Bills vs Jets: Week 9 Preview and Keys to the Game

This Sunday, Nov. 6, the Buffalo Bills host the New York Jets at Ralph Wilson Stadium in a crucial AFC East division contest. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. EST. The Bills (5-2) are tied for first place in the AFC East with the New England Patriots, while the Jets (4-3) are one game back of the Bills. 

The Jets have won three of the prior four meetings and swept the Bills in 2010. While Rex Ryan is guaranteeing that the Jets will win the Super Bowl this year, their play on the field is not really backing up Ryan's prediction very well.

The Jets run defense, long a staple of a Ryan team, has dropped all the way to No. 25 in the league, while the Bills bolted past them, (No. 19) based on the strong game they had against the Redskins last weekend. 

The game will be a sell-out, and the Bills have announced that they are going to be wearing their white jerseys for the home game, something they haven't done in the past 25 years. Does that signify this is a special game or what? 

We will take a look at how this Sunday's game is shaping up and what are the keys to the game, and we'll end the presentation with my prediction for the game. 

Bills Offense Needs to Have a Big Game Against Jets Defense

In his prior three starts against the New York Jets, Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 128, 116 and 98 yards. That is basically anemic production. The Jets have been able to dial up various pressure packages that have forced Fitzpatrick into poor throws or not allowing him enough time to find the open receiver. 

In addition, the Jets have been able to stymie Fred Jackson during the past two years as well. In 2009, the leading rusher in both games against the Jets was Marshawn Lynch. In 2010, Fitzpatrick was the leading rusher in the first game, with 74 yards, while Jackson was the leading rusher in the season finale, but with just 35 yards on the day. Jackson is overdue to come up with a big game against the Jets, as is Fitzpatrick.

The Bills open up November with the Jets and will close November with the Jets. These two games will go a long way towards determining if the Bills are going to be able to win the AFC East division, as well as to see if they will reach the playoffs this year and end their 11-year playoff drought. 

The Jets won two at home, lost their next three on the road and then won two in a row again before they hit their bye week in Week 8. They are a streaky team, but the 0-3 record on the road this year is a good sign for the Bills chances on Sunday. The Jets did have one extra week to prepare for this game, and they are coming in to this game relatively healthy, which means that the Bills won't be catching any breaks from an injury standpoint. 

Bills Are Asking the Crowd to Be a Sea of White

Bills corner Drayton Florence took to his Twitter account to ask for Bills fans to wear all white on Sunday. He wants to see Ralph Wilson Stadium become a sea of white. 

The 2011 season has been a memorable one already. The Bills have already ended their losing streak against the New England Patriots and have won their first game in Toronto. They are scoring over 30 points a game, and despite going one for four in the red zone last Sunday, are ranked as the No. 2 team in red zone efficiency in the NFL. 

Now with the prospect of a sold-out crowd wearing a sea of white, what will that do to inspire the Bills? It will sure be easy to spot the Jets fans in the crowd, that is for sure. The other guy that won't be hard to miss is Rex Ryan, the vocal head coach of the Jets. Ryan had nothing but positive things to say about the Bills this week in his session with Buffalo media, as he refused to give the Bills any new bulletin board material to work with. 

The Bills are going to have to come up with some unique plays for this week. Based on how the game worked out against Washington last week, a 23-0 shutout, there was no need for the Bills to roll out any new plays or trick plays that they might have introduced to the team during their Week 7 bye. Those new plays could very well see the light of day this Sunday. 

Aaron Maybin and Shawn Nelson Are Both New York Jets

In case Bills fans missed this transaction, the New York Jets signed free agent Shawn Nelson during the past week. Since the Jets were off on a bye last week, you would think they would have wanted to have him on board for an extra week to try to grill him for as much information as he could possibly share.

But, for whatever it is that he does know, you can be sure he was asked to share as much as he can on the Bills offense, while Maybin would have been asked to do the same regarding the Bills defense. 

Maybin has actually made some plays for the Jets, coming up with three sacks and three forced fumbles on the season. He has come up with one sack in three of the four games that he has played in, and forced two fumbles against Miami. That is more production than he ever had in two years with the Bills team. I wonder if he still has the Buffalo figure still carved into the side of his head? 

Maybin is listed at 6'4" and 228 pounds. He is being used primarily as a pass rusher. But if I were Chan Gailey, I would be wanting to run the ball directly at Maybin every time that he was lined up on defense. Maybin is just too light to be effective in run defense, and the Bills know that better than anyone else. 

Regarding Nelson, the Jets already have a solid tight end in Dustin Keller, so Nelson provides them with some depth, but is too new to the team to be expected to produce this week. He does figure to play at the end of the month, assuming that he doesn't come up with his migraine headaches between now and then. 

Bills Health Issues

Kyle Williams will be missing the game on Sunday, and the team hopes to have a better handle on his injury next week, when he will have an MRI done on his foot. Other Bills that are expected to miss the game are Demetrius Bell and Aaron Williams. After that, things are up in the air regarding other injured Bills. 

Donald Jones has been able to return to practice, but isn't full speed yet. Chris Hairston is trying to come back from his ankle sprain sooner than the Bills imagined, but it is not yet known if he is going to have medical clearance to play this week. 

If Hairston can't start, then it looks like a repeat of last week, which means Andy Levitre plays left tackle and Chad Rinehart takes his spot at left guard. The Bills will need a solid game from their offensive line to try to slow down the Jets pass rush. 

Despite facing top-tier defensive lines this season in the Oakland Raiders, New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles, the Bills offensive line has held up remarkably well.

If you want to read the comments about how hard it is to sack Ryan Fitzpatrick, you can click on this link to a Washington Post article that talks about the struggles that defenses have in getting pressure on Fitzpatrick. 

The Evolution of Mark Sanchez

If you look back at the production of New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez, you will notice that his game is slowly but surely making progress across the board. It doesn't jump off the page at you, but in most areas of importance, you can see that he improves with each year of being in the league. 

His QB Passer Rating and rank in the NFL: 2011, ranked No. 16, rating of 83.0. 2010, ranked No. 27, rating of 75.3. In 2009, ranked No. 28, rating of 63.0. Sanchez is raising the bar by about 10 points on his rating every year. That is solid progress. 

In terms of completions, the progress is less noticeable. In 2009, he completed 53.8, then in 2010, it jumped one percent to 54.8. In 2011, you guessed it, one percent jump again to 55.8. NFL standard is 60 percent, so at this rate, he will achieve 60 percent somewhere around 2016. 

His touchdown to interception ratio has definitely showed strong improvement. In 2009, it was 12 TD's to 20 interceptions. The ratio improved to 17 TD's to 13 interceptions in 2010, and now he is having his best start, with a desired ratio of 2:1, with 12 TD's to only six interceptions. That is a sign that he is maturing. 

Sanchez was sacked 26 times as a rookie, and then 27 times in 2010. This year, he has been sacked 16 times, so he is on pace for about 35 sacks. From a yardage perspective, Sanchez averaged 163 yards as a rookie per game. In 2010, that number jumped to 206 yards, and in 2011, he is up to 221 yards per game. These are all signs that Sanchez is improving as a quarterback. Not in the elite level yet, but definitely inching his way up the list. 

Fred Jackson Can Help His MVP Chances This Weekend

Thanks to Chris Brown at Buffalo Bills.com for alerting us to news that Pro Football Focus came out with their finding that Fred Jackson is in the top three players in the NFL MVP race.

According to the article on Pro Football Focus: "A third place finish for Jackson, who has done more for the Bills than anyone could have imagined. Jackson is the most elusive back in the league having already forced 32 missed tackles and picking up 3.8 yards after contact."

The report showed that Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was ranked at No. 1 and Jets corner Darrelle Revis was No. 2. So, if the Bills can spring Jackson for a big game to keep him in the running for the NFL rushing title, that will also help his MVP chances. As another indication of how talented the AFC East, it should not be a surprise that Tom Brady, Patriots QB, trails Jackson at No. 4 on their list. 

While Matt Forte is all the rage in the NFC because of his production with the Bears, it is Fred Jackson that is the best counter to Forte in the AFC. If Jackson does not get either an All-Pro nod or make it to the Pro Bowl game this year, there is something seriously wrong with the NFL. Jackson has done everything you could possibly want, and then some more on top of that. 

Inside the Numbers: When the Bills Have the Ball

The Bills offense is ranked No. 10 overall in the NFL, generating 380.1 yards per game. The Jets have the No. 8 overall defense in the league, allowing an average of 323.6 yards per game. The Bills pass offense is ranked No. 13 in the league, at 239.6 yards per game, while the Jets pass defense is No. 7, by giving up only 196.7 yards per game. The Bills rush offense is No. 5 in the NFL with 140.6 yards per game, while the Jets rush defense is No. 25, allowing 126.9 yards per game. 

In the red zone, the Bills are No. 2 in the NFL, trailing only the Tennessee Titans. The Bills offense has generated 148 first downs on the year, which ranks them No. 11. The Jets defense is No. 8, as they have allowed only 130 first downs on the year. 

First downs will be a key for the Bills offense, as they lead the NFL by averaging 7.0 yards on every first down play. If they can maintain that average, that will greatly improve their chances on Sunday. 

The Bills offense has been scoring 30.1 points per game, which is No. 3 in the NFL. The Jets defense is giving up 21.7 points per game, ranked at No. 14. The Bills offense is converting 41.6 percent of their third downs this year (37/89), which ranks them No. 11. The Jets defense is stingy on third down, as they only allow 31.9 percent of third downs to be converted, and they are ranked No. 3 in that stat. 

The Jets figure to play Darrelle Revis on wherever Steve Johnson goes and then hope the rest of the defense can slow down Fred Jackson and contain Ryan Fitzpatrick and his band of no-name receivers. 

Inside the Numbers: When the Jets Have the Ball

The New York Jets offense is ranked No. 29 overall, as they are only producing 300.1 yards per game. The Bills defense, following their shutout of Washington last week, is now ranked No. 26, and they are giving up an average of 385.9 yards per game.

The Jets pass offense is No. 22, 207.7 yards per game, while the Bills pass defense is No. 24, giving up 265.9 yards per game. The Jets rush offense is No. 28, as they pick up 92.4 yards per game, while the Bills rush defense is now No. 20, giving up 120.0 yards per game. 

As you can see from the above numbers, the Jets offense is in the bottom third in all categories, which probably better explains their 4-3 mark. In their first four games, no running back topped 60 yards, but in the last three games, Shone Greene has ran for 83, 74 and 112 yards, so their running game is starting to get back into form.

In 2010, LaDainian Tomlinson ran for 133 yards in the first meeting, and then Joe McKnight went crazy for 158 yards. In 2009, it was Thomas Jones running for 210 and then 109 yards against the Bills. 

The Jets are averaging 24.6 points per game (ranked No. 11), which is rather surprising since they are ranked so low in the other categories. They are converting 38.3 percent of their third downs. which is No. 17 in the league. The Bills defense is allowing 39.5 percent of third downs to be converted, ranked at No. 14. The Bills defense is allowing 21.0 points per game, which is No. 12 in the NFL. 

The Jets will attempt to control the pace by running the ball and using play-fakes to allow Mark Sanchez to throw the ball down the field. 

Bills Pass Rush and Other Keys to the Game

The Bills pass rush erupted last Sunday for 10 sacks against the Washington Redskins. While nobody was expecting that kind of production, we don't want to see them shutout in sacks either. Something in the middle is to be expected, but the key to improving the overall defense is to continue to apply pressure the way that they did last Sunday. 

Marcell Dareus looks great at nose tackle, and he will see a tougher customer this Sunday in the form of Nick Mangold. The Bills need to force Mark Sanchez into some hurried throws, or at least rack up some sacks. Sanchez has already been sacked 16 times this year, so it is not impossible to get to him. 

The Bills still lead the AFC in the plus/minus turnover margin, with a plus-nine. The Jets are a plus-three. The Bills defense is tied with Detroit for the most turnovers in the NFL with 18. The Bills lead the NFL in interceptions with 14, and the Bills will be relying on the defense to try to give them good field position with a turnover or two, if the offense has a hard time moving the chains on the Jets defense. 

Final Thoughts and My Prediciton

Right now, the forecast calls for a partly cloudy day in Buffalo on Sunday, with a high of 56 degrees and a 10 percent chance for rain. The forecast also called for a white blanket to cover the stadium, but that would be the clothes the Bills fans are wearing, not the latest snowfall. Sounds like great football weather to me. 

The Jets can go back and look at the tape from the last time the Bills faced the Jets all they want. Brian Brohm was the starter, and the Bills had a number of players on defense that are no longer with the team. The current brand of the Bills team is something that the Jets haven't experienced before. Looking at the comments on the message boards, the Jets fans seem to think this game is going to be a blowout, and we can only hope that the Jets players feel the same way. 

I do anticipate a tight game, because when it comes to AFC East rival games, you can throw most of the stats out the window. The Jets players have laughed at the Bills in the past, but you can bet that the veterans will be sure to fill the newer Bills members on the significance of this game. I expect the Bills to be ready to play and looking to extract some revenge on being swept last year. 

Look for the Bills to apply just enough pressure on Sanchez to create several interceptions and for the Bills improved defense to do a better job at slowing down the Jets running game. I think Fitzpatrick will find a way to throw for over 200 yards on Sunday, and the Bills will come away with a victory. 

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills 24-New York Jets 20