NFL in red zone offense, but are just 30 percent in their last three games, which has now dropped them down to No. 4 overall, converting on 61.2 percent of their red zone chances.

Inside the Numbers: When Miami Has the Ball

What a difference a year makes. The Bills will not be seeing Chad Henne, Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams this weekend. They will be seeing plenty of Matt Moore, Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall and Daniel Thomas.

The Dolphins offense is No. 19 in the NFL, averaging 320 yards per game. The Bills defense is No. 29, allowing an average of 386.9 yards per game. The Dolphins are scoring an average of 17.6 points per game, while the Bills defense allows an average of 24.2 points per game.

The Dolphins are converting 30.1 percent of their third downs on offense, which is No 30 in the NFL. The Bills defense allows 42.7 percent of third downs to be converted, which is No. 26.

The Dolphins aren't very good in the red zone, as they only score on 43.33 percent of their chances, which is good for No. 27 in the league. Of course, Dallas was even worse but they had no problem in the red zone against the Bills defense last Sunday.

Final Thoughts and Prediction

Chan Gailey needs to snap the Bills out of their current funk. The funk has extended to Ryan Fitzpatrick, the offense in general, Leodis McKelvin, Brad Smith and C.J. Spiller.

The Bills are No. 2 in the AFC in regards to turnovers and they have a plus four margin. The Dolphins are tied for No. 13, and their margin is minus eight. So, clearly the Bills have been taking better care of the football.

The Dolphins actually appear to be favored in this game by one point as per the latest line posted at ESPN, so the Bills will have a certain degree of pressure off of them, which may be a good thing. Steve Johnson has been hoping the Bills would return to being a looser team and start to have fun again. It is hard to have fun when you see starters dropping to the I.R., but somebody will need to step up and make an impact.

The younger players on the Bills are getting valuable experience through all of these games, and that will help them and it will help the team going forward.

I like the Bills to win this by a touchdown, with Fitzpatrick having a bigger passing day than he has been experiencing lately.

Final score prediction: Buffalo Bills 24 - Miami Dolphins 17