Why the San Francisco 49ers Will Beat the Cleveland Browns This Sunday

The San Francisco 49ers are off to their best start since 1998 under the new head coaching regime of Jim Harbaugh.  They are playing tough football. 

The most impressive thing about this team is the fact that Harbaugh is a rookie coach that had very little time to prepare his team due to the lockout. 

The Browns also have a rookie head coach and are off to a decent, yet somewhat ugly, .500 start to the 2011 season.  Do the Browns post a legitimate threat to go to the West Coast and upset the surprising 49ers?

I don't think so, and here is why.

Alex Smith Is Playing Better Than Colt McCoy

Colt McCoy has almost 300 more passing yards than Smith this year, but Smith has thrown the ball 100 less times than McCoy.  Smith's quarterback rating is 20 points higher, with a touchdown/interception ratio of 4-to-1, while McCoy's is 2-to-1.

Colt McCoy tends to run the ball when he cannot find passing options downfield.  This will not work against one of the best rushing defenses in the league.

Oddly enough, the Niners actually have more options to throw to downfield as well.  Braylon Edwards appears to be healthy to return, and he poses a strong threat for the deep ball—or at least to draw Joe Haden into coverage to open up the run for Frank Gore.

The Browns Rely on the Run Too Much

The Cleveland Browns rely on their ground-and-pound run game to get in the end zone.  This will not work as well against the second best defense in the NFL against the rush.  The 49ers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 28 games.

With all of the drama lately surrounding Hillis, it's hard to tell if he's really injured or having a contract dispute with the Browns.  Either way, the Niners will likely force Cleveland's McCoy to throw the ball, and Carlos Rogers will be waiting.  He is trying to prove his worth for a long-term contract, after all.

The Browns Beat the Seahawks 6-3 at Home

A win is a win, but this was an ugly one.  The Seahawks were down their starting quarterback and running back, and they could only beat them by three... at home.  I'd rather go to the dentist than watch these teams play.  I think the RedZone channel highlighted this game a total of three times during it's broadcast. 

Ugly football, just ugly.

You don't have to play pretty football to win, but you have to play better than they did against the Seahawks, and I find it hard to believe they will on the road.

The Browns' 3-3 Record Is Deceiving

The Browns are 3-3, but that is deceiving in itself.  Let's look at the teams that they have beat: Indianapolis Colts (0-7), Miami Dolphins (0-6) and the Seattle Seahawks (2-4).  They have victories over opponents with a combined record of 2-17.

The 49ers, on the other hand, are 5-1, and they have won three games in the Eastern Time Zone. They have beat teams such as the Seattle Seahawks (2-4), Cincinnati Bengals (4-2), Philadelphia Eagles (2-4), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) and the Detroit Lions (5-2).  That's a combined opponent record of 17-15. 

A considerable difference.

The 49ers' Running Game Is Key

Both of the 49ers' running backs are averaging over five yards per carry, whereas the Browns' Hillis and Hardesty are producing three yards per carry.  Gore and Kendall have scored five rushing touchdowns to Hillis and Hardesty's two.

The running game that can get going early will likely set the pace for the game.