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Putting an End to the Great Debate: Why the Mets Should Rid of Jose Reyes

Christopher BeniniNov 10, 2011

His range is impeccable. His arm rivals the most technological cannons. He runs fast enough to win Gold in the Olympics. He is coming off a season in which he won a batting title. How can you not keep Jose Reyes?

It is simple, really. Just do nothing. That is what Sandy Alderson did on July 31st, Major League Baseball's trade deadline. Alderson dropped the ball on that one.

He and the Mets management had the chance to land at least one legitimate prospect who could one day hoist a World Series trophy in Citi Field. Instead, he decided to keep Reyes and now will watch him walk away to free agency.

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It was said that the reason the Mets held onto Jose Reyes was that it was owed to the fans to see him finish the season and possibly win a batting title in a Mets uniform. He did win the batting title and what Alderson and the fans will have to ask later on is whether or not it was it worth it.

It was never said in all the rumors for whom Reyes could have been traded, but it is likely that it could have been a high-caliber prospect, based on how good of a player Reyes is.

After all this, though, how can the Mets not keep Reyes?

There are plenty of reasons to let Reyes walk. It is said that Reyes is seeking a long-term deal in excess of six years. Reyes turned 28 in June and is looking for a deal similar to Carl Crawford's from last season. Crawford signed a seven-year $142 million contract with the Boston Red Sox last December.

Is Reyes worth that type of contract?

You can't possibly throw that type of money at a player who has proven time and time again that he can't stay on the field.

Reyes, who has had hamstring issues throughout his career, has only played more than 150 games four of the eight seasons that he was expected to be with the club the full season. He even missed extended time during his most recent season with the Mets due to a hamstring strain.

So much of his game depends on his legs. He steals bases, he has great range at shortstop, and he is always among the league leaders in triples.

How much mileage does he have left, though? History suggests a decline in Reyes's production.

Take Rickey Henderson, for example. Henderson, baseball's most prolific base-stealer, averaged 89 stolen bases before the age of 28. Reyes is said to be looking for a six-year deal. During the same time frame of Ricky Henderson's career, he averaged 62 stolen bases.

While still prolific numbers, that is a steep decline in production, and one can expect a similar dip in the production of Jose Reyes.

Reyes finished 2011 with a BAPIP of .353, over 30 points higher than any season other than his rookie year. His career averages suggest that he had at least a little bit of luck on his side in 2011. The dramatic increase in numbers, especially batting average, suggest Reyes won't repeat in 2012, regardless of where he is playing.

The fact of the matter is that Jose Reyes does not fit into Alderson's system. Alderson believes in Moneyball, which preaches power and on-base percentage. Why spend well over $100 million for a player who doesn't fit into your system? Expect the Mets to let Reyes walk and use the money saved from not anteing up to Reyes to help the team in other aspects.

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