Patriots vs. Jets: Where Each Team Holds the Advantage in AFC East Showdown

The showdown between the New England Patriots and New York Jets this week may rank as the most important game each team has played this season so far.

The media has a tendency to make every game out to be the most important for their team in a long time. Although this is usually just a ploy to drive the sales of their newspapers and increase interest in the team they cover, the statement actually applies this week.

Both teams are 5-3. The Patriots are desperate for a win, coming off consecutive losses for the first time in a long time.

Meanwhile, the resurgent Jets are coming off back-to-back wins over tough opponents in the San Diego Chargers and Buffalo Bills.

As convincingly and surprisingly as the Patriots have lost, the Jets have won just as convincingly and surprisingly.

This one's going to be another nail-biter for both teams. How does it break down?

Patriots Pass Attack vs. Jets Pass Defense

The New England Patriots still possess the league's best pass attack from a yardage standpoint.

This is a moot point, though, when you take into account their incredible problems protecting Tom Brady over the past four weeks especially.

They have given up 13 sacks and a lot of pressure on their quarterback, albeit against some of the best defensive units in the league.

What's more, Brady has thrown five interceptions in the past four games, an unusual statistical anomaly for the Patriots signal-caller. If there's one guy who can turn that performance around, though, it's Brady.

He'll have his hands full against a Jets defense that certainly belongs in that category of the best units in the league, especially against the pass, where they rank seventh in the league and first in defensive passer rating, giving up a rating of just 59.43.

Brady has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year, but his rough patch makes this a tough read. It's hard to see him getting back on track against the Jets defense, as good as they've been against the pass, and especially at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Advantage: Jets

Patriots Rush Attack vs. Jets Rush Defense

Although the Patriots have been just average running the ball this year, the Jets have been well below average defending the run.

The Patriots attacked this weakness in the last meeting with draw plays and shotgun handoffs to BenJarvus Green-Ellis that were effective in keeping the aggressive Jets defense on its heels.

Although "The Law Firm" has been slowed down by turf toe the past couple of weeks, Kevin Faulk has returned to the lineup and is an incredibly effective running back out of the shotgun—both in blitz protection and on draw plays.

The way the Jets play the run will likely be predicated on how they defend the pass. They will likely give a little bit in run defense to gain an edge against the pass.

This means they will probably put defensive backs on the tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski for the most part, even if it means they lose a little against the run.

Depending on how effective or ineffective that strategy is, the Jets may have to switch it up. It didn't work too well for them in the previous meeting against the Patriots, as Gang Green gave up 152 yards rushing in Week 5, including two rushing touchdowns.

Advantage: Patriots

Jets Pass Attack vs. Patriots Pass Defense

Mark Sanchez remains little more than a serviceable quarterback, having yet to live up to the hype of the fifth-overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft.

He has a very average passer rating of 84.0 this season and has proven that he can't take a game over on his own.

Except, of course, when he faces the Patriots defense.

He put up a 95.6 passer rating against them in Week 5, and though New England showed some improvement last week against the Giants, they have shown enough chinks in the armor that the Jets should be able to exploit.

This is especially true at linebacker, where the Patriots have been exposed for their inability to cover. That held true even with Brandon Spikes in the lineup and Jerod Mayo at full health.

With Niko Koutouvides in the lineup for Sunday's tilt with the Jets, look for Sanchez to look for his favorite target—tight end Dustin Keller.

All specifics aside, the Patriots defense still yields a 91.14 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks and ranks 25th in the league in that category.

Although they took some steps forward last week, they have done so in past weeks this season only to take another step back the week after. This looks to be no different.

Advantage: Jets

Jets Rush Attack vs. Patriots Rush Defense

As bad as New England's defense has been against the pass, they've actually been decent against the run.

It may seem as though it's just a byproduct of teams throwing on them so often—the Patriots have been passed on the third-most times in the league, and run on just the seventh fewest—but their average of 4.3 yards per carry against them ranks a moderate 18th in the league.

4.3 YPC is enough to be effective, but not enough to be deadly on the ground.

Fortunately for New England, they may not have to worry much about the Jets being either effective or deadly.

Gang Green hasn't featured the usual ground-and-pound style offense we're used to seeing from them, only gaining 3.6 YPC this season, ranking fourth-worst in the league.

If New England is able to make the Jets offense one-dimensional, they severely improve their chances of winning. The way this matchup looks, that will be the case.

What's more, Albert Haynesworth isn't around to get completely taken out of plays anymore. Bonus!

Advantage: Patriots

Special Teams

Nick Folk remains an enigma among field-goal kickers.

He burst onto the scene his rookie year and made the Pro Bowl despite missing five field goals.

It quickly went downhill from there, though, as Folk missed 10 field goal tries in 2009 and nine in 2010.

There's not much enigma to Joe McKnight, though. The speedster had yet to find his role until bursting onto the scene as a kickoff returner this season.

He gashed New England with an 88-yard return in their previous meeting and averages 40.4 yards per return on the season. He has also taken a kickoff all the way for a touchdown this season.

T.J. Conley has done a good job of pinning opponents deep with a 43.1 yards-per-punt average and pinning opponents inside their own 20 on 14 of his 44 punts.

If he's able to do so against the Patriots, the Jets defense will have a much easier time of slowing down the Patriots offense, as the Giants were able to do when former Jets punter Steve Weatherford pinned them deep time and time again on Sunday.

Stephen Gostkowski hasn't been as automatic as he was in the past, having missed three field goals this season, including a chip shot from less than 29 yards out.

Zoltan Mesko has been an effective punter and has pinned opponents inside their own 20 on 19 of his 58 tries, while averaging 43.2 yards per punt.

Julian Edelman was highly ineffective returning punts against the Giants, and although part of that can be attributed to Weatherford's incredible punts, Edelman has clearly regressed in that role as the season has gone along.

Mike Westhoff is one of the game's best special teams coaches. Expect him to have his units fired up and ready to take advantage of some weaknesses in New England's units on Sunday.

Advantage: Jets

Coaching

It's always a chess match when Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan are leading the charge.

Each is a strategic master of the battle of the wits that is a football game, and would easily be in anyone's top five list of coaches they'd want on their team (if, of course, the top priority is winning and not having a likable coach).

The series between them stands at an even 3-3. Something's gotta give here.

Up to this point, these coaches have gotten the better of each other the same amount of times.

It's impossible to pick a winner right now, but we'll have a little better idea of where things stand after Sunday night.

Advantage: Wash

Key Player for a Patriots Win: Tom Brady

If the Patriots are going to win, Tom Brady has to play well.

The Patriots quarterback has thrown eight touchdowns and six interceptions in his team's three losses.

The Patriots' decreased ability to move the ball effectively can also be traced back to Brady, who has averaged fewer and fewer yards per attempt in every game this season.

As mentioned earlier, though, if there's one guy who can turn it around, it's Brady.

In order to do that, though, he'll have to get better protection from the offensive line. A unit that was once known for superb pass protection has given up 13 sacks on their quarterback in the past four games.

That's a problem they'll need to fix against one of the toughest defensive fronts in football.

Good luck, guys.

Key Player for a Jets Win: Mark Sanchez

Is it a cop-out to pick the two quarterbacks as the two key players in a win for their teams?

Maybe, but it rings true here without a doubt.

Sanchez has been hot and cold as an NFL quarterback and has been just as likely to play well (11 games with a passer rating above 90, Jets are 8-3 in those games) as he has been to play poorly (11 games with a passer rating below 60, Jets are 1-10).

He has also had a penchant for turning the ball over, coughing it up 14 times this season and 66 times in his career.

The Patriots are not a team that you can turn the ball over against, and in fact, winning the turnover battle against them is virtually a lock for a win.

Conclusion

Yep, this one's definitely going to be another nail-biter.

Despite winning two in a row, the Jets aren't playing like the best team in football—just like despite losing two in a row, the Patriots are far from one of the worst teams in the league.

The opposite ends of the spectrum suggest the Jets could run away with a win, but the way these two teams play each other so close every time they meet, it seems more likely that they'll crawl away—although still with a win.

The Jets have the personnel to execute the blue print for slowing down the Patriots offense—pressure on Brady, primarily up the middle, and physical coverage from the defensive backfield.

The Patriots have also had problems with communication, and the confusion created by the Jets' complex blitzes combined with a raucous crowd at "JetLife Stadium" should only extrapolate those problems.

Put it this way—if Brady bounces back from his recent spat of bad performances against one of the best pass defenses in the league on the road in a place where he hasn't won since 2007, it will likely be considered the most impressive bounce back of his career.

Prediction: Jets 21, Patriots 17

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter  @ErikFrenz.