NBA Free Agency: The Blueprint on Keeping Dwight Howard

The 2011 Orlando Magic season ended in disappointment.  After a complete face lift, which included the acquisition of Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu, the Magic lost a first round playoff series to the Atlanta Hawks.  The loss was a mighty blow to the Magic, who were pulling out all the stops in order to keep All-NBA center, Dwight Howard.

Howard has intimated he is interested in testing the free agent market and is expected to opt out of his $19 million deal in 2012.  Dwight is coming off he best professional season with averaging 21.9 points and 13.5 boards while taking home his third consecutive Defensive Player of the Year award.  If he decides to test the waters, he'll be the most sought after free agent next summer. 

The question is, "Can Orlando find a way to keep Dwight Howard?"

Quite frankly, it will be extremely difficult.  The Magic are in salary cap Hell, and their current collection of talent is probably not going to get it done. 

What can be done?  Well, here's what I would do...

Use the Projected Amnesty Clause to Buy out Gilbert Arenas

This is one of those situations that needs very little explanation. 

Former All-Star Gilbert Arenas has not been the same since he battled knee issues in 2007.  His season averages of 10.8 points and 3.9 assist are a fraction of what he produced early in his career, and he seems to have lost some of the explosiveness that made him an All-Star in Washington.

Arenas came to Orlando in a midseason trade which sent fellow former All-Star Rashard Lewis to the nation's capital.  Arenas struggled to find is role in Orlando, tallying only eight points and just over three assists per contest in 49 games for the Magic.

The book has not completely closed one "Agent Zero."  Arenas managed to play 70 games last season, and at age 30, still has time to re-invent himself in the NBA.  His time in central Florida, however, needs to come to an end, and this should be the first step in creating a Howard-friendly environment. 

Trade Hedo Turkoglu and J.J. Reddick for Marvin Williams and Kirk Hinrich

Hedo Turkoglu's second tour of duty with the Orlando Magic was nowhere near as successful as his first.  After signing with the Toronto Raptors in 2009, Turk was traded to Phoenix in hopes that the return to the states, and a union with All-Star point guard Steve Nash would reinvigorate his slumping stat line.  The move did not help, and the 6'10' forward found himself floundering until the Magic decided to give him another shot and acquired him in a blockbuster midseason move.

The move helped, but the brilliance Hedo had in 2008, when he averaged nearly 17 points for Orlando, could not be rekindled.

Four hundred miles to the north, the fellow Southeast division occupant Atlanta Hawks have a forward of their own that could be on the outs. 

Former second overall selection Marvin Williams has struggled to find his way in A-Town.  The 6'9" forward showed promise in 2007, where he averaged 14.8 points in 80 starts for the Hawks.  Since then, however, Williams production has decreased with every season.  Williams recorded a disappointing 10.4 point and 4.8 rebounds in 2010.

So why trade bad for bad? Every heard the phrase, "One man's trash is another man's treasure?"

Despite his struggles, Turkoglu connected on over 41 percent of his three point attempts last season.  Shooting was a sore spot for the Atlanta Hawks, who ranked 17th overall in both three point makes per game and three point percentage.  Add to that the potential loss of super sub Jamal Crawford, and Hedo's range could be a welcomed addition.  Throw in J.J. Reddick as a "sweetener" and the move could really bolster the Hawk bench.

Williams would need a change of scenery to fully reach his potential, and Orlando could be a great landing spot. He is owed over $23 million over the next three seasons, but at age 25, Williams could still have some upside.  Kirk Hinrich is still a capable starting point guard and has an $8 million deal that expires next season.  With Jeff Teague entrenched as the Hawks starting point guard, they may be willing to part with the eight-year veteran.

Next to Arenas' deal, Hedo Turkoglu's three years with over $33 million remaining is the next one that has to be moved, and getting Turk out of Orlando will most likely require taking back a bad contract in return.  Getting Williams and Hinrich could be somewhat of a lateral move, but if Williams returns to 2007 form, it would be well worth it.

Jameer Nelson to the Sacramento Kings for Jason Thompson and Francisco Garcia

Jameer Nelson came out of Saint Joesph's in 2004 with many questions.  The former AP Player of the Year was seen as an undersized guard who would struggle in the NBA.  Nelson surprised many by becoming on of the more efficient point guards in the NBA, contributing over 13 points and six assists while shooting over 40 percent from three point range.  Steady and consistent, Nelson earned an All-Star bid in the 2009 season.

That consistency is exactly what the Sacramento Kings are lacking, and Nelson would be a huge addition to that line-up.  His leadership and experience could help push the young Kings in the right direction.  His shooting ability would allow he and third-year talent Tyrek Evans to work seamlessly in the back-court together. 

Also, Nelson's skill set is quite similar to first year pro Jimmer Ferdette's, and his presence could help quicken the young shooters development.  Nelson is only on the books for just over $7 million and his contract expires in 2013, so his contract is quite reasonable.

Young forward Jason Thompson seems to have inexplicably fallen out of favor in Sacto.  After a promising 2010 campaign where he averaged 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds, Thompson found his minutes dramatically cut last season.  He production slipped, and the towering forward found himself in and out of the rotation for much of the season.  When the Kings traded for J.J. Hickson in June, that signaled the the eventual end of Thompson's time in the California capital. 

Francisco Garcia found himself in a similar position as Thompson.  Garcia missed 24 games due to injury last season.  Even when healthy, Garcia struggled to find a consistent role with the Kings.  The versatile swing-man managed a respectable 9.7 points per game, but the up and down playing time had a definite effect on his production.  With two more seasons at nearly $6 million per and a team option for a third, the Kings could have motivation to move Garcia if they could net a starter.

A swap between the two teams could be mutually beneficial.  Sacramento would get the experience the sorely lack for a reasonable price while getting rid of a player who figures to leave when his contract expires and a cumbersome contract attached to a player who does not figure to be in their future plans.

The Magic, on the other hand, would get a 6'11" 25-year-old power forward to pair with Howard and a versatile swing-man who can defend, handle the ball and shoot with range.

Sign a Swingman

The free agent class of 2011 do not have the sizzle of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, but there will be some quality players available.  Depending on the rules of the new CBA, the Orlando Magic should have their mid-level salary cap exception to sign a player.  As of right now, that number should fall between $4.5 and $5 million.

If that proves to be true, the Magic could make a sizable offer to a young shooting guard like Nick Young.  The former USC Trojan had a breakout season in 2010, averaging 17.4 points per game and connected on an impressive 38 percent from three point range.  Young is just beginning to realize his potential, and if the Magic were able to get him at a mid-level deal, it would be a huge win.

Young could fall out of the Magic's price range, but he is not the only option.  The Amnesty clause will be a huge factor in who will be available.  Former NBA champion Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon, Arron Affalo, Caron Butler, Rodney Stuckey, Shane Battier and Shannon Brown could all be available when free agency finally begins and all could be viable options for Orlando.

Would It Be Enough?

For the sake of this discussion, let's say the Magic get a huge break and can sign Nick Young and complete the aforementioned trades.  What are we looking at, and is it enough to keep Howard in Orlando?  Well, the line-up would look like this:

Dwight Howard at center with Jason Thompson and Marvin Williams flanking and Kirk Hinrich and Nick Young in the back-court.  You would have Francisco Garcia and holdovers Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson backing up your guard slots.  Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson would back up your front-court spots and Daniel Orton could spell Howard. 

Just as important, you only have a one year commitment to Hinrich, whose $8 million comes off the books next summer.  You have the injection of young, hungry, talented players eager to prove themselves in Williams and Thompson and a big-time offensive talent in Young.

Would this be enough for Howard to bypass free agency and stay with Orlando?  Quite honestly, it would take a miracle for him not to at least test the waters.  One thing is definite.  General Manager Otis Smith better get creative and try to make something of this magnitude happen, or they will have no chance to keep their superstar.