Week 9 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Red Light/Green Light

Allow me to take a quick poll:

If you had the option, which would you choose to do?

1) Go to the gym or eat a Five Guys Cheeseburger?

2) Pay $100 to go to your favorite football team’s home game or invest $100 into a mutual fund?

3) Sit on the couch and watch NFL Live or wash your significant other’s car?

If you’re anything like me, you probably chose cheeseburger, football game, NFL Live.  And it’s not that those are bad things. It’s just that each of these things pay immediate benefits, whereas the other options are ones which a month or a year from now, we would be really happy we chose to go with (as they translate to a buff “bod,” being rich, and satisfaction with your relationship).

But looking into the future isn’t easy.  It takes time, focus, and discipline – things we unfortunately lack the majority of the time.

Well, maybe it’s time we start looking into the future a little more-at least when it comes to fantasy football.  You see, now is the time of year when we are just a few weeks off from the start of fantasy playoffs, and as a result, our waiver pickups could truly make or break our seasons. Especially if you are in a dire situation and can’t afford to lose another game, picking guys up just because they had a breakout week is not worth it.

Therefore, I think it’s wise to start considering each player’s remaining schedule, deciding who has easy matchups and who has difficult ones, in addition to all the other intangible things we consider. If we do, it may just be enough to catapult us forward with a lot of momentum entering Round 1 of the playoffs.

Just as a reminder, my Red Light players are those that I think are in the “one–week wonder” category.  As such, you should stop dead in your tracks on them (bench or even drop).

My Green Light players are the guys who I think carry good value the rest of the year.  As long as you don’t have the dream fantasy team already, without hesitation you should charge ahead with them (pick up and/or start).

I will finish with some Yellow Light players–those guys that I am still on the fence about, but may be worth a look, especially if you are really hurting for ideas.

With that said, here are this week’s picks.

Red Light

James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers

Jones has scored four touchdowns in his last five games on his way to fantasy relevance.  Any owners who have started him the past five games surely haven’t been disappointed. But I caution any current owner going forward: Jones will not produce this consistently. Notice that since Jones’s blowup game against Atlanta in Week 5, he has received only one target in two separate games (they just both happened to go for touchdowns).  If you are relying on Jones to score a touchdown on every ball thrown his way, you are destined for fantasy failure.  I’d only start Jones if Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson suffers an injury, going forward.

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Cleveland Browns

Ogbonnaya had an opportunity to burst onto the fantasy scene with both Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty suffering multi-week injuries.  Ogbonnaya started this past week against the Texans, but his performance was anything but fantasy worthy.  The second year pro lost a fumble on his first carry of the game, and rushed 13 times for a measly 28 yards.  While the Texans have a pretty stout run defense, Ogbonnaya’s 2.2 yards per rush pales in comparison to the 4.2 yards per rush Houston had given up to its previous opponents. This makes what should’ve been an attractive matchup against the Rams this week for Ogbonnaya one to avoid.  Beyond this week, the Browns rushing schedule gets very tough, with matchups versus the Jaguars, Bengals, and Ravens.  Ogbonnaya can be safely dropped.

Chris Ivory, RB, New Orleans Saints

Chris Ivory returned from the PUP list for the Saints on Sunday, and performed reasonably well with 15 carries for 67 yards.  Ivory’s opportunity stemmed from Mark Ingram’s heel injury, and it is not certain when Ingram will return.  However, given the Saints tendency to be pass-happy, and the fact that Sean Payton is completely unreliable when it comes to giving his running backs consistent opportunities (save for Darren Sproles), I wouldn’t get too excited over Ivory unless Pierre Thomas got hurt as well. I’ve “been there, done that” too many times and not falling for it again.

Green Light

Bengals Defense

Now is the perfect time to pick up the Bengals defense. They are coming off a below average performance versus the Titans, and their current owners may be ready to cut them loose.  They are only owned in 69% of leagues (ESPN), so it appears they can still be “had” off the waiver wire, too.  The reason they are a sneaky pickup right now is that three of their next seven matchups are a fantasy owner’s dream.  In Week 12, Cincinnati plays Cleveland, who has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to defenses this year. When it comes to playoff time (Weeks 15 and 16) Cincinnati plays the Rams and the Cardinals, who have allowed the most and the tenth most fantasy points to defenses, respectively, this year.  I always like to stash a good defense for the playoffs.

Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Crabtree has started to finally come into his own the past few weeks as Alex Smith’s go-to target.  In fact, in four of the 49ers past five games, Crabtree has caught five or more passes for 50 plus yards. If he starts tacking on touchdowns like he did in Week 8 against Cleveland, Crabtree could really become a fantasy asset, especially in PPR leagues.  He’s currently only owned in 67% of ESPN leagues, so grab him if you still can.

Jake Ballard, TE, New York Giants

Ballard has surprised some folks lately, delivering consistent fantasy performances which are uncustomary for a rookie tight end.  Eli Manning appears to be very comfortable with Ballard, looking his way often.  In fact, Ballard has averaged 4 catches for 62 yards with three touchdowns over the past five weeks.  That has helped land him in the top 10 overall for tight ends in just about every fantasy league. It may be time for Dustin Keller, Vernon Davis, and Brandon Pettigrew owners to take a chance on Ballard, who is only owned in 30% of ESPN leagues.

Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens

I wrote an article on Torrey Smith back in Week 4, saying “Smith won't repeat his five catch/152 yard/three touchdown stat line anytime soon. But I'm pretty sure we would all be content with about half of that on a weekly basis.” Well, “about half of that” is what we’ve been getting lately from Smith, who has averaged more than three catches a game and 61 receiving yards over the past four weeks. So, now that it appears that Smith and Joe Flacco have developed some consistency, it may be time to take a flier on Smith, who is only owned in 24% of ESPN leagues.  Smith has a great matchup this week against the Seahawks, and also in Week 14 against the hopeless Colts secondary.

Roy Helu, RB, Washington Redskins

I wrote an article this week on why Helu will be a fantasy stud. Read it here.

Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Celek has surprisingly been the Eagles most targeted receiver in each of their past three games, averaging six catches for 65 yards while scoring twice during that period. Those are the numbers of a TE1 in most leagues, which makes Celek worth adding to most rosters.  He’s only owned in 15% of ESPN leagues, so he’s probably still available.  Michael Vick has looked very comfortable checking down to Celek lately, and the Eagles’ offensive line has improved its blocking, allowing Celek to run routes more often. Celek has very good upside in an explosive offense like the Eagles.

Laurent Robinson, WR, Dallas Cowboys

During the Cowboy’s past two games, Laurent Robinson has had more catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns than either Dez Bryant or Miles Austin.  With Austin out with an injured hamstring for two to four weeks, Robinson will step into the starting role, likely garnering even more targets.  In fact, when Robinson first subbed in for an injured Austin back in Week 4 versus Detroit, all he did was catch seven passes for 116 yards.  Robinson is a great pickup for teams hurting at wide receiver at least until Miles Austin returns to action. He’s only owned in 2% of ESPN leagues.

Denarius Moore, WR, Oakland Raiders

Carson Palmer has thrown 56 passes in a Raiders uniform.  16 of them have gone the way of Denarius Moore (that’s nearly 30%).  While Palmer didn’t complete the first seven of those 16 to Moore, the duo really began to develop chemistry at the end of the game against the Broncos, connecting on three of six passes with less than six minutes to go. If this is a sign of things to come, which I think it is, Moore could be the man to target on waivers, even more so than his fellow wideout Jacoby Ford, who shined in the game versus Denver (Ford had half as many targets as Moore). I wouldn’t be surprised to see Moore put up a stat line like he did in Week 2 (five catches for 146 yards and one touchdown) sometime soon, as four of the Raiders next seven opponents ranked in the bottom 12 in terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

Yellow Light

Mike Thomas, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Thomas has been disappointing as of late, not topping 36 receiving yards in his last three contests.  I give Thomas a break, though, as the Steelers, Ravens, and Texans are not easy matchups, and the addition of Mike Sims-Walker stole a little bit of Thomas’s thunder (as well as playing time).  Sims-Walker is done for the year with an injury now, and the Jaguars schedule gets easier starting this weekend versus the laughable Colts secondary.  Quarterback Blaine Gabbert is still a work in progress, but everyone has been able to throw against the Colts this year, so I expect a decent day from Thomas. He’s at least worth a spot start, and may start putting things together with Gabbert once again as the season comes to a close.

Jacoby Ford, WR, Oakland Raiders

Ford had an awesome game this past week, catching five passes for 105 yards and a touchdown.  However, he only received half as many targets as Denarius Moore (see above), so his performance may be hit or miss going forward.  Ford is worth a speculative add, and if Palmer keeps looking his way, could eventually be start-worthy.  I’d keep him on my bench for now.

Kendall Hunter, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Hunter probably isn’t worth starting right now.  Although Frank Gore did slightly sprain his left ankle versus the Redskins on Sunday, it looks as though he will be good enough to play come game time this week.  That means only a change of pace role for Hunter, but may turn into more if Gore aggravates his ankle further.  If Gore does end up missing multiple weeks due to aggravating the injury, Hunter would be in line for a great opportunity.  The rookie back has averaged 4.5 yards per rush on the season, and has looked nothing short of electric when playing this year.  It wouldn’t be completely surprising to see Gore miss time, as we are talking about a guy who hasn’t played a full season in five years. So if you are really hurting at running back, Hunter might be worth a look, as he’s still only owned in 5% of ESPN leagues.

Austin Pettis, WR, St. Louis Rams

Greg Salas is out for the year with a broken leg.  Austin Pettis will take over the slot role for the time being, and we all know how much Sam Bradford loves throwing to the slot receiver (need I mention Danny Amendola).  In fact, Bradford threw 14 passes the slot receiver’s way this past week.  If Pettis is the man to get all of those targets, he could put up some serious fantasy numbers in PPR leagues.  However, Mark Clayton is returning from injury this week, and could steal some of those targets away, if not all of them eventually. Nonetheless, given Bradford’s tendencies, this is a situation worth monitoring.

Earl Bennett, WR, Chicago Bears

What can I say?  Jay Cutler loves Earl Bennett. This dates back to their days playing together at Vanderbilt, when Cutler and Bennett had an awesome chemistry.  Well, in Bennett’s first game back in action since Week 2, he went off, catching all five of his targets for 95 yards and a beautiful fade touchdown.  Cutler has been hurting for that go-to guy the past several weeks, and now he has him.  Look for Bennett to add some safety to your lineup if you compete in a PPR leagues.

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